By-elections ahead of May 2013

[westlondoner]

Jean Campbell was a great example of a community activist becoming an examplary community Councillor.

Bags of common sense, passion and compassion.

A total (and welcome) contrast to the phalanx of would-be Parliamentarians on LBH&F Council.

A very sad loss.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 21, 2012 5:51:58 GMT AdminSTB said:

Generally I take the rule on my websites that I post vacancies caused by resignation or disqualification as soon as I'm aware of them, while vacancies caused by death I post once a date has been set for the by-election.

To talk about the ward in general, it's pretty safe for Labour though a lot less so than your average Lanarkshire ward. If Labour gained the seat then they would indeed hold an overall majority of 1 on South Lanarkshire Council. It's also home to Lanarkshire's last remaining Lib Dem who, if they have any kind of local by election machine left, would be the main competitors to Labour. SNP came 3rd in May and look unlikely to hold a seat in an AV contest.

www.scottishelections.org.uk/scotland/l12/southlanarkshire.php#rutherglensouth

Obviously you know the area better than me, but I would have thought the LD vote in May held up so well here at least in part due to a personal vote for Robert Brown. I'm not sure how well that will transfer to a new candidate in the by-election. The SNP were only 40 votes behind the LDs in May and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them comfortably in second in a by-election, but Labour should be some way clear in front.

[middleenglander]

There appear to be 15 contests remaining before Christmas, including one for two seats. There are another 12 known to be pending whilst one seat has been identified which falls under the "six month" rule.

29th November - 3
Southwark LB, East Walworth - Labour died
Stratford-upon-Avon DC, Shipston - Conservative resigned
Western Isles UA, Uig Peninsula & North Lochs - SNP died

6th December - 6 contests for 7 seats
Brentwood BC, Shenfield - Conservative resigned
Cornwall UA, Gwinear - Gwithian & St Erth - Conservative died
Neath Port Talbot CB, Neath South - Labour died
South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne North & Penn - Conservative died
Sutton LB, Stonecot - Lib Dem resigned
Vale of White Horse, Sunningwell & Wooton (2 seats) - Conservative resigned and another disqualified

13th December - 1
Harrogate BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned

19th December - 3
Norwich BC, Crome - Labour resigned
Norwich BC, Nelson - Green resigned
Spelthorne BC, Sunbury Common - Lib Dem resigned

20th December -2
Gravesham BC, Meopham North - Conservative died
Kent CC, Gravesham Rural - Conservative died

Pending not yet called - 12
Bridgend CB, Bryncoch - Labour died 26th October
Chelmsford BC, Broomfield & The Walthams - Independent died 2nd November
Dudley MB, Woolaston & Stourbridge Town - Conservative died 9th October
Fenland DC, Hill - Conservative died 26th October
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill - Labour died 10th September
Hammersmith & Fulham LB, Wormholt & White City - Labour died 17th November
Herefordshire UA, Ross-on-Wye West - Conservative died 10th November
South Lanarkshire SUA, Rutherglen South - SNP died 20th November
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Village - Independent died 10th August
West Lindsey DC, Gainsborough East - Lib Dem died circa 30th October
Wirral MB, Heswall - Conservative died 7th November
Wirral MB, Leasowes & Moreton East - Labour died 2nd November

There is a possible by-election in the Scottish Borders, Leaderdale & Melrose Ward but the Borders Party councillor has not yet resigned.

The vacancy for Cornwall UA, Ludgvan, caused by the resignation of the former Independent Councillor, will remain unfilled until the May elections.

[piperdave]

Nov 21, 2012 21:41:39 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 21, 2012 5:51:58 GMT AdminSTB said:

Generally I take the rule on my websites that I post vacancies caused by resignation or disqualification as soon as I'm aware of them, while vacancies caused by death I post once a date has been set for the by-election.

To talk about the ward in general, it's pretty safe for Labour though a lot less so than your average Lanarkshire ward. If Labour gained the seat then they would indeed hold an overall majority of 1 on South Lanarkshire Council. It's also home to Lanarkshire's last remaining Lib Dem who, if they have any kind of local by election machine left, would be the main competitors to Labour. SNP came 3rd in May and look unlikely to hold a seat in an AV contest.

www.scottishelections.org.uk/scotland/l12/southlanarkshire.php#rutherglensouth

Obviously you know the area better than me, but I would have thought the LD vote in May held up so well here at least in part due to a personal vote for Robert Brown. I'm not sure how well that will transfer to a new candidate in the by-election. The SNP were only 40 votes behind the LDs in May and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them comfortably in second in a by-election, but Labour should be some way clear in front.

