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Post by middleenglander on Dec 7, 2012 22:22:49 GMT
Hmmm  Quite an extreme reaction to his success At least it shows someone reads the bl00dy thing! |
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Post by listener on Dec 7, 2012 23:41:12 GMT
I was interested to read above that Carolle Ralph (SNP) has resigned her seat in Moray District, following a hate campaign against her connected with the fact that she replaced the former SNP councillor for the ward, David Stewart, in the May 2012 elections. Presumably this will enable David Stewart to win his seat back in the by-election.
It seems to me that both Carolle Ralph and David Stewart are victims of the alphabetical lottery, an interesting phenomenon emerging from the 2012 Scottish local elections, which were the first STV elections involving retiring councillors and new candidates.
So far I have had the time to work through the results in detail of 21 of the 32 councils and I have identified 27 cases, where a sitting councillor lost their seat to a new candidate of the same party, who appeared higher up the ballot paper. In two cases the sitting councillor lost their seat to a new candidate of the same
surname, but a preceding christian name – presumably a relative.
Of the 27 cases, 24 were SNP, 2 were Con and 1 was Lab.
I have not included cases where one independent defeated another, because they do not contest seats within a united group.
There were a further 2 cases, where the sitting SNP councilor lost their seat to a new candidate lower down the ballot paper.
Clearly further work is required to complete the study over all 32 councils and to look at the number of cases where the sitting councillor held their seat, with a new candidate higher up the ballot paper defeated.
At these elections, the SNP fielded a larger number of candidates than in 2007, with the intention of gaining more seats. Presumably this is why sitting SNP councillors are the main casualties of this phenomenon.
There is some significance in these results. The lesson is that, where a party decides to field an extra candidate, the sitting councilor should ensure that the new candidate is lower down the ballot paper, in case the new candidate takes their seat, rather than gaining a seat from another party.
SNP
Aberdeenshire (Troup) – Hamish Partridge replaced Bob Watson
Argyll and Bute (Cowal) – William Blair replaced Ron Simon
East Renfrewshire (Barrhead) – Tommy Reilly replaced Douglas Yates
Edinburgh (Leith) – Adam McVey replaced Rob Munn
Fife (Dunfermline Central) – Neale Hanvey replaced Lizz Mogg
Fife (Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages) – John O’Brien replaced Arthur Robertson
Glasgow (Pollokshields) – Norman MacLeod replaced Khalil Malik
Glasgow (Anderston/City) – Martin Docherty replaced Craig Mackay
Highland (Inverness West) – Allan Duffy replaced Pauline Munro
Moray (Heldon and Laich) – Carolle Ralph replaced David Stewart
Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Sgir’ Uige agus Ceann a Tuath nan Loch) – Bill Houston replaced Annie MacDonald
North Lanarkshire (Cumbernauld South) – Paddy Hogg replaced Willie Homer
North Lanarkshire (Fortissat) – Thomas Cochrane replaced Malcolm McMillan
North Lanarkshire (Mossend and Holytown) – David Baird replaced Paul Delaney
North Lanarkshire (Motherwell North) – Shahid Farooq replaced Gordon Stewart
Perth and Kinross (Kinross-shire) – John Giacopazzi replaced Sandy Miller
Perth and Kinross (Almond and Earn) – Henry Anderson replaced Wilma Lumsden
Renfrewshire (Johnstone South, Elderslie and Howwood) – Stephen McGee replaced Tracie McGee
South Ayrshire (Maybole, North Carrick and Coylton) – William Grant replaced Mairi Low
South Lanarkshire (Clydesdale North) – Vivienne Shaw replaced George Sutherland
South Lanarkshire (Hamilton North and East) – Lynn Adams replaced Barry Douglas
West Dunbartonshire (Lomond) – Jonathan McColl replaced Ronnie McColl
West Dunbartonshire (Leven) – Gail Robertson replaced May Smillie
West Dunbartonshire (Dumbarton) –Ian Murray replaced Iain Robertson
Con
Dumfries and Galloway (Annandale North) – Peter Diggle replaced Roger Grant
Scottish Borders (Mid Berwickshire) – John Greenwell replaced Trevor Jones
Lab
South Lanarkshire (East Kilbride West) – Janice McGinlay replaced Alan Scott
SNP (defeated by a new candidate lower on the ballot paper)
Clackmannanshire (Clackmannanshire West) – Les Sharp replaced Janis Paterson
Highland (Dingwall and Seaforth) – Graham MacKenzie replaced Peter Cairns
