Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 21, 2017 13:26:14 GMT
Which does suggest something other than just the national picture at work here. This is clearly so. But, again, it's the contrast between the two wards that intrigues. |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 21, 2017 14:29:52 GMT
Cheshire West & Cheshire, Blacon - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 1,556
| 59.1%
| +1.6%
| -0.1%
| -5.5%
| -4.7%
| Conservative | 574
| 21.8%
| +4.0%
| +4.0%
| -4.3%
| -4.4%
| Independent * | 434
| 16.5%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Liberal Democrat | 70
| 2.7%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| UKIP |
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| -16.9% | -17.1% | -9.3% | -10.0% | Green |
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| -7.7% | -6.0% |
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| Total | 2,634
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| 42%
| 47%
| 81%
| 88%
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* Independent stood as UKIP in 2015 Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 1¼% / 2% since 2015 and ~ ½% / 0% since 2011 Council now 38 Labour, 36 Conservative, 1 Independent
Harrow, Kenton East - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Conservative | 1,585
| 52.3%
| +19.5%
| +19.4%
| +16.7%
| +16.4%
| Labour | 1,328
| 43.8%
| +1.3%
| +1.0%
| -3.0%
| -1.7%
| Liberal Democrat | 65
| 2.1%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| -15.4%
| -16.5%
| UKIP | 54
| 1.8%
| -9.6%
| -10.3%
| from nowhere
| from nowhere
| Independent Labour |
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| -13.4% | -12.2% |
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| Total | 3,032
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| 76%
| 81%
| 53%
| 56%
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Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 9.1% since 2014 and ~ 9¾% / 9% since 2010 Council now 33 Labour, 27 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
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Post by ColinJ on Apr 21, 2017 14:42:36 GMT
Council now 33 Labour, 27 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat |
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Post by middleenglander on Apr 21, 2017 14:47:05 GMT
Council now 33 Labour, 27 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 Liberal DemocratThanks, now corrected. |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Apr 21, 2017 15:04:14 GMT
Huge blow for Labour with GE coming up. Not all of this can be blamed on Temple Politics. Its not good, no. Though it was noted upthread that - unlike some of Harrow - this ward has become less safe for Labour in recent years, despite the fact demographics "should" have moved it their favour. So what is going on there? There is no doubt that Bob Blackman, Tory MP for Harrow East, has been doing all the right things with regard to interacting with the different local communities, especially sections of the Hindu electorate, in his constituency. For example, he recently put down an EDM about Kashmir (although, apparently no other MP signed it). Quite a 'touchy' subject, whichever way you look at it. I really don't think demographics are changing hugely, although maybe younger Hindus are becoming more aspirational than their parents .... and maybe this is preventing Labour being an automatic first choice for them. Outsiders have also meddled in Harrow East politics. There might still be an influence following the disgraceful 'caste' leaflets that were distributed during the 2015 GE;  Bob Blackman was somewhat equivocal in his condemnation of the leaflets, for the full story see: www.indy100.com/article/how-a-labour-candidate-came-to-be-attacked-with-this-anticaste-leaflet-in-london--eJOE4N_Kxb |
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Post by Ruggerman on Apr 21, 2017 15:33:50 GMT
Its not good, no. Though it was noted upthread that - unlike some of Harrow - this ward has become less safe for Labour in recent years, despite the fact demographics "should" have moved it their favour. So what is going on there? There is no doubt that Bob Blackman, Tory MP for Harrow East, has been doing all the right things with regard to interacting with the different local communities, especially sections of the Hindu electorate, in his constituency. For example, he recently put down an EDM about Kashmir (although, apparently no other MP signed it). Quite a 'touchy' subject, whichever way you look at it. I really don't think demographics are changing hugely, although maybe younger Hindus are becoming more aspirational than their parents .... and maybe this is preventing Labour being an automatic first choice for them. Outsiders have also meddled in Harrow East politics. There might still be an influence following the disgraceful 'caste' leaflets that were distributed during the 2015 GE; Bob Blackman was somewhat equivocal in his condemnation of the leaflets, for the full story see: www.indy100.com/article/how-a-labour-candidate-came-to-be-attacked-with-this-anticaste-leaflet-in-london--eJOE4N_KxbHighly tasteless. Also pretty irritating that the word in the iron is in fact backwards. Maybe that is the subliminal message; 'This leaflet is backward'. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 21, 2017 17:28:14 GMT
This is a good result. The Independent Labour vote may not all have gone back to Labour? Once sheared away to independent it is much more likely to be a vote 'in play'. I imagine in that ward the collapsing UKIP vote went either Conservative or not voting? As suspected, an increasingly aspirational settled sector of the Indian demographic is shifting away from Labour and mainly to the Conservatives. This could bode well in a number of seats? For the government party 7-years in to be picking up opposition seats must be a considerable worry.
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 22, 2017 10:09:53 GMT
The previous Harrow byelection last month saw the disappearance of "Independent Labour" benefit Labour, this time it was the Tories. Which does suggest something other than just the national picture at work here. Would have thought it was the same with every immigrant population that has matured and become more successful. They become more aspirational and more right wing. that is a perfectly correct political observation, coupled with the fact that the Tory party become less hostile to people once they have become more affluent  - however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 22, 2017 10:15:50 GMT
that is a perfectly correct political observation, coupled with the fact that the Tory party become less hostile to people once they have become more affluent - however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. Maybe this is the start of it turning again to the Conservatives. not if Hounslow,Ealing or Croydon are anything to go by. But as we all know there are lots of different political currents operating at the same time, so we'll have to come back in twenty years and see ....  |
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Post by andrewteale on Apr 22, 2017 10:30:40 GMT
that is a perfectly correct political observation, coupled with the fact that the Tory party become less hostile to people once they have become more affluent - however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. Maybe this is the start of it turning again to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have won the popular vote in Harrow at all four borough elections this century. On two of those occasions Labour won an overall majority and on a third Labour were the largest party in a hung council. |
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 22, 2017 11:42:16 GMT
Maybe this is the start of it turning again to the Conservatives. The Conservatives have won the popular vote in Harrow at all four borough elections this century. On two of those occasions Labour won an overall majority and on a third Labour were the largest party in a hung council. someone say "wrong winner" so that david can say "no such thing"  |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 22, 2017 19:46:57 GMT
Would have thought it was the same with every immigrant population that has matured and become more successful. They become more aspirational and more right wing. that is a perfectly correct political observation, coupled with the fact that the Tory party become less hostile to people once they have become more affluent - however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. That is not true of this particular ward however which was almost always Labour held even when the borough was not controlled by Labour. The wards which have shifted lonb-term to Labour are mostly those which make up the Harrow West constituency |
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Post by yellowperil on Apr 23, 2017 8:02:25 GMT
that is a perfectly correct political observation, coupled with the fact that the Tory party become less hostile to people once they have become more affluent - however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. That is not true of this particular ward however which was almost always Labour held even when the borough was not controlled by Labour. The wards which have shifted lonb-term to Labour are mostly those which make up the Harrow West constituency what a gubber |
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- however Harrow has been moving towards labour rather than away in the last twenty years. The idea that Harrow would be controlled by Labour on a regular basis would have been greeted with derison forty years ago. 
