|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Apr 13, 2017 22:34:58 GMT
Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2017 22:39:53 GMT
Con hold Piddle Valley.
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 13, 2017 22:55:07 GMT
"Election Data @election_data 5m5 minutes ago
That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"
(Sorry to repeat this if Andrew already mentioned it in his blog, I haven't got round to reading it yet).
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Apr 13, 2017 22:57:47 GMT
"Britain Elects @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago
Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) result:
CON: 38.0% (+8.3)
LAB: 35.5% (-8.2)
IND: 24.1% (-2.5)
GRN: 2.4% (+2.4)
Chgs. from 2015."
|
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Apr 13, 2017 22:59:49 GMT
Coulby Newham ward was created in 2003 from part of the former Newham ward, which was grossly oversized and also included the whole of the current Marton West ward which is reliably Tory. In 1999 its three seats split 2Lab/1C, and that appears to be the previous Tory win in the area.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 13, 2017 23:11:32 GMT
Don't think we've had the raw numbers yet:
MIDDLESBROUGH Coulby Newham
Jacob YOUNG (The Conservative Party candidate) 501
Annalise HIGGINS (Labour Party) 468
Mike ALLEN (Independent) 318
Emma ALBERTI (Green Party) 32
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Apr 13, 2017 23:18:47 GMT
Damn! I so nearly went for Conservative and had I read the Andrew notes before voting I would have done. At least I placed him in front of Labour but overcooked the Independent chance on history rather than gut. When a frequent visitor to Rosedale I often drove through this ward and my train from Castleton passed through it. This is the sort of area on the change all over England. Imagine that would have put in a bit of a professional effort to the seat.
|
|
Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
|
Post by Pimpernal on Apr 14, 2017 6:51:51 GMT
For the Twitterati @arglesjonathan has some interesting insights into why Labour lost this seat...
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Apr 14, 2017 6:59:04 GMT
Andrew describes Coulby Newham as a council estate but looking at photos it looks more like new private housing? If Labour are losing council estates to the Tories they are really in deep trouble! Losing a new private estate is not so surprising!
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 14, 2017 7:02:16 GMT
For the Twitterati @arglesjonathan has some interesting insights into why Labour lost this seat... Interesting is one way of describing it: He then cites the previous by-election result in the ward in which the 'strong third party' won 48 votes and Labour were nearly 400 votes ahead of the third placed Conservatives |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 14, 2017 7:07:21 GMT
Andrew describes Coulby Newham as a council estate but looking at photos it looks more like new private housing? If Labour are losing council estates to the Tories they are really in deep trouble! Losing a new private estate is not so surprising! 32% Social housing in 2011 which is consistent with a majority of the housing having been council built. Some 70s estates don't look so obviously like council houses as earlier estates. It does look like there's quite a lot of newer private housing in the south of the ward though |
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Apr 14, 2017 7:08:51 GMT
For the Twitterati @arglesjonathan has some interesting insights into why Labour lost this seat... Not much insight from Mr Argles I fear! He blames the Lib Dems not standing but fails to mention the Indy (or look at previous vote shares). Then he gives a "statistical lesson" by saying that 10% (approx, I did not read the table on my phone but I know what it says!) Lib Dem 2015 voters "match" 10% of Lab voters going the other way! If he is Labour's by-election guru then hard times are ahead! |
|
|
|
Post by erimus58 on Apr 14, 2017 7:17:17 GMT
Damn! I so nearly went for Conservative and had I read the Andrew notes before voting I would have done. At least I placed him in front of Labour but overcooked the Independent chance on history rather than gut. When a frequent visitor to Rosedale I often drove through this ward and my train from Castleton passed through it. This is the sort of area on the change all over England. Imagine that would have put in a bit of a professional effort to the seat. Ward - no
Constituency -yes
|
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Apr 14, 2017 7:18:05 GMT
Andrew describes Coulby Newham as a council estate but looking at photos it looks more like new private housing? If Labour are losing council estates to the Tories they are really in deep trouble! Losing a new private estate is not so surprising! 32% Social housing in 2011 which is consistent with a majority of the housing having been council built. Some 70s estates don't look so obviously like council houses as earlier estates. It does look like there's quite a lot of newer private housing in the south of the ward though Thanks! Yes, probably at least 50% built as council or housing association. Bad result for Labour to add to the list but I doubt if the Tories would ever win that ward in a high turnout election.. |
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Apr 14, 2017 7:26:36 GMT
Maybe more to the point, a tiny Green vote of 32, but a Tory majority of 33. If those green votes came from Labour....
|
|
hedgehog
Non-Aligned
Enter your message here...
Posts: 6,826
|
Post by hedgehog on Apr 14, 2017 7:32:54 GMT
Figures from Piddle Valley
Conservatives 303 61%
Green Party 195 39%
Turnout 24%
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Apr 14, 2017 7:34:40 GMT
What has happened to the Piddle Valley? Obviously not recount territory. Why are West Dorset Council p..ing about? and then as I was writing this  |
|
|
|
Post by La Fontaine on Apr 14, 2017 7:54:36 GMT
Living just along the way from the smoggies, the impression I get from folks in the North East is that they are split between Labour and Tories. Conservatives are in quite a happy mood, as their core support is coming out happy with brexit, and glad May is in charge and Labour voters are simply put off by Corbyn, The over riding message is that all politicians are corrupt, why believe any of them. So not surprised that the Conservatives won, not by any great enthusiasm for them but by the lack of support for Labour and the apathy amongst their voters. I wouldn't be surprised with the re writing of the boundaries that the Conservatives don't gain Darlington as still to hear a positive word about Jenny Chapman. Which is why Labour is proposing to hive off Heighington from a revised Darlington. Unlikely to get away with it, however. |
|
albion
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,270
|
Post by albion on Apr 14, 2017 7:57:37 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Apr 14, 2017 8:12:15 GMT
welcome, albion. You sound as though you will find soul mates on this forum.
|
|