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 8, 2012 0:30:46 GMT
I did some stats on this a while back for the 2010 London elections. Looking only at wards where a party stood 3 candidates, the average votes cast for each position on the ballot paper was
1st Con 1868 +8.6% 605 wards
2nd Con 1800 +4.6%
3rd Con 1720
1st Lab 1921 +9.8% 611 wards
2nd Lab 1842 +5.3%
3rd Lab 1750
1st LD 1513 +15.8% 460 wards
2nd LD 1406 +7.6%
3rd LD 1307
1st Grn 584 +30.1% 198 wards
2nd Grn 508 +13.1%
3rd Grn 449
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 8, 2012 7:45:16 GMT
I understand that in Australia candidates names are printed in a random fashion in order to prevent this situation occuring.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Dec 8, 2012 16:41:45 GMT
I was interested to read above that Carolle Ralph (SNP) has resigned her seat in Moray District, following a hate campaign against her connected with the fact that she replaced the former SNP councillor for the ward, David Stewart, in the May 2012 elections. Presumably this will enable David Stewart to win his seat back in the by-election. It seems to me that both Carolle Ralph and David Stewart are victims of the alphabetical lottery, an interesting phenomenon emerging from the 2012 Scottish local elections, which were the first STV elections involving retiring councillors and new candidates. It is far too simplistic to say that David Stewart was the victim of alphabeticism. The SNP manage to balance their vote reasonably well in this ward. Carolle Ralph got 20%, David Stewart got 17% and, with this being a 4-member ward, meant that David Stewart only needed an extra 3% to get over the quota. Despite apparently being a popular figure by spearheading the Save Lossiemouth RAF campaign, he couldn't garner anything like enough transfers. The SNP are obviously not transfer-friendly in that part of the world. Which leads me to something I have been saying since before the elections, local parties need to start working out which alliances they would prefer and actually campaign on behalf of their allies for lower preferences. Had even a third of the Green candidate's next available preferences gone to David Stewart, he would have been elected. Leads me to believe that while he might be well-known, he's not that popular. Any analysis of whether alphabetic ordering adversely impacts on a candidate's chances needs to include details of the party's strategy in the ward and some estimation of how popular an existing councillor is. One of the heralded advantages of STV is that voters can choose between candidates of the same party rather than put up with someone they don't like because they wear a particular colour of rosette. Perhaps that's what happened here. |
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 24,585
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Dec 8, 2012 19:48:26 GMT
17th January Lambeth LB, Brixton Hill - Labour resigned following election as MP for Croydon North Martin Tiedemann has been selected as the Labour candidate for this by-election.  He was a Councillor in Croydon (1998 to 2006) (he was the youngest ever councillor in Croydon's history when he started at the age of 22) and moved to Lambeth in December 2010. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 8, 2012 20:19:15 GMT
17th January Lambeth LB, Brixton Hill - Labour resigned following election as MP for Croydon North Martin Tiedemann has been selected as the Labour candidate for this by-election. He was a Councillor in Croydon ... A fair exchange is no robbery. |
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Post by marksenior on Dec 12, 2012 11:59:10 GMT
Enid Paylor , Independent councillor for Aycliffe West on Durham CC/UA has sadly died .
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Post by anthony on Dec 13, 2012 8:09:08 GMT
I did some stats on this a while back for the 2010 London elections. Looking only at wards where a party stood 3 candidates, the average votes cast for each position on the ballot paper was 1st LD 1513 +15.8% 460 wards 2nd LD 1406 +7.6% 3rd LD 1307 I'm glad I was above average! (I was 3rd on the list) |
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Post by listener on Dec 15, 2012 19:44:18 GMT
The late Enid Paylor of Newton Aycliffe served for many years as an Independent on Sedgefield District Council. She was elected as an Independent in May 2007 to the West ward of Great Aycliffe Town Council and in May 2008 to the Aycliffe West ward of Durham County Council.