I wondered a bit about the history of this ward so I did some research. While not comprised exactly of the following 1999-2007 wards, it does include the vast majority of them, plus a small part of a neighbouring one: Stonelaw, Fernhill and Spittal/Blairbeth.

In 1999, the combined vote across the wards were as below (note: there were Conservative candidates in only two of the wards but vote share would have been similar). The Lib Dems would have won the ward over Labour on 41% of the vote:

Party	Vote	%
Lib Dem	2672	41.43%
Labour	2402	37.25%
SNP	1003	15.55%
Cons	372	5.77%

[/td][/tr][/table]

In 2003, a slight change in results with the SNP losing votes to the SSP, and the Lib Dems losing enough votes elsewhere to let Labour overtake and win. Again, the Conservatives only fought 2 of the wards, as did the SSP and Scottish Unionist Party:

Party	Vote	%	Change
Labour	1972	39.20%	1.95%
Lib Dem	1848	36.73%	-4.70%
SNP	509	10.12%	-5.44%
Cons	362	7.20%	1.43%
SSP	210	4.17%	4.17%
Unionist	130	2.58%	2.58%

The Lib Dems fell back in 2007 with the creation of the multi-member ward.Labour led them 38% to 25% and the SNP rising again to 1999 levels at 17%. 2012 saw Labour reach new heights at 44%, the SNP swallowing up votes from independents and small parties to poll 24% and the Lib Dems fractionally ahead on 25%.

On a side note, the existing Labour councillor here is Brian McKenna. He was councillor for the old Burgh ward between 1999 and 2007 but this is not part of Rutherglen South so no long history of a personal vote in the area. It should be noted that he was lower down the ballot paper than his fellow Labour candidate, whose vote increased by significantly more than Brian's running mate in 2007, but Brian was still elected over the quota on the first count.

I think this could be a really interesting fight. If Labour don't win on first preferences, who of the Lib Dem or SNP candidates are excluded first may change the outcome. We might even know what the alternative outcome might have been because this may be the first by-election where the full preference profiles (which shows how many voters ranked the candidates in the same combination) are released. South Lanarkshire has counted all of its by-elections electronically since 2007 and legislation to allow the profiles to be released is currently being considered in the Scottish Parliament.

[listener]

I am not sure whether this is the appropriate thread for it, but here is the polling district analysis of the votes in Rutherglen South ward on 3 May 2012. There are significant variations across the ward.

The number of first preference votes in Rutherglen South on 3 May 2012 was:
Lab 2095, Lib Dem 1181, SNP 1141, Con 232, Scottish Unionists 130 (Total 4779)
Lab 44%, Lib Dem 25%, SNP 24%, Con 5%, Scottish Unionists 3%

Here are the results by polling district:

SL090, SL091 (Calderwood Primary School):
Lab 409, Lib Dem 384, SNP 299, Con 90, Scottish Unionists 15 (Total 1197)
Lab 34%, Lib Dem 32%, SNP 25%, Con 8%, Scottish Unionists 2%

SL092 (Spittal Primary School):
Lab 226, Lib Dem 82, SNP 76, Con 4, Scottish Unionists 5 (Total 393)
Lab 58%, Lib Dem 21%, SNP 19%, Con 1%, Scottish Unionists 1%

SL093 (St. Mark’s Primary School):
Lab 200, Lib Dem 115, SNP 109, Con 33, Scottish Unionists 10 (Total 467)
Lab 43%, Lib Dem 25%, SNP 23%, Con 7%, Scottish Unionists 2%

SL094 (Fernhill Community Centre):
Lab 402, Lib Dem 148, SNP 160, Con 12, Scottish Unionists 37 (Total 759)
Lab 53%, Lib Dem 20%, SNP 21%, Con 2%, Scottish Unionists 5%

SL095 (Springhall Community Centre):
Lab 218, Lib Dem 120, SNP 114, Con 9, Scottish Unionists 13 (Total 474)
Lab 46%, Lib Dem 25%, SNP 24%, Con 2%, Scottish Unionists 3%

