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Post by overthehill on Feb 26, 2017 23:46:05 GMT
Sir Gerald Kaufman has very sadly passed away
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 26, 2017 23:55:02 GMT
Sad news. He'd been an MP since 1970, Manchester Ardwick 1970-83, Manchester Gorton since 1983.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,692
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Post by mboy on Feb 27, 2017 0:06:58 GMT
RIP.
Labour hold. Nothing to see here.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2017 0:07:09 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 27, 2017 0:10:48 GMT
Very sad & depressing news. Didn't he coin the phrase 'the longest suiside suicide note in history'? Wonder what he would of have called are 2020 manifesto. 😞 FTFY - before anyone else does  and yes, he did. the mind boggles. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 27, 2017 0:20:25 GMT
Oh come on, do we really need a by election thread and electoral analysis within an hour of the announcement of the death of an MP?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426 
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Post by iain on Feb 27, 2017 0:28:24 GMT
Very sad & depressing news. Didn't he coin the phrase 'the longest suiside suicide note in history'? Wonder what he would of have called are 2020 manifesto. 😞 FTFY - before anyone else does and yes, he did. the mind boggles. You missed one |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 27, 2017 0:47:28 GMT
Breaking news: Paul Nuttall reported to be looking at houses to rent in Gorton.
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Post by Zardoz on Feb 27, 2017 0:51:36 GMT
RIP. Labour hold. Nothing to see here. I'm sorry to see the passing of Gerald Kaufman - originally from Leeds. May he rest in peace. That having being said, Lib Dems were in a good second place prior to the 2015 debacle, and the constituency voted 62.1% Remain last June - so I don't see why you are so pessimistic mboy! |
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hedgehog
Non-Aligned
Enter your message here...
Posts: 6,826
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 27, 2017 1:10:01 GMT
RIP. Labour hold. Nothing to see here. It will be interesting to see if the Lib Dems reclaim their pre 2015 2nd place position post Brexit though. Greens had a good showing here, wonder if they will slip back now Labour has moved to the left. Does seem to be distasteful to be discussing the byelection at this time, but hopefully we can mount a decent campaign here to build on our 2015 result. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Feb 27, 2017 1:14:16 GMT
Oh come on, do we really need a by election thread and electoral analysis within an hour of the announcement of the death of an MP? I can see how you would find the haste with which this discussion was started tasteless. However, I think it is defensible. For better or worse, the world seems to turn more quickly these days. Moreover, this death has hardly come as a shock and 86 is a more than decent innings. Lastly, this remains primarily a psephological forum. |
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Post by janwhitby on Feb 27, 2017 1:14:29 GMT
Breaking news: Paul Nuttall reported to be looking at houses to rent in Gorton. Will UKIP put themselves through this again in a 'Labour safe seat' but now I question if any Labour seat is truely safe. It could be time for Corbyn's shining knight George Galloway to make a come back? Or might this be the time when David Miliband or Tony Blair experience squeaky bottom time in the heart of Manchester? Or is this where The Green Party will finally make its break through & their leader who is not Caroline Lucas might feel inspired enough to do a Paul Nuttal, call in the Richmond Park favour with the LibDems and take a shot at showing us if The Green Party can get organised? |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,005
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Post by Khunanup on Feb 27, 2017 1:16:57 GMT
Oh come on, do we really need a by election thread and electoral analysis within an hour of the announcement of the death of an MP? Yes. The King is Dead etc. It's not about the deceased MP, it's about the seat. I would expect a full on assault from the Lib Dems here to set up for a few gains on the council in 2018. If my recent visit to Manchester is anything to go by it's getting a bit stagnant after the previously rapid change in the last 15 years, ripe for some change at least. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2017 1:28:11 GMT
I just had a look at the local election results in the wards for 2016 and was surprised to see the Lib Dems fell back even further in their erstwhile strongholds here - while they retained 20% in Levenshulme in 2015 they dropped to 7.5% there in 2016 and they polled even lower in the Gorton wards. Decent Green vote throughout the seat except Gorton itself. This will be of no interest to UKIP but I note Katie Fanning contested Gorton North last May and got a very creditable 22% from a standing start. She was recently elected to the NEC and would be a good tip to fly the flag for the party here but we would be looking to save our deposit and not much more. You'd think the Lib Dems should come second but not so sure..
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Feb 27, 2017 1:30:47 GMT
I just had a look at the local election results in the wards for 2016 and was surprised to see the Lib Dems fell back even further in their erstwhile strongholds here - while they retained 20% in Levenshulme in 2015 they dropped to 7.5% there in 2016 and they polled even lower in the Gorton wards. Decent Green vote throughout the seat except Gorton itself. This will be of no interest to UKIP but I note Katie Fanning contested Gorton North last May and got a very creditable 22% from a standing start. She was recently elected to the NEC and would be a good tip to fly the flag for the party here but we would be looking to save our deposit and not much more. You'd think the Lib Dems should come second but not so sure.. IIRC we went backwards in most places in Manchester last year, I assume due to the overwhelming focus on getting John Leech elected in Didsbury West. |
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Feb 27, 2017 1:39:21 GMT
Oh come on, do we really need a by election thread and electoral analysis within an hour of the announcement of the death of an MP? I know how you feel. Someone updated Ken Clarkes Wiki to show him as the new father of the house. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2017 1:40:18 GMT
I just had a look at the local election results in the wards for 2016 and was surprised to see the Lib Dems fell back even further in their erstwhile strongholds here - while they retained 20% in Levenshulme in 2015 they dropped to 7.5% there in 2016 and they polled even lower in the Gorton wards. Decent Green vote throughout the seat except Gorton itself. This will be of no interest to UKIP but I note Katie Fanning contested Gorton North last May and got a very creditable 22% from a standing start. She was recently elected to the NEC and would be a good tip to fly the flag for the party here but we would be looking to save our deposit and not much more. You'd think the Lib Dems should come second but not so sure.. IIRC we went backwards in most places in Manchester last year, I assume due to the overwhelming focus on getting John Leech elected in Didsbury West. Indeed, though in Levenshulme there appears to have been a particular issue of an Independent taking the greater part of the vote - one Mark Breeze who funnily enough appears to be the same Mark Breeze who came fourth in Stoke Central in 2015 |
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Post by markgoodair on Feb 27, 2017 6:49:54 GMT
There can't be many seats where the Greens are second place to Labour.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,905
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Post by YL on Feb 27, 2017 7:28:23 GMT
There can't be many seats where the Greens are second place to Labour. Bristol "West" Liverpool Riverside Manchester Gorton Sheffield Central |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 7:57:59 GMT
I can see Labour putting forward Rosa Battle (whom I've suspected would get a seat sooner rather than later). A nearby councillor and fairly well-regarded.
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