I believe that she joined the Labour groups on both councils in May 2008 and has served as a Labour member ever since.
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Dec 16, 2012 1:56:47 GMT
I wouldn't necessarily have thought it very likely. The parties in Scotland haven't always been rushing to avoid dual mandates. Evens, perhaps! I would have thought that the fact that Labour got over 65% of 1st preferences in this ward would make it slightly more likely they'd be tempted to go for the by-election Latest info I have is that Jayne Baxter will not be resigning as a councillor anytime soon. The next electorally convenient point would be the Euros in June 2014. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 17, 2012 15:03:18 GMT
There are 5 contests remaining before Christmas, with 7 already called for January and 2 known in February. There are another 13 known to be pending whilst 5 seats have been identified which fall under the "six month" rule.
19th December - 3
Norwich BC, Crome - Labour resigned
Norwich BC, Nelson - Green resigned
Spelthorne BC, Sunbury Common - Lib Dem resigned
20th December -2
Gravesham BC, Meopham North - Conservative died
Kent CC, Gravesham Rural - Conservative died
17th January - 4
Fenland DC, Hill - Conservative died
Lambeth LB, Brixton Hill - Labour Died resigned following election as MP for Croydon North
Wirral MB, Heswall - Conservative died
Wirral MB, Leasowes - Labour died
24th January - 2
Herefordshire UA, Ross-on-Wye West - Conservative died
Sedgemoor DC, Highbridge & Burnham Marine - Lib Dem resigned
31st January - 1
Dudley MC, Woolaston & Stourbridge Town - Conservative died
7th February -1
Stockton on Tees, Village - Independent died
14th February - 1
South Lanarkshire SUA, Rutherglen South
Pending not yet called - 13
Arun DC, Aldwick East - Conservative died 21st November
Bridgend CB, Bryncoch - Labour died 26th October
Chelmsford BC, Broomfield & The Walthams - Independent died 2nd November
Darlington BC, Lascelles - Labour died around 4th Decenber
Dover DC, Maxton, Elms Vale & Priory - Labour died around 5th December
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill - Labour died 10th September
Hammersmith & Fulham LB, Wormholt & White City - Labour died 17th November
Moray SUA, Heldon & Laich - SNP resigned around 5th December
North Lanarkshire SUA, Coatbridge West - Labour died 29th November
North Norfolk DC, Cromer Town - Conservative died 2nd December
South Staffordshire DC, Perton East - Conservative died 30th November
West Dorset DC, Cam Valley - Conservative died 26th November
West Lindsey DC, Gainsborough East - Lib Dem died circa 30th October
There is a possible by-election in the Scottish Borders, Leaderdale & Melrose Ward but the Borders Party councillor has not yet resigned.
Vacancies falling under "6 month" rule:
Cornwall UA, Ludgvan - Independent ill health resignation around 14th November
Derbyshire CC, Buxton West - Conservative disqualified on 11th December following suspended sentence for fraud
Durham UA, Aycliffe West - Independent sitting as Labour died 11th December
Norfolk CC, North Coast - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned on 26th November following election as Police & Crime Commissioner
Staffordshire CC, Perton - Conservative died on 30th November
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Post by westlondoner on Dec 18, 2012 17:49:40 GMT
Labour have chosen their candidate for the Wormholt and White City by-election in LB Hammersmith and Fulham - Max Schmid, who stood in North End ward in 2010 (the only split ward in LBHF in 2010).
Rumour is that the by-election is being called for 7th February.
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Post by marksenior on Dec 19, 2012 13:53:09 GMT
Phil Harrison , Labour councillor for Royton South on Oldham MBC has sadly died .
