Prediction Competition - March 2017

[carlton43]

Blackpool Con 40 Lab 30 UKIP 15.5 LD 14.5
Breckland Con 35 Ind 33 UKIP 15.5 LD 13.5 Lab 3
Heaton Lab 40 Green 30 LD 15 UKIP 10 Con 5
Walton Con 42 Lab 32 LD 26

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLACKPOOL Warbreck: C 43, Lab 27, L Dem 19, UKIP 11
BRECKLAND Saham Toney: C 46, L Dem 22, UKIP 18, Lab 8, Ind 6
NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE South Heaton: Lab 50, GP 26, L Dem 11, C 8, UKIP 5
SOUTH RIBBLE Walton-le-Dale East: C 51, Lab 35, L Dem 14

[hempie]

Blackpool, Warbreck: Con 40, Lab 34, UKIP 14, LD 12
Breckland, Saham Torey: Con 34, Ind 30, LD 18, UKIP 10, Lab 8
Newcastle upon Tyne, South Heaton: Lab 45, Green 27, LD 20, Con 4, UKIP 4
South Ribble, Walton le Dale East: Con 44, Lab 37, LD 19

[Pete Whitehead]

Newcastle Upon Tyne MB - South Heaton

Lab  46.6%
Grn 23.1%
LD   19.1%
Con  6.5%
UKIP 4.7%


Blackpool UA - Warbreck

Con   46.5%
Lab   29.1%
UKIP 13.1%
LD     11.3%

Breckland DC - Saham Toney

Con 42.1%
UKIP 15.7%
Ind 15.0%
Lab 13.7%
LD 13.5%

South Ribble

Con 50.1%
Lab  41.3%
LD     8.6%

[brianj]

Blackpool, Warbreck:  Con 36, Lab 32, LibDem 20, UKIP 12.
Breckland, Saham Toney:  Con 40, Ind 25, UKIP 15, LibDem 12, Lab 8.
Newcastle, South Heaton:  LibDem 34, Lab 31, Green 20, Con 10, UKIP 5.
South Ribble, Walton-le-Dale:  Con 44, LibDem 33, Lab 23.

[marksenior]

Blackpool Con 41 Lab 31 LD 14 UKIP 14
Breckland Con 39 Ind 21 UKIP 19 Lab 13 LD 8
Newcastle Lab 49 Green 20 LD 18 Con 8 UKIP 5
S Ribble Con 46 Lab 38 LD 16

[yellowperil]

: I noticed too late my little Freudian finger slip: Saham Torey instead of Toney. Interestingly 3 more of you followed me into that same error. We wait to see if it wasn't Torey at all - in which case Robert may be the one to crow?

[Robert Waller]

Well, I'll be right one way or the other, I feel ...
... my plump for the Independent was based on a careful scrutiny of the reason for the vacancy plus a scan of the ward boundaries and candidates' addresses - Andrew's preview came too late for me too, by the way.
Incidentally, the ward map in the first post on the byelections thread was incorrect. The Independent does live in the ward, some of the others miles away.
However it remains to be seen if all this is over-thinking on my part.

[Robert Waller]

I believe the Returning Officer is away for a little while.
I roughly make it that Pete is the convincing winner this week and takes the lead for the month from David.
The other positions all look unaltered except for Greenhert and Mark moving up to 5th and 6th and Lancastrian dropping to 7th.
However, all this remains subject to more authoritative confirmation.

[Pete Whitehead]

It appears that pulling random numbers out of my arse is at least as effective a system as my usual one

[carlton43]

Mar 17, 2017 16:10:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It appears that pulling random numbers out of my arse is at least as effective a system as my usual one

Less Senator and more Senna Pod?

