By-elections - 15th November 2012

[Tony Otim]

Nov 16, 2012 18:44:27 GMT marksenior said:

Vote totals for all except the Wealden contest

Con 20,431
Lab 17,917
LDem 7,129
UKIP 3,821
Green 2,911
Nats 799
Others/Ind 2,813

Mark - do you have the number of candidates to go with those totals. I think it was only the Conservatives who contested all?

[thirdchill]

Nov 16, 2012 18:40:23 GMT Tony Otim said:

So running totals for the day:

LDs gained 4 lost 0
Greens gained 1 lost 0
Inds gained 2 lost 2
Conservatives gained 3 lost 5
Labour gained 1 lost 4

Bit of a contrast to the other results today.

Certainly was, especially for the lib dems. They've done quite well on the local by-elections today.

[middleenglander]

Can anyone shed light on why the Wealden result is still outstanding?

[middleenglander]

The results for Thursday's 37 local council elections can be summarised by:

Conservatives defended 20 seats, retaining 15 and losing 5:

BATH & NORTH EAST SOMERSET UA,Chew Valley North - Conservative retained, 21% swing Conservative to Lib Dem since 2011
BOURNEMOUTH UA, Littledown & Iford - Conservative retained, 0.6% dwing Conservative to Lib Dem since 2011
BRADFORD MB, Wharfedale - Conservative retained, 3.7% swing to Labour since May and 2.1% since 2011
BURY MB, Church - Conservative retained retained, 3.9% swing to Labour since May and 0.9% since 2011
BURY MB, North Manor - Conservative retained, 0.8% swing to Labour since May but 5.4% Labour to Conservative since 2011
CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE UA, Biggleswade South - Conservative retained, 6.5% swing to Labour since 2011
CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE UA, Silsoe & Shillington - Independent gained from Conservative and polling a 55% share
CHILTERN DC, Central - Conservative retained, 8.3% swing Lib Dem to Conservative with Conservative share unchanged at 74%
DAVENTRY DC, Brixworth - Conservative retained polling 64% in straight fight with Greens
EAST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, Oundle - Conservative retained, ~5% swing Conservative to Labour since 2011 in the Corby constituency
EDEN DC, Penrith Pategill - Lib Dem gained from Conservative, 18% swing Conservative to Lib Dem in a small market town ward
HARROGATE BC, Rossett - Lib Dem gained from Conservative, 24% swing Conservative to Lib Dem since 2011, 10% since 2010
NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE DC, Hitchwood, Offa & Hoo - Conservative retained, 2.1% swing to Labour since May and 4.1% since 2011
NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE DC, Letchworth South East - Conservative retained, 7.8% swing from Labour to Conservative since May and 1.3% since 2011
POOLE UA, Branksome East - Conservative retained, 4.4% swing to Lib Dems since 2011
RYEDALE DC, Norton West - Lib Dem gained from Conservative, 17.6% swing to Lib Dems since 2011 although Conservative share only 1½% down
ST EDMUNDSBURY BC, Risbygate - Green gained from Conservative in a 2 seat ward where there was a sole Conservative candidate in 2011
SWINDON UA, Blunsdon & Highworth - Conservative retained, 1.9% swing to Labour since May
WEALDEN DC, Heathfield North & Central - Conservative retained, around 2% swing Conservative to Labour since 2011 but UKIP came second from nowhere
WEST SUSSEX CC, Midhurst - Conservative retained polling 78% in straight fight with UKIP

Labour defended 13 seats, retaining 9 but losing 4:

CHERWELL DC, Banbury Ruscote - Labour retained, 2½% swing from Conservatives since May and 4½% since 2011
DUMFRIES & GALLOWAY UA, Annandale North - Conservative gained from Labour, negligible swing since May
HARLOW BC, Toddbrook - Labour retained, 2.1% swing from Conservatives since May and 6.8% since 2011
LIVERPOOL MB, Knotty Ash - Labour retained, 1% swing from Lib Dems since May but 18% since 2011
MANCHESTER MB, Ardwick - Labour retained, 0.9% swing from Green since May
MELTON BC, Egerton - Independent gained from Labour, ~9% swing from Labour to Independent since 2011
NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE MB, Ouseburn - Labour retained, 9% swing from Lib Dem since May but 2.3% to Lib Dem since 2011
NORTH TYNESIDE MB, Wallsend - Lib Dem gained from Labour, 11.8% swing from Labour to Lib Dem since May and ~20% since 2011
OLDHAM MB, Failsworth West - Labour retained, 2.6% swing to UKIP since May
RUGBY BC, New Bilton - Labour retained, 5% swing from Conservatives since both May and 2011
WALSALL MB, Bloxwich West - Labour retained, 4.3% swing to Conservatives since May but 5% to Labour since 2011
WAVENEY DC, Beccles South - Conservative gained from Labour, ~9% swing Labour to Conservative since 2011
WOLVERHAMPTON MB, Park - Labour retained, 4% swing to Conservative since May, but 2.6% Conservative to Labour since 2011

Liberal Democrats retained both seats defended:

HAVANT BC, Battins - Lib Dems retained, 17.7% swing from Labour since May
WATFORD BC, Central - Lib Dems retained, 3.0% swing to Labour since May but 2.3% Labour to Lib Dem since 2011

Independents lost both seats defended

CONWY BC, Deganwy - Conservative gained from Independent in a ward they won the second seat in both 2012 and 2008
MERTHYR TYDFIL BC, Cyfarthfa - Labour gained from Independent group probably due to split Independent vote.

[The Bishop]

Nov 16, 2012 18:01:15 GMT Tony Otim said:

Nov 16, 2012 17:09:57 GMT middleenglander said:

Melton, Egeron is an Independent gain from Labour.

Independent 253
Labour 232
Conservative 92

I have all the results bar Wealden, Heathfield North & Central. The Council Office are shut - does anyone know the detail?

That means Labour no longer present on Melton council, doesn't it?

Well, we elected seven councillors there last year - so not quite sure where you are getting that from

[AdminSTB]

Nov 16, 2012 11:00:09 GMT andrea said:

Merthyr - Cyfarthfa : Lab 385 Ind 364 Ind 289 Plaid 101 Con 26

Any idea which independent is which? Still not up on council website AFAICS.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jenkins (Merthyr Independents) 364
Eddery (Independent) 289

[AdminSTB]

Thanks, David

[liberalsteve]

LIVERPOOL Knotty Ash saw Labour hold this former Lib Dem seat - the Liberal Party made sizeable in roads on the collapsing Lib Dem Vote

Labour win 68.6 % 1213 ( - 3.4 %)
Lib Dem 8.4 % 149 ( - 4.6 %)
Liberal Party 7.4 % 131 ( +4.6%)
UKIP 5.7 % 101 (did not stand last May)
Green 2.0 % 36 (- 3.6%)
Con 2.3 % 40 (- 1.9%)
Eng Dem 2.8% 50 (did not stand last May)
TUSC 2.7% 48 ( + ).1%)

[middleenglander]

ConservativeHome indicated the Conservatives held Wealden, Heathfield North & Central but still no figures!!

[AdminSTB]

I think Wealden is using the "Florida method" of counting.

[middleenglander]

Wealden, Heathfield North & Central

Conservative 685 - 49.1%
UKIP 301 - 21.6%
Labour 225 - 16.1%
Lib Dem 184 - 13.2%

The number of valid votes was 1,395 compared to 2,666 ballot papers counted in May 2011 - a relative turnout of 52% - whilst the actual turnout in 2011 was 43.6%. There was a by-election in September 2010 when the number of valid votes was 1,159 or over 200 fewer than on Thursday.

In May 2011 there were 3 Conservative candidates against a sole Labour candidate. Labour polled 741 votes with 28% of those voting giving them one of their votes. The "top" Conservative candidate got a vote from 66% of those voting whilst the "bottom" candidate got a vote from 62%.