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Post by marksenior on Dec 20, 2012 12:36:59 GMT
Frances Moseley , Lib Dem councillor for Berrylands ward on Kingston LBC has sadly died
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 20, 2012 21:34:40 GMT
The case of David Gawn (suspended Labour), Harrow-on-the-Hill ward (Harrow LB) meanders on, but we are much closer to a by-election after yesterday’s events. Facing charges of attempted theft, he pleaded guilty at Harrow Crown Court to a substitute charge of fraud. No details of the crime were aired at the hearing, but the wording of the charge specifies that between 25 July and 1 August 2011 Gawn posted a £7,000 cheque in the name of victim Dennis O’Brien to a Lloyds TSB bank employee. It is said he “dishonestly and intentionally made a representation which was untrue or misleading.” Gawn will be sentenced on 20 December. Gawn was sentenced at Harrow Crown Court today to ten weeks imprisonment suspended for 12 months. He was also given a curfew order for six weeks. The 10 week sentence is just under the 3-month period which, if broken, would have led to his disqualification. I suspect he will just tough it out and that a by-election will not occur. We will see. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 21, 2012 17:26:59 GMT
There are 7 contests called for January, 4 known so far during February and 1 already in March. There are another 13 known to be pending whilst 6 seats have been identified which fall under the "six month" rule.
17th January - 4
Fenland DC, Hill - Conservative died
Lambeth LB, Brixton Hill - Labour resigned following election as MP for Croydon North
Wirral MB, Heswall - Conservative died
Wirral MB, Leasowes - Labour died
24th January - 2
Herefordshire UA, Ross-on-Wye West - Conservative died
Sedgemoor DC, Highbridge & Burnham Marine - Lib Dem resigned
31st January - 1
Dudley MC, Woolaston & Stourbridge Town - Conservative died
7th February -3
Forest of Dean DC, Berry Hill - Labour died
Hammersmith & Fulham LB, Wormholt & White City - Labour died
Stockton on Tees UA, Village - Independent died
14th February - 1
South Lanarkshire SUA, Rutherglen South - SNP died
7th March - 1
Moray SUA, Heldon & Laich - SNP resigned
Pending not yet called - 13
Arun DC, Aldwick East - Conservative died 21st November
Bridgend CB, Bryncoch - Labour died 26th October
Chelmsford BC, Broomfield & The Walthams - Independent died 2nd November
Darlington BC, Lascelles - Labour died around 4th Decenber
Dover DC, Maxton, Elms Vale & Priory - Labour died around 5th December
Kingston-upon-Thames LB, Berrylands - Lib Dem died 18th December
North Lanarkshire SUA, Coatbridge West - Labour died 29th November
North Norfolk DC, Cromer Town - Conservative died 2nd December
Oldham MB, Royton South - Labour died 19th December
Runnymede BC, Foxhills - Conservative died 12th December
South Staffordshire DC, Perton East - Conservative died 30th November
West Dorset DC, Cam Valley - Conservative died 26th November
West Lindsey DC, Gainsborough East - Lib Dem died circa 30th October
There is a possible by-election in the Scottish Borders, Leaderdale & Melrose Ward but the Borders Party councillor has not yet resigned.
Vacancies falling under "6 month" rule - 6:
Cornwall UA, Ludgvan - Independent ill health resignation around 14th November
Derbyshire CC, Buxton West - Conservative disqualified on 11th December following suspended sentence for fraud
Durham UA, Aycliffe West - Independent sitting as Labour died 11th December
Kent CC, Gravesham East - Conservative resigned 21st December on election for the Gravesham Rural Division
Norfolk CC, North Coast - Conservative sitting as Independent resigned on 26th November following election as Police & Crime Commissioner
Staffordshire CC, Perton - Conservative died on 30th November
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Post by marksenior on Dec 21, 2012 18:32:37 GMT
A notice of vacancy has been published for Whitestonecliffe ward on Hambleton DC , a Conservative seat , reason for vacancy not given . The last three elections ( at least ) in the ward have not been contested .
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Dec 22, 2012 8:06:01 GMT
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Post by marksenior on Dec 27, 2012 14:15:19 GMT
John Colebrook , Conservative councillor for Humberston/New Waltham on NE Lincs UA has sadly died .
Brian Beale Conservative councillor for Wilnecote ward on Tamworth BC and Stonydelph ward on Staffs CC has sadly died .
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He was a Councillor in Croydon (1998 to 2006) (he was the youngest ever councillor in Croydon's history when he started at the age of 22) and moved to Lambeth in December 2010.