SL096 (Cathkin Primary School):
Lab 201, Lib Dem 57, SNP 121, Con 9, Scottish Unionists 25 (Total 413)
Lab 49%, Lib Dem 14%, SNP 29%, Con 2%, Scottish Unionists 6%

Postal Votes:
Lab 439, Lib Dem 275, SNP 262, Con 75, Scottish Unionists 25 (Total 1076)
Lab 41%, Lib Dem 26%, SNP 24%, Con 7%, Scottish Unionists 2%

[marksenior]

Richard Jungius , Conservative councillor for Cam Vale ward on West Dorset DC has sadly died .

[fwt]

Robin Brown, Conservative councillor for Aldwick East ward, Arun DC passed away last Wednesday.

[listener]

Tom Maginnis, Labour councillor for Coatbridge West ward on North Lanarkshire Council, sadly passed away whilst on a family holiday in Tenerife.

[middleenglander]

There are 12 contests remaining before Christmas, including one for two seats. There are another 15 known to be pending whilst 2 seats have been identified which fall under the "six month" rule.

6th December - 6 contests for 7 seats
Brentwood BC, Shenfield - Conservative resigned
Cornwall UA, Gwinear - Gwithian & St Erth - Conservative died
Neath Port Talbot CB, Neath South - Labour died
South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne North & Penn - Conservative died
Sutton LB, Stonecot - Lib Dem resigned
Vale of White Horse, Sunningwell & Wooton (2 seats) - Conservative resigned and another disqualified

13th December - 1
Harrogate BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned

19th December - 3
Norwich BC, Crome - Labour resigned
Norwich BC, Nelson - Green resigned
Spelthorne BC, Sunbury Common - Lib Dem resigned

20th December -2
Gravesham BC, Meopham North - Conservative died
Kent CC, Gravesham Rural - Conservative died

Pending not yet called - 15
Arun DC, Aldwick East - Conservative died 21st November
Bridgend CB, Bryncoch - Labour died 26th October
Chelmsford BC, Broomfield & The Walthams - Independent died 2nd November
Dudley MB, Woolaston & Stourbridge Town - Conservative died 9th October
Fenland DC, Hill - Conservative died 26th October
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill - Labour died 10th September
Hammersmith & Fulham LB, Wormholt & White City - Labour died 17th November
Herefordshire UA, Ross-on-Wye West - Conservative died 10th November
North Lanarkshire SUA, Coatbridge West - Labour died 29th November
South Lanarkshire SUA, Rutherglen South - SNP died 20th November
Stockton-on-Tees UA, Village - Independent died 10th August
West Lindsey DC, Gainsborough East - Lib Dem died circa 30th October
West Dorset DC, Cam Valley - Conservative died 26th November
Wirral MB, Heswall - Conservative died 7th November
Wirral MB, Leasowes & Moreton East - Labour died 2nd November

There is a possible by-election in the Scottish Borders, Leaderdale & Melrose Ward but the Borders Party councillor has not yet resigned.

Vacancies falling under "6 month" rule:
Cornwall UA, Ludgvan - Independent ill health resignation around 14th November
Norfolk CC, North Coast - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned on 26th November following election as Police & Crime Commissioner

[marksenior]

Shocking news !!!!!

Keith Johnson , Conservative councillor for Cromer ward on North Norfolk DC and his wife Andrea were found in their garden shot dead . Polive are apparently not looking for any suspects in this incident .

[AdminSTB]

Cllr Jayne Baxter (Lab - Fife, Cowdenbeath) is to become the new list MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife following the resignation of John Park MSP. No confirmation, but presumably a local by-election is very likely.

[marksenior]

David Billson , Conservative councillor for Perton East ward in South Staffs DC and Perton ward on Staffs CC has sadly died

[piperdave]

Dec 3, 2012 17:10:20 GMT AdminSTB said:

Cllr Jayne Baxter (Lab - Fife, Cowdenbeath) is to become the new list MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife following the resignation of John Park MSP. No confirmation, but presumably a local by-election is very likely.

I wouldn't necessarily have thought it very likely. The parties in Scotland haven't always been rushing to avoid dual mandates. Evens, perhaps!