In September 2010, the Conservative polled 69% of the vote against 31% for the Lib Dem, a similar position to 2007.

Mathematically on Thursday
* Conservative + UKIP = previous 3 election results
* Labour + Lib Dems = previous 3 election results

In these circumstances, swing calculations are not particularly meaningful but one of a couple percent Conservative to Labour is a best estimate.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 17, 2012 11:03:05 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 16, 2012 18:01:15 GMT Tony Otim said:

That means Labour no longer present on Melton council, doesn't it?

Well, we elected seven councillors there last year - so not quite sure where you are getting that from

Sorry - must have been a glitch in my own records Will sort it out.

EDIT - I think I must have reversed the Labour and independant figures after the locals last year. Corrected now.

[listener]

Here is a summary of the town and parish council results on 15 November:

Bampton (Mid Devon) – 5 seats under contest, following a mass resignation from the town council – Putting Bampton First 418/332/261/202/191/162, Non Political Description 193, No Description 69/54
Elected: Putting Bampton First 4, Non Political Description 1

Biggleswade (Holme ward) (Central Bedfordshire), following the death of Peter Vickers (Con) – Con 146, Independent 130, Lab 121 – Con hold

Bracknell (Town Centre ward) (Bracknell Forest, Berkshire), following the resignation of Neil Ellis (Con) – Lab 94, Con 84, Green Party 12, Lib Dem 10 – Lab gain from Con

Brixham (Berry Head with Furzeham ward) (Torbay, Devon), following the resignation of Vic Ellery (Ind) – Brixham Residents against Tesco Superstore 1012, Lib Dem 892 – BRATS gain from Ind

Chesham (Waterside ward) (Chiltern, Buckinghamshire), following the resignation of Jane Bramwell (Lib Dem) – Con 344, Lib Dem 122, Green Party 86, Lab 75, UKIP 37 – Con gain from Lib Dem

Colnbrook with Poyle (Slough, Berkshire), following the resignation of Mike Nye (Ind) – Lab 270, UKIP 117, No Description 116, No Description 57, Non Political Description 47 – Lab gain from Ind

Hailsham (South and West ward) (Wealden, East Sussex), following the resignation of Tony Williams (Con) – Hailsham Independents 510, Con 432 – Hailsham Independents gain from Con

Haywards Heath (Ashenground ward) (Mid Sussex), following the disqualification of Warren Hill (Con) for non-attendance – Con 362, Lab 345, Lib Dem 343, UKIP 90 – Con hold

Hebden Royd (West End ward) (Calderdale, West Yorkshire), following the resignation of Wesley Downs (Lab) – Lab 220, Independent 101, Lib Dem 96 – Lab hold

Hebden Royd (White Lee ward) (Calderdale, West Yorkshire), following the resignation of James Allison (No Description) – Lib Dem 261, Lab 136 – Lib Dem gain from Ind

Horsforth (Hall Park ward) (Leeds), following the resignation of Pat Williams (Lib Dem): Lib Dem 525, Con 413 – Lib Dem hold

Raunds (Saxon ward) (East Northamptonshire), following the resignation of Colin Atkinson (Con) – Con 600, Lab 583 – Con hold

Rawdon (Greenacre ward) (new parish in Leeds) (2 seats): Ind 140, Con 110, Lab 94, Ind 57 – elected Ind 1, Con 1

Rawdon (Larkfield ward) (new parish in Leeds (3 seats): Con 171/159/144, Independent 160, Non Political Description 116/84, Lab 92/79/66 – elected Con 2, Ind 1

Rawdon Parish Council final tally (with uncontested wards): Con 7, Ind 2

Rhyl (Plastirion ward) (Denbighshire), following the resignation of Diana Hannam (Con): Lab 290, Con 237 – Lab gain from Con

