Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 9, 2017 7:01:30 GMT
20th April Cheshire West and Chester
BlaconLabour resigned  2015: Lab 3,579/3,349/3,119, Con 1,109/979/941, UKIP 1,054/1,037/805, Green 482/303/227 2011: Lab 2,103/1,906/1,725, Con 850/772/735, UKIP 302/297 2008: Lab 1,417/1,364/1,188, Con 904/885/826, UKIP 238/214, LD 232/225/193 Steve INGRAM (Independent) Jack JACKSON (The Conservative Party Candidate) Lizzie JEWKES (Liberal Democrats) Ben POWELL (Labour Party Candidate) London Borough of Harrow
Kenton EastLabour died (“With trademark humour and keen eye for detail, her constant pursuit of improvement meant that her approval was always the bellwether for quality in the council.”)  2014: Lab 1,695/1,561/1,550 (dec.), Con 1,310/1,200/1,178, ILG 534/459/377 2010: Lab 2,672/2,442 (dec)/2,236, Con 2,031/1,995/1,756, LD 1,002 2006: Lab 1,623/1,477 (dec)/1,433, Con 1,231/1,066/1,009, LD 371/340/228, PIP 118 Annabel Rebecca CROFT (Liberal Democrats) Herbert Winford CROSSMAN (UKIP) Nitesh HIRANI (Conservative Party) Nishit PATEL (Labour Party) |
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ColinJ
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Post by ColinJ on Apr 15, 2017 7:10:14 GMT
London Borough of Harrow Kenton East 2014: Lab 1,695/1,561/1,550 (dec.), Con 1,310/1,200/1,178, ILG 534/459/377, UKIP 4532010: Lab 2,672/2,442 (dec)/2,236, Con 2,031/1,995/1,756, LD 1,002 2006: Lab 1,623/1,477 (dec)/1,433, Con 1,231/1,066/1,009, LD 371/340/228, PIP 118 I've just added the UKIP vote in 2014 that you've missed off. Worth also mentioning that the abbreviation ILG is being used for 'Independent Labour Group', and that PIP is an abbreviation for 'People's Independence Party', a group set up in 2002, and revived in 2006, by the UKIP candidate in the current by-election. Note for pedants: Kenton East contains a handful of homes with a London postal address - NW9 - the only place this occurs in the LB of Harrow. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2017 9:17:04 GMT
London Borough of Harrow Kenton East 2014: Lab 1,695/1,561/1,550 (dec.), Con 1,310/1,200/1,178, ILG 534/459/377, UKIP 4532010: Lab 2,672/2,442 (dec)/2,236, Con 2,031/1,995/1,756, LD 1,002 2006: Lab 1,623/1,477 (dec)/1,433, Con 1,231/1,066/1,009, LD 371/340/228, PIP 118 I've just added the UKIP vote in 2014 that you've missed off. Worth also mentioning that the abbreviation ILG is being used for 'Independent Labour Group', and that PIP is an abbreviation for 'People's Independence Party', a group set up in 2002, and revived in 2006, by the UKIP candidate in the current by-election. Note for pedants: Kenton East contains a handful of homes with a London postal address - NW9 - the only place this occurs in the LB of Harrow. Thanks Colin. I used your site for those results so there's no excuse for me missing anything off really. |
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Apr 15, 2017 11:31:55 GMT
Two interesting elections. The received wisdom is that Labour are strong in London despite Corbyn, so a Tory win in Kenton would be pretty devastating. And Labour aren't safe in Blacon either.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2017 11:37:44 GMT
And Labour aren't safe in Blacon either Even though they beat the Tories by close to 3 to 1 on GE day? |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 15, 2017 12:10:24 GMT
Blacon.
Some thoughts.
Will the absence of Greens be a minor benefit to Labour?
Will the absence of UKIP be a major benefit to Conservatives?
Will the advent of a LD be a major benefit to Conservatives?
What is known about the Independent? High profile/former party candidate or little known chancer?
Any special factors in the ward affecting any or all parties?
On balance will these features net out to a Conservative advantage? If so, big enough to cause a problem? Doubt it. This was a constituency trending to Labour and unless the Corbyn and May effects are larger than I suspect, this looks like a hold because of the margin.
