iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,436 
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Post by iain on Feb 24, 2017 3:01:27 GMT
It's quite irritating that no-one has picked up on UKIP repeating that Stoke Central is their #72 target. I presume this is based on the Brexit constituency guesstimates, but it is considerably higher (#12) under the usual meaning of target list. It was #72 target in 2015... Pretty pathetic no-one's picked up on that then. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Feb 24, 2017 3:46:45 GMT
The declaration (0:19 onwards):
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 3:46:47 GMT
It was #72 target in 2015... Pretty pathetic no-one's picked up on that then. It is neither pathetic nor of any consequence to anything at all. Their list and their rankings are up to them. They lost and hardly made any progress at all with us still doggedly in their slip-stream as at 2015 and utterly exposing the false claim that it was a two horse race. It was as expected a one horse race with two nags fighting over second place. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Feb 24, 2017 4:00:30 GMT
A bit concerning that a candidate who is far far more racist than the BNP got so many votes. I hope that those 137 voters were genuinely ignorant of how extremely and explicitly racist she is. Serious point which might sound facetious, but I wonder if sharing a name with the Secretary of a pretty high profile campaigning Residents' Association in the Constituency confused a few people? |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 24, 2017 8:40:49 GMT
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,730
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Post by mboy on Feb 24, 2017 9:57:43 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 24, 2017 10:11:52 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. i'm not sure this is true as 1. they don't really have any good candidates any more 2. the tide seems to be going out on UKIP wholesale since the Brexit vote 3. I'm not sure 17 by election defeats on the same day would persuade Corbyn to step down. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,844
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Post by Crimson King on Feb 24, 2017 10:16:32 GMT
I heard a couple of the pundits propounding the idea that since Brexit UKIP had lost their raison d'etre. If that becomes the dominant media theme and instead of constantly ramping them, the commentators start dismissing them as an irrelevance they will be in great difficulty
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 10:18:04 GMT
UKIP are dead in the water.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Feb 24, 2017 10:33:17 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. I think with the benefit of hindsight this is correct - either the 2015 candidate Mick Harold or one of the local MEPs like Bill Etheridge would have done better. Given what a fiasco of a campaign it was, keeping second place and increasing vote share was actually better than I expected by the end but of course far worse than seemed possible when the seat became available. The ineptitude of the campaign team would still have been a factor of course whoever the candidate was, but at least if it had been Mick Harold then they wouldn't have felt the need to engage in pathetic stunts over the address on the nomination paper which dominated the narrative for much of the campaign (and of course we wouldn't have had all the Hillsborough nonsense and the 'fake news'* about the resignation of a couple of branch officials in Merseyside) * fake in the sense not that it didn't happen, but that it was especially newsworthy to the extent that it constituted one of the lead stories on several TV news bulletins |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,784
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Post by right on Feb 24, 2017 10:35:58 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. Nuttall at one time was seen as a good candidate, with a decent backstory of an intelligent bloke coming up from working class roots. His biggest weakness was widely seen to being parachuted in. And the Labour candidate was flawed. It may sound silly after the campaign, but if not Nuttall then who? Does anyone know who was planting the incredibly effective demolitions on Nuttall. I assumed that it was the Labour machine, but could the Tories have done this to destabilise UKIP? |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,730
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Post by mboy on Feb 24, 2017 10:48:21 GMT
No, his biggest weakness was that he was exposed as a serial liar.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,931
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 24, 2017 10:52:26 GMT
No, his biggest weakness was that he was exposed as a serial liar. Worse, an actual fantasist. There is a good chance that the.......at times interesting......views expressed by our candidate on social media held back the Labour vote, but it was still a tad irritating to see so many lump it together with Nuttall's behaviour as if the two things were one and the same. |
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Feb 24, 2017 11:04:26 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. Obviously we will never know but my guess is that with a good local candidate UKIP would have come clear second and probably held the Labour majority to about 1,000. I say this because I suspect that the vast majority of voters who went for Labour would have done so under any circumstances and because there is only so much that UKIP can squeeze the Tory vote. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 12:11:02 GMT
I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. Nuttall at one time was seen as a good candidate, with a decent backstory of an intelligent bloke coming up from working class roots. His biggest weakness was widely seen to being parachuted in. And the Labour candidate was flawed. It may sound silly after the campaign, but if not Nuttall then who? He was certainly presented that way, but if you're going to carpetbag like that you need to do a bit of work on your profile first. Lucas got away with it in Brighton because she was already well identified with the party and was a good fit with the seat - neither really applied to Nuttall here. Of course he might well have just got overexcited by all the breathless national comment pieces telling us he was on course to wipe out Labour in the north/midlands purely by virtue of having a northern accent and basic media training. |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 24, 2017 13:35:23 GMT
I'd say ok result for labour in the context of them inflicting an unnecessary election on the people of Stoke, rubbish for UKIP (but not as bad as they deserve) pretty good for the Conservatives and as good as we could expect (a year or two ago we would have been squeezed to buggery) I think this results suggests that with a good candidate UKIP could have won this. If they had it would have changed the course of British politics, as Corbyn would be on his way out right now. No they wouldn't. The structure is all wrong. Only a massive surge by your party at expense of Labour could have done it. But such a surge might have eaten into UKIP as well and let us win by a whisker. Opposition equally divided and so a near certain hold. Nuttall read it wrong at the outset and then goofed up and Labour pistol-whipped the fuck out of him. |
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Post by johnloony on Feb 24, 2017 13:37:45 GMT
UKIP are dead in the water. It was more of a rejection of Nuttall than UKIP. A better candidate would have been able to squeeze the Conservative vote more and reduce the Labour majority. UKIP still potentially has a job to do in keeping up the pressure and making sure Brexit happens properly. UKIP won't be dead until its purpose has been fulfilled in 2019. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 24, 2017 15:13:59 GMT
Could media types now stop pretending that everyone in Stoke is a knuckle-dragging racist goon with swastika tatoos? Thanks.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 24, 2017 15:16:36 GMT
Obviously we will never know but my guess is that with a good local candidate UKIP... Tbh that's a bit like wondering what the result would have looked like were Jeremy Corbyn a beloved and popular Leader... |
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 24, 2017 17:02:46 GMT
Nuttall at one time was seen as a good candidate, with a decent backstory of an intelligent bloke coming up from working class roots. His biggest weakness was widely seen to being parachuted in. And the Labour candidate was flawed. It may sound silly after the campaign, but if not Nuttall then who? He was certainly presented that way, but if you're going to carpetbag like that you need to do a bit of work on your profile first. Lucas got away with it in Brighton because she was already well identified with the party and was a good fit with the seat - neither really applied to Nuttall here. Worth noting that Lucas was the sitting MEP for the region, and had been for over a decade. So it wasn't anywhere near as much of a carpetbag as Nuttall. |
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