[Tony Otim]

Dec 3, 2012 23:43:54 GMT piperdave said:

Dec 3, 2012 17:10:20 GMT AdminSTB said:

Cllr Jayne Baxter (Lab - Fife, Cowdenbeath) is to become the new list MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife following the resignation of John Park MSP. No confirmation, but presumably a local by-election is very likely.

I wouldn't necessarily have thought it very likely. The parties in Scotland haven't always been rushing to avoid dual mandates. Evens, perhaps!

I would have thought that the fact that Labour got over 65% of 1st preferences in this ward would make it slightly more likely they'd be tempted to go for the by-election

[Davıd Boothroyd]

17 January 2013, Brixton Hill ward, Lambeth LB.

Vice Steven Mark Ward Reed, resigned on election as Member of Parliament for Croydon North.

www.lambeth.gov.uk/Services/CouncilDemocracy/DemocracyElections/ElectionsVoting/BrixtonHillWardVacancy.htm

[marksenior]

Jacqui Maddison , Labour councillor for Lascelles ward on Darlington BC has sadly died
Joe Leach , Lib Dem councillor for Highbridge and Burnham Marine ward on Sedgemoor DC has resigned his seat .

[marksenior]

Carolle Ralph , SNP councillor for Heldon and Laich ward on Moray Council has resigned her seat . Apparently there has been some sort of hate campaign against her connected with the fact that she replaced former SNP councillor for the ward David Stewart in the May elections .

[middleenglander]

There are 6 contests remaining before Christmas, with 5 already called for January and 2 known in February. There are another 15 known to be pending whilst 3 seats have been identified which fall under the "six month" rule.

13th December - 1
Harrogate BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned

19th December - 3
Norwich BC, Crome - Labour resigned
Norwich BC, Nelson - Green resigned
Spelthorne BC, Sunbury Common - Lib Dem resigned

20th December -2
Gravesham BC, Meopham North - Conservative died
Kent CC, Gravesham Rural - Conservative died

17th January - 4
Fenland DC, Hill - Conservative died
Lambeth LB, Brixton Hill - Labour Died resigned following election as MP for Croydon North
Wirral MB, Heswall - Conservative died
Wirral MB, Leasowes - Labour died

24th January -1
Sedgmoor DC, Highbridge & Burnham Marine

7th February -1
Stockton on Tees, Village - Independent died

14th February - 1
South Lanarkshire SUA, Rutherglen South

Pending not yet called - 15
Arun DC, Aldwick East - Conservative died 21st November
Bridgend CB, Bryncoch - Labour died 26th October
Chelmsford BC, Broomfield & The Walthams - Independent died 2nd November
Darlington BC, Lascelles - Labour died around 4th Decenber
Dover DC, Maxton, Elms Vale & Priory - Labour died around 5th December
Dudley MB, Woolaston & Stourbridge Town - Conservative died 9th October
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill - Labour died 10th September
Hammersmith & Fulham LB, Wormholt & White City - Labour died 17th November
Herefordshire UA, Ross-on-Wye West - Conservative died 10th November
Moray SUA, Heldon & Laich - SNP resigned around 5th December
North Lanarkshire SUA, Coatbridge West - Labour died 29th November
North Norfolk DC, Cromer Town - Conservative died 2nd December
South Staffordshire DC, Perton East - Conservative died 30th November
West Dorset DC, Cam Valley - Conservative died 26th November
West Lindsey DC, Gainsborough East - Lib Dem died circa 30th October

There is a possible by-election in the Scottish Borders, Leaderdale & Melrose Ward but the Borders Party councillor has not yet resigned.

Vacancies falling under "6 month" rule:
Cornwall UA, Ludgvan - Independent ill health resignation around 14th November
Norfolk CC, North Coast - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned on 26th November following election as Police & Crime Commissioner
Staffordshire CC, Perton - Conservative died on 30th November

[The Bishop]

Dec 7, 2012 19:13:28 GMT middleenglander said:

Labour Died following election as MP for Croyden North

Hmmm

[Tony Otim]

Dec 7, 2012 19:34:48 GMT The Bishop said:

Dec 7, 2012 19:13:28 GMT middleenglander said:

Labour Died following election as MP for Croyden North

Hmmm

Quite an extreme reaction to his success