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Post by sisterjude on Feb 27, 2017 12:10:53 GMT
Bit of a Dilemma for all the opposition parties on how hard to fight it really. The Lib Dems could probably return to second if they tried, but if the greens go for it as well they could both end up spending an awful lot of money in a battle for a very distant second with a relatively poor vote share. I doubt UKIP want the hype and disappointment of ramping their chances in another Northern Labour seat again. That said, there are wards, particularly the two Gortons themselves that should be quite favourable for them. OTOH they will get killed in the Asian wards of Rusholme, Longsight and Whalley Range. Tories presumably just want to hold their deposit. From a Green perspective, I think its vital that we throw the kitchen sink at this seat, if we don't I think it will end our chances of becaming a credible alternative in the Northern cities, a strong showing here is vital for Natalie Bennett's chances in Sheffield Central in 2020. I agree, you probably have to go all out for it, but at the same time that raises the stakes and adds to the potential embarrassment if you come third. FWIW I think the Lib Dems will probably treat it seriously enough, give it the same treatment they gave Copeland and Stoke at any rate. They need to continue their fightback narrative and this has the added bonus of feeding into their mayoral campaign were they have a decent, if longish, shot at coming second as well. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 27, 2017 12:23:38 GMT
From a Green perspective, I think its vital that we throw the kitchen sink at this seat, if we don't I think it will end our chances of becaming a credible alternative in the Northern cities, a strong showing here is vital for Natalie Bennett's chances in Sheffield Central in 2020. I agree, you probably have to go all out for it, but at the same time that raises the stakes and adds to the potential embarrassment if you come third. FWIW I think the Lib Dems will probably treat it seriously enough, give it the same treatment they gave Copeland and Stoke at any rate. They need to continue their fightback narrative and this has the added bonus of feeding into their mayoral campaign were they have a decent, if longish, shot at coming second as well. In 2015 the Greens got 9.8%, the Lib Dems 4.2%, if we don't beat them this time, why would anyone who isn't a committed Green vote for us again in a Northern seat. Labour are going to win by a margin, so there is no excuse for any Green minded voters to put his/her x next to the Labour candidate to keep those nasty Conservatives out. This is purely a test of the strength of our party, I hope those making the decisions realise this, if we finish third, might as well close shop and just concentrate on the line south of the Humber. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2017 12:42:10 GMT
IIRC the CLP is currently suspended, so the selection process could be "interesting". Could be a perfect opportunity finally to shoe-horn a Hard Left candidate into a by-election (every candidate selected so far has been a moderate). It's a seat where doing so probably wouldn't lose many votes (and might win some back from the Greens). I wonder how much of the Green vote here in 2015 had ever actually been Labour... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2017 12:49:16 GMT
It's a seat where doing so probably wouldn't lose many votes (and might win some back from the Greens). I wonder how much of the Green vote here in 2015 had ever actually been Labour... Quite - heavy student vote here which would have acocunted for a large part of the Green vote, so most of them had probably never voted previously. Still true of course that that vote could be won over by Labour |
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Post by Antiochian on Feb 27, 2017 12:53:23 GMT
I agree, you probably have to go all out for it, but at the same time that raises the stakes and adds to the potential embarrassment if you come third. FWIW I think the Lib Dems will probably treat it seriously enough, give it the same treatment they gave Copeland and Stoke at any rate. They need to continue their fightback narrative and this has the added bonus of feeding into their mayoral campaign were they have a decent, if longish, shot at coming second as well. In 2015 the Greens got 9.8%, the Lib Dems 4.2%, if we don't beat them this time, why would anyone who isn't a committed Green vote for us again in a Northern seat. Labour are going to win by a margin, so there is no excuse for any Green minded voters to put his/her x next to the Labour candidate to keep those nasty Conservatives out. This is purely a test of the strength of our party, I hope those making the decisions realise this, if we finish third, might as well close shop and just concentrate on the line south of the Humber. Alas for the Greens, the LibDems must stand here... Your payback for Richmond Park will "be in another lifetime"... If Labour pick a hard left candidate it'll be even tougher for the Greens trying to resist a a drift of Red Greens to Labour while we should benefit from the fading memories of the Coalition and the Remainiac tendencies of this constituency. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 27, 2017 13:01:14 GMT
The succession to Sir Gerald Kaufman has been debated in Manchester Labour politics for 25 years. Haven't they had enough to talk about with 3 new MPs in the last 5 years. Interesting (or not) that 3 out of the 5 Manchester MPs will have entered the commons at by-elections. With the best of the lot, Tony Lloyd, now interim mayor. |
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Feb 27, 2017 13:06:19 GMT
In 2015 the Greens got 9.8%, the Lib Dems 4.2%, if we don't beat them this time, why would anyone who isn't a committed Green vote for us again in a Northern seat. Labour are going to win by a margin, so there is no excuse for any Green minded voters to put his/her x next to the Labour candidate to keep those nasty Conservatives out. This is purely a test of the strength of our party, I hope those making the decisions realise this, if we finish third, might as well close shop and just concentrate on the line south of the Humber. Alas for the Greens, the LibDems must stand here... Your payback for Richmond Park will "be in another lifetime"... If Labour pick a hard left candidate it'll be even tougher for the Greens trying to resist a a drift of Red Greens to Labour while we should benefit from the fading memories of the Coalition and the Remainiac tendencies of this constituency. I agree, but for the Lib Dems finishing second here with lets say 15% of the vote will mean nothing, 'so what', will be the expression on everyones lips, for us it would mean a whole lot more. If I was Caroline Lucas, I would have Tim Farron in a headlock right now, pointing it out to him that it would be wise to not try too hard in Gorton. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Feb 27, 2017 13:11:49 GMT
Not entirely sure if 'debated' is quite the right word at times... Debated, in the same sense as there was a debate with the Jacobites at Culloden. During the mid 1990s Brian Sedgemore wrote a humorous insider's guide to Parliament with a section on selection and did cover the Machiavellian way to buy a constituency via membership sticking. He noted the attempt to replace Kaufman had failed to observe such practices as: - Only sign on people who actually live in the constituency.
