Prediction Competition - March 2017

[middleenglander]

Looks like 18 by-elections during March:

* 4 on 2nd March
* 7 on 9th
* 4 on 16th
* 3 on 23rd
* 0 on 30th - none identified so far

8 of the contests are for District Councils
- 2 with annual elections with the last election in 2016 and 6 where the previous all out elections were in 2015
  2 of the contests are for single member wards
7 are in Unitary Authorities
- 2 with annual elections including 1 with a by-election since last May and 5 with all out elections in 2015 although 1 has had a subsequent by-election
  2 of the contests are for single member wards
2 are for Metropolitan Boroughs where the previous election was in May last year
1 in a London Borough with previous election in 2014

Conservatives are defending 10 seats, 2 arising from the death of the previous councillor and 8 a resignation
Labour is defending 5 seats, 4 following a death and 1 a resignation
Liberal Democrats, UKIP and Independents each defend 1 seat following a death

With all nominations known:
Conservatives are contesting 18 seats, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour and UKIP each 15, Green 8 and there are 5 Independents contesting 4 seats and 1 each Its Our County and No Description
- a total of 79 candidates for the 18 seats.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of election.

[lancastrian]

Christchurch: Con 45 UKIP 25 Lab 15 Ind 10 Green 5
Redcar,Hutton: LD 46 Con 35 Lab 12 UKIP 7
Redcar,Newcomen: LD 51 Lab 20 UKIP 9 Ind(Stones) 8 Ind(Hannon) 7 Con 5
Salford: Lab 40 Con 35 LD 8 Ind 7 UKIP 7 Green 3

[yellowperil]

New entrant!Last month I played this offline (and only joined the forum mid-Feb) and was doing quite well by being rather more LD minded than those playing officially -you can guess the ones on which I came badly unstuck). So if I now stick my neck out in public this is where I will really come unstuck- I predict,so at least one prediction will be right.

Christchurch Mudeford:Con 60,Lab 14,Ind 12,UKIP 10, Green 4
Redcar Hutton: LD 40, Con 36,Lab 14, UKIP 10
Redcar Newcomen: LD 44, Lab 24, Con 13, UKIP 10, Inds 5(Stones) 4(Hannon)
Salford Kersal: Lab 32, Con 30, LD 21, UKIP 9, Ind 6, Green 2

[Robert Waller]

Welcome!

[greenhert]

Christchurch DC, Mudeford & Friars Cliffe: Conservative 54, Labour 16, UKIP 13, Independent 11, Green 6.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Hutton: Liberal Democrats 39, Conservative 37, Labour 15, UKIP 9.
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Newcomen: Liberal Democrats 48, Labour 22, Conservative 12, UKIP 9, Independent (Stones) 6, Independent (Hannon) 3.
Salford MBC, Kersal: Labour 45, Conservative 30, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 8, Green 4, Independent (Wineberg) 3.

[marksenior]

Welcome to the contest yellowperil

Here are my entries

Christchurch Con 53 Ind 16 UKIP 14 Lab 11 Green 6
Redcar Hutton LD 38 Con 37 Lab 17 UKIP 8
Redcar Newcomen LD 44 Lab 20 Ind Stone 14 Con 11 UKIP 7 Ind Hannon 4
Salford Lab 47 Con 27 LD 12 UKIP 8 Green 4 Ind 2

[Robert Waller]

Christchurch: Con 49 UKIP 18 Lab 13 Ind 16 Green 4
Redcar,Hutton: LD 37 Con 39 Lab 18 UKIP 6
Redcar,Newcomen: LD 44 Lab 26 UKIP 8 Ind(Stones) 4 Ind(Hannon) 8 Con 10
Salford: Lab 38 Con 28 LD 7 Ind 17 UKIP 7 Green 3

[Ruggerman]

My first predictions:

Christchurch: Con: 50, UKIP: 20, Lab: 15, Ind: 10, Green: 5
Hutton: LD: 35, Con: 32, Lab: 28, UKIP: 5
Newcomen: LD: 38, Lab: 28, UKIP: 21, Con: 6, Ind (Stones): 5, Ind (Hannon): 2
Kersal: Lab: 40, Con: 25, UKIP: 15, LD: 9, Ind: 6, Green: 5

[carlton43]

Christchurch Con 51 Lab 17 UKIP 13 Ind 12 Green 7
Hutton Con 38 LD 36 Lab 19 UKIP 7
Newcomen LD 43 Lab 23 Con 16 Ind (S) 9 UKIP 8 Ind (H) 1
Salford Lab 36 Con 31 LD 13 UKIP 10 Ind 6 Green 4

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CHRISTCHURCH Mudeford and Friars Cliffe: C 50, UKIP 24, Lab 18, Ind 6, GP 2
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Hutton: C 51, L Dem 31, Lab 11, UKIP 7
REDCAR AND CLEVELAND Newcomen: L Dem 54, Lab 16, UKIP 14, Ind Stones 7, C 6, Ind Hannon 3
SALFORD Kersal: Lab 40, C 34, Ind 10, UKIP 9, GP 4, L Dem 3

[brianj]

Christchurch, Mudeford and Friars Cliffe: Con 46, LibDem 26, UKIP 15, Lab 10, Green 3.
Redcar and Cleveland, Hutton: LibDem 36, Con 32, Lab 20, UKIP 12.
Redcar and Cleveland, Newcomen: LibDem 42, Lab 28, Stones 10, Con 9, UKIP 7, Hannon 4.
Salford, Kersal: Lab 37, Con 32, LibDem 16, UKIP 8, Ind 4, Green 3.

