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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Feb 23, 2017 21:27:33 GMT
Much sincere kudos to the Labour Party. Both these seats have been Labour since 1935. Their expectation management has been so brilliant that holding on only to one of them by a few hundred votes will be seen as great for them. (Note, great for the party as a whole, not just great for Corbyn).
I'm stunned some variant of "Outside special cases, the Government hasn't picked up a by election in 57 years" has not been deployed.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Feb 23, 2017 21:35:21 GMT
I feel confident in predicting that there will either be a speech declaring that this is the public fighting back against cuts to our NHS and not giving the government a free hand on Brexit or a speech declaring that the public has the utmost confidence in the government over the NHS and Brexit. What are the odds on one of the fringe candidates eating a pie while the declaration is read out? I'll give you 100/30 |
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tcpb
Conservative
Libertarian
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Post by tcpb on Feb 23, 2017 21:35:54 GMT
Much sincere kudos to the Labour Party. Both these seats have been Labour since 1935. Their expectation management has been so brilliant that holding on only to one of them by a few hundred votes will be seen as great for them. (Note, great for the party as a whole, not just great for Corbyn). I'm stunned some variant of "Outside special cases, the Government hasn't picked up a by election in 57 years" has not been deployed. Very true. The results of this will indicate that Labour are heading for a 2020 defeat by somewhere between 100 and 300 seats to the Conservatives. |
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right
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 21:36:41 GMT
Much sincere kudos to the Labour Party. Both these seats have been Labour since 1935. Their expectation management has been so brilliant that holding on only to one of them by a few hundred votes will be seen as great for them. (Note, great for the party as a whole, not just great for Corbyn). I'm stunned some variant of "Outside special cases, the Government hasn't picked up a by election in 57 years" has not been deployed. One loss will be acceptable at most, but yes both won - even by narrow margins - will be seen as great. Excellent expectations management. If I were Labour I wouldn't be as forgiving of the leadership saying "Result, the Parliamentary Party is still in triple figures" |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 23, 2017 21:44:21 GMT
What are the odds on one of the fringe candidates eating a pie while the declaration is read out? I'll give you 100/30 pies or pounds? |
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Feb 23, 2017 22:28:54 GMT
Hard to believe it but I found odds online of 5/2 at the weekend on Labour to hold Copeland. To hold a seat that has been theirs since 1935. I don't know if it was 5 pounds to 2 pounds or 5 pies to 2 pies.
When PayPal becomes PiePal I guess we'll have a currency that's both convertible ("One lamb and leek for one steak and kidney") and bettible.
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 23, 2017 22:30:46 GMT
Hard to believe it but I found odds online of 5/2 at the weekend on Labour to hold Copeland. To hold a seat that has been theirs since 1935. I don't know if it was 5 pounds to 2 pounds or 5 pies to 2 pies. When PayPal becomes PiePal I guess we'll have a currency that's both convertible ("One lamb and leek for one steak and kidney") and bettible. Would you work out the conversions from a pie chart? |
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 23, 2017 22:51:11 GMT
David Dimbleby just said on Question Time that according to 'his information' Labour have held Stoke.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Feb 23, 2017 22:58:04 GMT
Douglas Carswell also suggests that Labour have won Stoke Central. I suppose it could be a bit of expectation management although I'm sceptical. Just before stating that it's not in UKIP's top 50 target seats (it's 12th) |
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Foggy
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Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2017 23:03:59 GMT
Nearly five hours until polls close and there's already 43 people viewing this subforum. This is going to be fun. I'm quite excited. I've not been this interested in a by-election in ages, so for two intriguing ones to happen simultaneously...marvellous. Agreed that it's exciting and marvellous – but it's also worth pointing out that the timing is somewhat contrived. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 23:04:45 GMT
So now Labour saying maybe and Tories saying no. The sounds of Tories rowing back? |
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Post by politicalmatrix on Feb 23, 2017 23:07:31 GMT
I'm not sure why but I just can't stand Carswell.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2017 23:08:21 GMT
Indeed. I don't think he particularly wants his own party's leader to be its only other MP either. What a thoroughly odd situation. |
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Post by politicalmatrix on Feb 23, 2017 23:09:55 GMT
Indeed. I don't think he particularly wants his own party's leader to be its only other MP either. What a thoroughly odd situation. Blaming the 2015 election campaign for UKIP's current predicament was thoroughly pathetic as well. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 23:12:04 GMT
Indeed. I don't think he particularly wants his own party's leader to be its only other MP either. What a thoroughly odd situation. His Facebook was full of pictures from the campaign. |
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Post by andrewteale on Feb 23, 2017 23:13:06 GMT
I feel confident in predicting that there will either be a speech declaring that this is the public fighting back against cuts to our NHS and not giving the government a free hand on Brexit or a speech declaring that the public has the utmost confidence in the government over the NHS and Brexit. What are the odds on one of the fringe candidates eating a pie while the declaration is read out? We're not in Wigan tonight. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 23:16:15 GMT
90 minutes of counting votes won't give most people much real clue about the result
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2017 23:17:46 GMT
Indeed. I don't think he particularly wants his own party's leader to be its only other MP either. What a thoroughly odd situation. His Facebook was full of pictures from the campaign. Yes, I'm sure his social media presence – like everyone else's – reflects his true thoughts and feelings. |
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 23:22:37 GMT
90 minutes of counting votes won't give most people much real clue about the result Actually it should. Knowing the turnout and sampling the ballot boxes (with a realistic view of where that polling district should lie if the parties are on a knife edge) will give the campaigns a very good idea of where things are going. It all depends on whether they are telling the media the truth. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 23, 2017 23:24:23 GMT
If you know how to sample properly then it's certainly possible to work out a result within 90 minutes provided a reasonable spread of ballot boxes have arrived, especially if the result is not too close. But I'm not sure the BBC has extensive experience of how to sample ballot boxes.
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