[yellowperil]

Mar 17, 2017 16:16:17 GMT carlton43 said:

Mar 17, 2017 16:10:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It appears that pulling random numbers out of my arse is at least as effective a system as my usual one

Probably the source of your best ideas, Pete

[middleenglander]

Week 3:

Authority	Weeks 1 & 2	Blackpool	Breckland	Newcastle      upon Tyne	South Ribble	Week 3	Week 3	Month to date	Month to date
Ward	faults	Warbreck	Saham Toney	South Heaton	Walton-le-Dale East	faults	position	faults	position
brianj	408.5	44.1	27.1	46.5+10	36.8	164.6	11th	573.1	11th
Carlton43	395.7	40.1	44.1	15.4	22.8	122.5	10th	518.1	10th
David Boothroyd	275.7	40.1	26.8	12.6	3.2	82.8	3rd	358.5	2nd
Greenhert	358.6	34.1	16.8	14.1	16.8	81.8	2nd	440.4	5th
Hempie	326.2	32.1	35.9	8.3	10.8	87.1	4th	413.3	4th
Lancastrian	347.6	29.6	39.9	26.5	10.8	106.9	9th	454.4	7th
Mark Senior	360.1	36.1	32.4	14.9	6.8	90.2	6th	450.3	6th
Pete Whitehead	281.7	28.9	15.2	9.7	12.0	65.9	1st	347.5	1st
Robert Waller	282.7	29.6	37.9+10	8.6	8.8	95.0	7th	377.7	3rd
Ruggerman	395.5	30.1	19.1	27.8	12.8	89.8	5th	485.3	9th
Yellow Peril	368.3	40.1	20.7	19.4	24.8	105.1	8th	473.4	8th
Total faults	3,800.4	384.9	315.9+10	203.8+10	166.4	1,091.6		4.892.0

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 3 by-elections next week, the final ones in March.  Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.

[lancastrian]

Blackburn: Lab 60 UKIP 20 Con 20
Herefordshire: Green 30 Con 23 IOCH 21 LD 16 No Description 10
West Somerset: Con 47 LD 27 Green 19 Lab 7

[yellowperil]

Blackburn & Darwen,Higher Croft: Lab 62, Con 22, UKIP 16
Herefordshire, Leominster S: Con 31, IOC(H) 22, NoD 16, Green 16, LD 15
West Somerset, Dunster & Timberscombe: Con 38,LD 36, Green 20. Lab 6

[greenhert]

Blackburn & Darwen UA, Higher Croft: Labour 61, Conservative 25, UKIP 14.
Herefordshire UA, Leominster South: Green 30, Conservative 25, It's Our County (Herefordshire) 20, Mark Latimer (no description) 13, Liberal Democrats 12.
West Somerset DC, Dunster & Timberscombe: Conservative 42, Liberal Democrats 35, Green 15, Labour 8.

[Robert Waller]

Blackburn & Darwen UA, Higher Croft: Labour 60, Conservative 20, UKIP 20.
Herefordshire UA, Leominster South: Green 24.5, Conservative 25.5, It's Our County (Herefordshire) 15, Mark Latimer (no description) 24, Liberal Democrats 11.
West Somerset DC, Dunster & Timberscombe: Conservative 40, Liberal Democrats 42, Green 13, Labour 5.

[carlton43]

Blackburn Lab 54 Con 26 UKIP 20
Hereford NoDesc. 30 IOCH 20 Green 19 Con 18 LD 13
Dunster Con 48 Green 23 LD 21 Lab 8

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLACKBURN WITH DARWEN Higher Croft: Lab 59, C 21, UKIP 20
HEREFORDSHIRE Leominster South: Ind 33, C 31, GP 18, L Dem 10, IOC(H) 8
WEST SOMERSET Dunster and Timberscombe: L Dem 43, C 38, GP 14, Lab 5

[marksenior]

Blackburn Lab 57 Con 22 UKIP 21
Herefordshire IOC 25 Ind 22 Green 21 Con 20 LDem 12
West Somerset LDem 40 Con 37 Green 16 Lab 7