- Forget the dead.
- Sign the new members on in dribs and drabs. The sudden arrival of 100 new members in a constituency party with only 40 members might arouse suspicions.
- Don't make names up.
- Don't sign the cheques yourself.
- Don't do it in Gerald Kaufman's constituency. Not for nothing did Spitting Image portray him as a psychotic from Silence of the Lambs.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 27, 2017 13:13:26 GMT
Bit of a Dilemma for all the opposition parties on how hard to fight it really. The Lib Dems could probably return to second if they tried, but if the greens go for it as well they could both end up spending an awful lot of money in a battle for a very distant second with a relatively poor vote share. I doubt UKIP want the hype and disappointment of ramping their chances in another Northern Labour seat again. That said, there are wards, particularly the two Gortons themselves that should be quite favourable for them. OTOH they will get killed in the Asian wards of Rusholme, Longsight and Whalley Range. Tories presumably just want to hold their deposit. Voice from within UKIP - Labour has a massive majority in Manchester Gorton with Kaufman increasing his vote share by 17% at the last election. This big Remain-voting seat will be way down UKIP's target list but with local and mayoral elections being held in May there is likely to be a very long by-election campaign to educate voters.Good majority now but not in 2010! |
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 27, 2017 13:14:41 GMT
Alas for the Greens, the LibDems must stand here... Your payback for Richmond Park will "be in another lifetime"... If Labour pick a hard left candidate it'll be even tougher for the Greens trying to resist a a drift of Red Greens to Labour while we should benefit from the fading memories of the Coalition and the Remainiac tendencies of this constituency. I agree, but for the Lib Dems finishing second here with lets say 15% of the vote will mean nothing, 'so what', will be the expression on everyones lips, for us it would mean a whole lot more. If I was Caroline Lucas, I would have Tim Farron in a headlock right now, pointing it out to him that it would be wise to not try too hard in Gorton. Rubbish. They have been much, much closer than you will ever be. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2017 13:23:28 GMT
Alas for the Greens, the LibDems must stand here... Your payback for Richmond Park will "be in another lifetime"... If Labour pick a hard left candidate it'll be even tougher for the Greens trying to resist a a drift of Red Greens to Labour while we should benefit from the fading memories of the Coalition and the Remainiac tendencies of this constituency. I agree, but for the Lib Dems finishing second here with lets say 15% of the vote will mean nothing, 'so what', will be the expression on everyones lips, for us it would mean a whole lot more. If I was Caroline Lucas, I would have Tim Farron in a headlock right now, pointing it out to him that it would be wise to not try too hard in Gorton. And how would it not be wise? Does Caroline Lucas's precious 'progressive Alliance' not include Labour and therefore embrace parties that collectively won over 80% of the vote here in 2015? Is she going to say that a split between the Lib Dem and Green vote is going to let the Tories or UKIP in? The Lib Dems would be mad not to aim for a good second in a seat where they previously were in a very strong second and often held a majority of local council seats. How could it possibly be wise for the Lib Dems to allow themselves to remain behind the Greens in third or possibly fourth place? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 27, 2017 13:25:55 GMT
I wonder how much of the Green vote here in 2015 had ever actually been Labour... Quite - heavy student vote here which would have acocunted for a large part of the Green vote, so most of them had probably never voted previously. Still true of course that that vote could be won over by Labour What proportion of the 2015 vote will still be there in 2017 however? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 27, 2017 13:28:08 GMT
Quite - heavy student vote here which would have acocunted for a large part of the Green vote, so most of them had probably never voted previously. Still true of course that that vote could be won over by Labour What proportion of the 2015 vote will still be there in 2017 however? That's why i specifically said 'that vote' rather than 'those voters' |
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sirbenjamin
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Post by sirbenjamin on Feb 27, 2017 13:28:40 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a strong LD resurgence in this seat. Not enough to win, obviously, but a showing of 20-25% and a strong second place.
