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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 14:11:26 GMT
I know it's standard practice when somebody dies, but I'm beginning to think there must have been two Kaufmans - the one who has died, and the one we have all heard about in recent years. Are you saying this is another politician who might receive unfsvourable coverage now he is dead and the newspapers can become emboldened? He's probably not, but Kaufman was very marmite. Lots of people in Manchester alone loved him, but equally plenty couldn't stand him. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 27, 2017 14:11:27 GMT
I agree, but for the Lib Dems finishing second here with lets say 15% of the vote will mean nothing, 'so what', will be the expression on everyones lips, for us it would mean a whole lot more. If I was Caroline Lucas, I would have Tim Farron in a headlock right now, pointing it out to him that it would be wise to not try too hard in Gorton. And how would it not be wise? Does Caroline Lucas's precious 'progressive Alliance' not include Labour and therefore embrace parties that collectively won over 80% of the vote here in 2015? Is she going to say that a split between the Lib Dem and Green vote is going to let the Tories or UKIP in? The Lib Dems would be mad not to aim for a good second in a seat where they previously were in a very strong second and often held a majority of local council seats. How could it possibly be wise for the Lib Dems to allow themselves to remain behind the Greens in third or possibly fourth place? Does Labour support electoral reform ? |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 27, 2017 14:12:44 GMT
And how would it not be wise? Does Caroline Lucas's precious 'progressive Alliance' not include Labour and therefore embrace parties that collectively won over 80% of the vote here in 2015? Is she going to say that a split between the Lib Dem and Green vote is going to let the Tories or UKIP in? The Lib Dems would be mad not to aim for a good second in a seat where they previously were in a very strong second and often held a majority of local council seats. How could it possibly be wise for the Lib Dems to allow themselves to remain behind the Greens in third or possibly fourth place? Does Labour support electoral reform ? Well. It does and it doesn't. |
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Post by sisterjude on Feb 27, 2017 14:20:30 GMT
RIP Sir Gerald. A lifetime of public service has to be acknowledged and appreciated before we look at the by-election, although I can't help thinking it would have been in everyone's interests had he stood down a few months ago. Is it something like 8 months since he voted in Westminster? I'm sure he was hoping to recover but he should have been able to retire with dignity, receive the recognition his service deserved, and allow a new representative to be put in place. Moving forward, I think the Lib Dems have to go hard on this one. The only other big remain seat that has come up so far is Richmond Park, and like that seat there is plenty of Lib Dem history. I'm sure the Greens will also want a good showing given the 2015 result, but think they will be outgunned - the Lib Dems can bring operations from Cheadle, Hazel Grove, and Withington into Gorton without too much difficulty. I believe the 2015 Green result was largely due to Lib Dem splintering and these are exactly the votes the Lib Dems need to bring back. Should be a safe Labour seat, but if the speculation about a centrally-imposed candidate who isn't popular locally is true, who knows? In a way I think this helps the Lib Dems give their mayoral campaign a focus for their ground war. From what I've observed it's been quite diffuse with only the odd bit of activity in the limited remaining strongholds you alluded to. This gives the activists something concrete to do, which seems to be sorely lacking as none of them have locals in their own patch this year. The more I think about it the more I'm convinced that it's a strategic imperative for the Lib Dems to go all in on this. They've proved they can do well in a Tory remain area, now they need to prove that they can do the same in a Labour remain area. The latest Yougov poll illustrated that the small uptick in their national polling recently has been almost entirely due to Labour remain switchers, so it's time for them to turn that hypothetical support into votes. There's also, as you say, a concentration of activists from three nearby former Lib Dem constituencies, and Gorton is just south of the city centre with easy transport links. |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 27, 2017 14:47:22 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a strong LD resurgence in this seat. Not enough to win, obviously, but a showing of 20-25% and a strong second place. More importantly, RIP Sir Gerald - a lifetime of service and mostly seemed like a decent chap.It is also highly pleasing to have Ken Clarke as FOTH. It looked as though it would elude him following the decision to retire at the next election (even though I can see him getting bored and 'doing an Alan Clark' if he's still with us). I know it's standard practice when somebody dies, but I'm beginning to think there must have been two Kaufmans - the one who has died, and the one we have all heard about in recent years. That's kinda why I qualified it with a 'mostly'. Treading a fine line, given that he's only just died, and acknowledging his flaws without coming across like a completely insensitive dick. I'd have had a harder time if it had been Dennis Skinner, mind... |
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danno
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Post by danno on Feb 27, 2017 15:17:54 GMT
Lib Dems will fight this one. Unlike Stoke where it was high noon between labour and ukip and lib Dems GT squeeze . Ment labour people unhappy with labour but would not switch to lib Dems fear of letting in ukip.