Risca East (Pontymister Upper ward) (new community in Caerphilly) (2 seats) – Independent 112, No Description 100, Lab 84/66
Elected: 1 Independent and 1 No Description

Risca East (Trenewydd ward) (new community in Caerphilly) (3 seats) – Independent 126, Lab 111/94/84
Elected: 1 Independent and 2 Lab

Risca East Community Council final tally (with uncontested wards): 5 Lab, 3 Independent and 1 No Description

Saddleworth (Greenfield ward) (Oldham), following the retirement of David Atherton (Con) – Con 465, Lab 296 (the Lib Dem candidate withdrew his nomination, claiming the race was a waste of money) – Con hold

St. Stephen (Park Street ward) (St. Albans, Hertfordshire), following the resignation of Dick Downs (Lib Dem) – Park Street Residents Association 436, Lib Dem 367, Lab 114, No Political Affiliation 95 – Residents Association gain from Lib Dem

Sandhurst (Owlsmoor ward) (Bracknell Forest, Berkshire), following the resignation of Grahame Hearnshaw (Con) – Con 269, Lib Dem 223, Lab 114 – Con hold

Shepton Mallet (Shepton West ward) (Mendip, Somerset), following the resignation of Jeff Curtis (Ind) – Con 261, Lib Dem 236, Lab 235 – Con gain from Ind

Stowmarket (North ward) (Mid Suffolk), following the resignation of Deborah Hall (Con) – Con 357, Green Party 260, Lab 232, Lib Dem 67 – Con hold

Yate (South East ward) (South Gloucestershire), following the death of Arthur Adams (Lib Dem) – Lib Dem 386, Lab 94, Con 78, Independent 46 – Lib Dem hold


The following elections were not contested politically:

Asfordby (Asfordby ward) (Melton, Leicestershire) (2 seats) – 369/347, 118
Bridge (Canterbury, Kent) – 300, 165
Langport (South Somerset) (2 seats) – 151/73, 62/58/58
Marsham (Broadland, Norfolk) – Independent 84, No Description 75
Rhuddlan (Denbighshire) – 438, 184
Rottingdean (Brighton and Hove) (4 seats) – No Political Description 341, Independent 231, No Description 221/203/188, Independent 170, No Description 162/158/102
Saltford (Bath and North East Somerset) – No Description 336, 279, Independent 165
Sapiston (St. Edmundsbury, Suffolk) (2 seats) – 42/28, 13/10/2
Sheet (a new parish set up in East Hampshire) (8 seats) – 276/223/192/183/142/142/137/130, 126/117/115/111/107/72/42
Wadhurst (Wadhurst ward) (Wealden, East Sussex) (2 seats) – 278/254, 241/222/154


Returned unopposed (mainly non political):

Benenden (Tunbridge Wells, Kent)
Claypole (South Kesteven, Lincolnshire)
Honington (Village ward) (St Edmundsbury, Suffolk)
Nuthall (East ward) (Broxtowe, Nottinghamshire) – No description gain from Con
Rawdon (new parish in Leeds) (Cragg Wood ward) – Con
Rawdon (new parish in Leeds) (Layton ward) – 3 Con
Risca East (Pontymister Ty Sign ward) (new community in Caerphilly) – 3 Lab and 1 Ind
Risca West (Danygraig ward) (new community in Caerphilly) – 1 No Description
Risca West (Pontymister Lower ward) (new community in Caerphilly) – 1 No Description
Risca West (Risca Town and Fernlea ward) (new community in Caerphilly) – 2 No Description and 1 Independent
Risca West (Ty Isaf Fields ward) (new community in Caerphilly) – 2 Independent and 1 No Description
Rudford and Highleadon (Forest of Dean, Gloucestershire)
Salhouse (Broadland, Norfolk) – 3 candidates for 7 seats
Saughall (Cheshire West and Chester)
Walberswick (Suffolk Coastal)
Wye with Hinxhill (Ashford, Kent)

No candidates:

Scarcroft (Leeds)