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ColinJ
Labour
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Post by ColinJ on Apr 15, 2017 12:16:32 GMT
Two interesting elections. The received wisdom is that Labour are strong in London despite Corbyn, so a Tory win in Kenton would be pretty devastating. And Labour aren't safe in Blacon either. A Tory win in Kenton East would be a huge blow for Labour at a national level, much more so than the recent loss in Middlesbrough. The reason being that in Greater London, as you comment Adrian, Corbyn's toxicity seems to be neutralised by a 'London' effect that benefits Labour. A Harrow Tory activist I know was certain it would be a Tory gain when I spoke to him towards the end of March; however he erroneously thought that Goldsmith had 'won' the ward in the 2016 London Mayor election. (I chided him (in a playful manner) for not consulting my web site!) Two days ago, in a conversation with Mrs ColinJ, he was markedly less optimistic. I know the Tories fancy their chances in Kenton East, but in the nearly 40 years of the ward's existence they have never pulled it off. I decline making a prediction. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 15, 2017 12:48:54 GMT
If Labour loses seats like Blacon ...... then they are really in #softbrownsmelly
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 15, 2017 12:56:13 GMT
The Lib Dem candidate in Blacon is Lizzie Jewkes. She contested Chester in 2010 and Wirral South in 2015. She is also the originator of the "let's raise the basic rate tax allowance" policy espoused by the Lib Dems in 2010 and now adopted by the Conservatives.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 15, 2017 12:58:48 GMT
Kenton.
Some thoughts.
What is the ethnic breakdown here? I note both majors are putting one up. Are both from same ethnic group?
The UKIP candidature looks to be a real spoiler for the Conservatives unless it draws off more WWC Labour than Conservative votes.
No ILG should really help Labour?
Advent of LD candidate will probably help Conservatives?
Must have been a real Conservative chance without the UKIP candidate.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2017 13:01:09 GMT
Two interesting elections. The received wisdom is that Labour are strong in London despite Corbyn, so a Tory win in Kenton would be pretty devastating. And Labour aren't safe in Blacon either. A Tory win in Kenton East would be a huge blow for Labour at a national level, much more so than the recent loss in Middlesbrough. The reason being that in Greater London, as you comment Adrian, Corbyn's toxicity seems to be neutralised by a 'London' effect that benefits Labour. A Harrow Tory activist I know was certain it would be a Tory gain when I spoke to him towards the end of March; however he erroneously thought that Goldsmith had 'won' the ward in the 2016 London Mayor election. (I chided him (in a playful manner) for not consulting my web site!) Two days ago, in a conversation with Mrs ColinJ, he was markedly less optimistic. I know the Tories fancy their chances in Kenton East, but in the nearly 40 years of the ward's existence they have never pulled it off. I decline making a prediction. On my figures, adjusted for postal votes, he did |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2017 13:05:49 GMT
Though I suspect that Colin J means the "error" was thinking Goldsmith won it before they were taken into account.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on Apr 15, 2017 14:11:46 GMT
And Labour aren't safe in Blacon either Even though they beat the Tories by close to 3 to 1 on GE day? Historically this is quite a tight ward. Labour should still win it but not by much. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2017 14:22:18 GMT
Even though they beat the Tories by close to 3 to 1 on GE day? Historically this is quite a tight ward. Labour should still win it but not by much. Historically Blacon has always been the safest Labour ward in Chester and has never been close |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2017 14:39:55 GMT
Kenton. Some thoughts. What is the ethnic breakdown here? It's over 60% Asian with around 75% of that being Indian in origin. 14% White British, 12% White other, 7% Black. In religious terms, 45% Hindu, 29% Christian, 11% Muslim |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2017 14:59:00 GMT
Those GLA results in Kenton East in full (adjusted for postal votes
Mayor
Con 1622 42.6%
Lab 1556 40.8%
LD 111 2.9%
UKIP 103 2.7%
Grn 95 2.5%
List
Lab 1746 44.9%
Con 1418 36.5%
UKIP 173 4.5%
LD 106 2.7%
Grn 94 2.4%
Constituency
Lab 2035 52.3%
Con 1259 32.4%
UKIP 229 5.9%
LD 164 4.2%
Grn 113 2.9%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 15, 2017 15:06:36 GMT
One interesting thing to note is that though this is still basically a safe Labour ward (notwithstanding Khan's under-performance) it has clearly been trending gradually away from Labour in recent years. And while many parts of Middlesex, including parts of Harrow, have been transformed electorally as their ethnic composition has been transformed, with many formerly safe Tory areas becoming safely Labour, this area is if anything less solid for Labour now than it was 40 years ago and more when of course the population was overwhelmingly 'White British'
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Post by John Chanin on Apr 20, 2017 13:33:27 GMT
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Post by timokane on Apr 20, 2017 15:02:31 GMT
Can anyone confirm whether or not the Lib Dem candidate in Harrow was ever on Treasure Hunt ? Wikipedia states that she lives nearby in Wimbledon.
Annabel Rebecca CROFT (Liberal Democrats)
Herbert Winford CROSSMAN (UKIP)
Nitesh HIRANI (Conservative Party)
Nishit PATEL (Labour Party)
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 20, 2017 15:13:24 GMT
Can anyone confirm whether or not the Lib Dem candidate in Harrow was ever on Treasure Hunt ? Wikipedia states that she lives nearby in Wimbledon. Annabel Rebecca CROFT (Liberal Democrats) Herbert Winford CROSSMAN (UKIP) Nitesh HIRANI (Conservative Party) Nishit PATEL (Labour Party) nearby???  i think it says she lives in combe which is more Kingston than Wimbledon... |
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