No one thinks result will be anything else other than labour win but given we got 12000 votes in 2010 and labour 19000 and in 2015 labour got 28000. Not much movement in a one elses vote so lots of people who voted lib Dem in 2010 but not 2015 especially if they opted remain just think corbyns a joke.
Tories or ukip never done anything n this seat and green likewise and have n credibility and where you are second or third or whatever in the seat does not matter as all parties are miles behind labour but very close to each other in votes in 2015.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 27, 2017 15:18:41 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected.
That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Feb 27, 2017 15:32:00 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 15:32:29 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected. That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference. I'm not sure why there is the sense that an Asian candidate is effectively entitled to it. A large part of the seat is Irish Catholic country and I'd imagine they have a big say in the local Labour Party. Whilst Rusholme, Whalley Range and Longsight are very Asian, the councillors are a mix and the seat is not as heavily Asian as it often made out. Apropos of nothing, this is the seat in which I went to school. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 27, 2017 15:37:04 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected. That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference. I'm not sure why there is the sense that an Asian candidate is effectively entitled to it. A large part of the seat is Irish Catholic country and I'd imagine they have a big say in the local Labour Party. Whilst Rusholme, Whalley Range and Longsight are very Asian, the councillors are a mix and the seat is not as heavily Asian as it often made out. Apropos of nothing, this is the seat in which I went to school. I am not suggesting any sense of entitlement but I think that as Manchester has never had a BME MP there may well be a wish to put that right. We had a young councillor from the seat on our shortlist in 2015 - I should think he will be considered. He was good - had done some homework and knew his stuff with regard to urban poverty issues which are going to be important there. |
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Post by Strontium Dog on Feb 27, 2017 15:49:06 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected. That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference. Given the current state of play in Labour, it's highly unlikely it will be another Jew. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Feb 27, 2017 15:57:51 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected. That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference. Given the current state of play in Labour, it's highly unlikely it will be another Jew. Well.....Gerald was certainly a Jew. If you mean it won't be an enthusiastic supporter of the occupation of Palestine then yes - I expect Gerald's successor to have similar views to him irrespective of religion. Which I would suggest concurs with the views of those constituents who regard the issue as important |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 27, 2017 16:05:48 GMT
I can see Labour putting forward Rosa Battle (whom I've suspected would get a seat sooner rather than later). A nearby councillor and fairly well-regarded. Depends on whether she fancies a shot at council leader in the next few years I guess. |
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Post by iainbhx on Feb 27, 2017 16:09:26 GMT
I think it's very likely that an Asian candidate will be selected. That was certainly what Sir Gerald said would be his preference. I'm not sure why there is the sense that an Asian candidate is effectively entitled to it. A large part of the seat is Irish Catholic country and I'd imagine they have a big say in the local Labour Party. Whilst Rusholme, Whalley Range and Longsight are very Asian, the councillors are a mix and the seat is not as heavily Asian as it often made out. They wouldn't wouldn't even count has heavily Asian in Birmingham. As far as I can remember, none of them are majority Asian. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 27, 2017 16:28:36 GMT
They wouldn't wouldn't even count has heavily Asian in Birmingham. As far as I can remember, none of them are majority Asian. Longsight is but only barely; others aren't even close. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 16:39:14 GMT
Anyway, Manchester Labour have some very good councillors and I'd be shocked if the next MP does not come from amongst their number.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 27, 2017 16:47:45 GMT
The CLP - which as all Labour Watchers will know is infamous - is currently suspended, incidentally.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 16:50:55 GMT
The CLP - which as all Labour Watchers will know is infamous - is currently suspended, incidentally. Still? Must be a fair while now. |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 27, 2017 16:58:38 GMT
I saw the name Lufthur Rahman mentioned on the blog post above. I presume (hope) that is entirely coincidental?
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 27, 2017 17:03:16 GMT
Does Labour support electoral reform ? In my experience the vast majority of party members do (both pro & anti Corbyn) and would vote for it. Something seems to happen however when party members become MPs that puts most of them of the idea. I personally support PR but ONLY if the system used was STV as the constituency link is very important imo. Safe Labour seats, pensions, decent pay package, but yes all well and good to say electoral reform, difficulty is to get a workable system. |
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