[hempie]

Christchurch, Mudeford & Friars Cliffe: Con 51, Lab 17, UKIP 14, Ind 10, Green 8
Redcar & Cleveland, Hutton: LD 37, Con 35, Lab 17, UKIP 11
Redcar & Cleveland, Newcomen: LD 40, Lab 26, Con 15, UKIP 10, Ind(Stones) 5, Ind(Hannon) 4
Salford, Kersal: Lab 38, Con 28, LD 18 UKIP 8, Green 6, Ind(Wineberg) 2

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 1, 2017 23:55:18 GMT petewhitehead said:

Salford MB - Kersal

Lab   42.4%
Con  38.5%
UKIP   7.7%
LD      5.4%
Grn    3.4%
Ind     2.6%


Redcar & Cleveland UA - Hutton

Con  41.2%
LD    34.4%
Lab  18.3%
UKIP  6.2%


Redcar & Cleveland UA - Newcomen

LD      45.6%
Lab    29.2%
UKIP    8.3%
Ind S   6.7%
Con     6.5%
Ind H  3.7%


Christchurch BC - Mudeford & Friars Cliff

Con   47.7%
Ind    19.4%
UKIP 16.5%
Lab   11.1%
Grn     5.3%

[middleenglander]

11 entries this week with Ruggerman & Yellow Peril making a first appearance. brianj gets 26 additional faults for a non-existent Liberal Democrat in Mudeford & Friars Cliff whilst Pete Whitehead gets 0.1 additional fault for adding to 100.1 in Hutton.

Christchurch, Mudeford & Friar Cliff: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 20% (Lancastrian over UKIP) to 46% (Yellow Peril over Labour)
Redcar & Cleveland, Hutton: 7 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, Carlton43, David Boothroyd, Pete Whitehead & Robert Waller Conservative hold - 8 have majority less than 5% whichever way
Redcar & Cleveland: Newcomen: 100% Liberal Democrat hold with majority over Labour ranging from 10% (Ruggerman) to 38% (David Boothroyd)
Salford, Kersal: 100% Labour hold with majority over Conservative ranging from 2% (Yellow Peril) to 20% (Mark Senior)

[linders]

Sorry for ruining all your scores, folks...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Let you into a secret - my first thoughts on Kersal had the Labour and Conservative scores the opposite way round to how they finally appeared. Then thought it didn't look right.

[Clarko]

Mar 3, 2017 9:11:14 GMT linders said:

Sorry for ruining all your scores, folks...

I'm not!

[middleenglander]

For week 1:

Authority	Christchurch	Redcar & Cleveland	Redcar & Cleveland	Salford	Week 1	Week 1
Ward	Mudeford & Friars Cliff	Hutton	Newcomen	Kersall	faults	position
brianj	49.8+26	50.8+10	26.1	48.8+10	221.6	11th
Carlton43	45.4	42.0	36.4	44.9+10	178.7	4th
David Boothroyd	64.1	18.5	31.2	30.9+10	154.6	3rd
Greenhert	47.4	40.8+10	29.2	54.8+10	192.2	7th
hempie	49.4	44.8+10	26.4	60.8+10	201.4	9th
Lancastrian	53.8	48.5+10	28.3	38.8+10	189.4	6th
Mark Senior	37.4	42.0+10	36.4	62.8+10	198.6	8th
Pete Whitehead	30.8	37.3+0.1	18.9	39.2+10	136.3	1st
Robert Waller	40.1	42.0	19.5	32.8+10	144.5	2nd
Ruggerman	50.1	58.0+10	20.1	56.9+10	205.1	10th
Yellow Peril	48.1	42.8+10	22.4	47.6+10	180.9	5th
Total faults	516.4+26	467.5+0.1+70	294.9	518.3+110	2003.4

Objection please by noon Sunday.

There are 7 by-elections next week.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[lancastrian]

Broxbourne: Lab 44 Con 36 UKIP 12 LD 8
Derby: Lab 39 Con 33 UKIP 16 LD 12
East Herts: Con 40 LD 30 Lab 16 Green 8 UKIP 6
Harrow: Lab 55 Con 26 LD 15 UKIP 4
Rutland: Con 52 LD 38 UKIP 10
Stratford: Con 45 LD 40 Green 8 UKIP 7
West Oxfordshire: LD 45 Con 37 Lab 7 Green 6 UKIP 5

[brianj]

Broxbourne, Waltham Cross: Con 40, Lab 38, LibDem 12, UKIP 10.
Derby, Derwent: Con 36, Lab 32, LibDem 17, UKIP 15.
East Herts, Hertford Castle: Con 44, Lab 26, LibDem 17, UKIP 10, Green 3.
Harrow, Roxbourne: Lab 50, LibDem 26, Con 18, UKIP 4.
Rutland, Exton: Con 48, LibDem 40, UKIP 12.
Stratford-on-Avon, Red Horse: Con 56, LibDem 28, UKIP 16.
West Oxford, Hailey: Con 44, LibDem 29, Lab 14, UKIP 8, Green 5.