More importantly, RIP Sir Gerald - a lifetime of service and mostly seemed like a decent chap.
It is also highly pleasing to have Ken Clarke as FOTH. It looked as though it would elude him following the decision to retire at the next election (even though I can see him getting bored and 'doing an Alan Clark' if he's still with us).
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 27, 2017 13:39:01 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a strong LD resurgence in this seat. Not enough to win, obviously, but a showing of 20-25% and a strong second place. More importantly, RIP Sir Gerald - a lifetime of service and mostly seemed like a decent chap.It is also highly pleasing to have Ken Clarke as FOTH. It looked as though it would elude him following the decision to retire at the next election (even though I can see him getting bored and 'doing an Alan Clark' if he's still with us). I know it's standard practice when somebody dies, but I'm beginning to think there must have been two Kaufmans - the one who has died, and the one we have all heard about in recent years. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Feb 27, 2017 13:50:32 GMT
RIP Sir Gerald. A lifetime of public service has to be acknowledged and appreciated before we look at the by-election, although I can't help thinking it would have been in everyone's interests had he stood down a few months ago. Is it something like 8 months since he voted in Westminster? I'm sure he was hoping to recover but he should have been able to retire with dignity, receive the recognition his service deserved, and allow a new representative to be put in place.
Moving forward, I think the Lib Dems have to go hard on this one. The only other big remain seat that has come up so far is Richmond Park, and like that seat there is plenty of Lib Dem history. I'm sure the Greens will also want a good showing given the 2015 result, but think they will be outgunned - the Lib Dems can bring operations from Cheadle, Hazel Grove, and Withington into Gorton without too much difficulty. I believe the 2015 Green result was largely due to Lib Dem splintering and these are exactly the votes the Lib Dems need to bring back. Should be a safe Labour seat, but if the speculation about a centrally-imposed candidate who isn't popular locally is true, who knows?
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Post by janwhitby on Feb 27, 2017 13:51:38 GMT
It's a seat where doing so probably wouldn't lose many votes (and might win some back from the Greens). I wonder how much of the Green vote here in 2015 had ever actually been Labour... Looking at Greens only seat in Brighton Pavillion that was taken from Labour, I'd consider it unlikely that Green voters are just ex Labour supporters. Which makes it more questionable why Corbyn is creating policies that resemble the Greens. This should be the seat where Corbyn emulates Trump around bringing back industry. |
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Post by janwhitby on Feb 27, 2017 13:56:12 GMT
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a strong LD resurgence in this seat. Not enough to win, obviously, but a showing of 20-25% and a strong second place. More importantly, RIP Sir Gerald - a lifetime of service and mostly seemed like a decent chap.It is also highly pleasing to have Ken Clarke as FOTH. It looked as though it would elude him following the decision to retire at the next election (even though I can see him getting bored and 'doing an Alan Clark' if he's still with us). I know it's standard practice when somebody dies, but I'm beginning to think there must have been two Kaufmans - the one who has died, and the one we have all heard about in recent years. Are you saying this is another politician who might receive unfsvourable coverage now he is dead and the newspapers can become emboldened? |
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Post by marksenior on Feb 27, 2017 14:03:41 GMT
The Lib Dems will fight this hard and have plenty of campaigners . Apart from the Mayoral election there is nothing else going on local election wise .
If as I think likely much of the 2015 Green vote came from students , then most of those students will no longer be there having graduated and moved on . They will of course have been replaced by new students .
A council by election in one of the Gorton wards was one of my first experiences in an election campaign in 1967 IIRC . Manchester University Liberals ran a candidate the first Liberal to fight a seat there for 20 years . Memory is dim but I think we got a respectable result .
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2017 14:08:51 GMT
Voice from within UKIP - Labour has a massive majority in Manchester Gorton with Kaufman increasing his vote share by 17% at the last election. This big Remain-voting seat will be way down UKIP's target list but with local and mayoral elections being held in May there is likely to be a very long by-election campaign to educate voters.Good majority now but not in 2010! Between 1997 and 2010 the Lib Dems leap-frogged the Conservatives into a strong second place, only to collapse and lose their deposit in 2015. I would expect them to be the main challenger in the coming by-election, but how well they do will depend on who the Labour candidate is. |
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