nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
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Post by nelson on Sept 24, 2020 23:16:45 GMT
If such a notoriously neoconservative outfit as Fox is showing Biden ahead in its polls in key states, it is no wonder Trump is making all these ridiculous statements about the election. Fox polls aren't politically biased or manipulated. It's quite a good pollster (at least by US standards). Also: Neoconservative has a specific meaning in the US, so you can't really call Fox News a "neoconservative outfit".
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 23:17:06 GMT
If such a notoriously neoconservative outfit as Fox is showing Biden ahead in its polls in key states, it is no wonder Trump is making all these ridiculous statements about the election. To be fair, Fox’s polling outfit has been amongst the best in the business. I suspect the Nevada number’s too high, but it’s almost impossible to poll the State because of the reluctance of the Las Vegas Hispanics to respond for fear it’ll have repercussions on their immigration status. As for Ohio, whilst it’s probably still to the right of Pennsylvania, if that and Iowa are as close as the polling suggests then Ohio isn’t too far different.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 25, 2020 11:51:52 GMT
"Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/The danger of this is seriously overstated. It is true that the constitution grants state legislatures the power to decide how presidential electors are selected but in all 50 states the legislature have legislated to to do so by popular vote. Thus a state legislature cannot simply select their own slate of electors, they would have to change the law to allow them to do so. In Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin any such attempt to change the law would obviously be vetoed by the Democratic Governor.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2020 12:12:49 GMT
"Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/The danger of this is seriously overstated. It is true that the constitution grants state legislatures the power to decide how presidential electors are selected but in all 50 states the legislature have legislated to to do so by popular vote. Thus a state legislature cannot simply select their own slate of electors, they would have to change the law to allow them to do so. In Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin any such attempt to change the law would obviously be vetoed by the Democratic Governor. A few years ago the idea would have been pure fantasy, but in the days of the Trump ...... I hope you are right that this danger is overstated, but the fact we are even discussing it !!
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 25, 2020 14:02:40 GMT
"Trump campaign is discussing contingency plans to bypass election results and appoint loyal electors in battleground states where Republicans hold the legislative majority. With a justification based on claims of rampant fraud, Trump would ask state legislators to set aside the popular vote and exercise their power to choose a slate of electors directly." www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/The danger of this is seriously overstated. It is true that the constitution grants state legislatures the power to decide how presidential electors are selected but in all 50 states the legislature have legislated to to do so by popular vote. Thus a state legislature cannot simply select their own slate of electors, they would have to change the law to allow them to do so. In Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin any such attempt to change the law would obviously be vetoed by the Democratic Governor. The Republican majority in NC is veto-proof.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,282
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 25, 2020 15:03:16 GMT
The danger of this is seriously overstated. It is true that the constitution grants state legislatures the power to decide how presidential electors are selected but in all 50 states the legislature have legislated to to do so by popular vote. Thus a state legislature cannot simply select their own slate of electors, they would have to change the law to allow them to do so. In Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin any such attempt to change the law would obviously be vetoed by the Democratic Governor. The Republican majority in NC is veto-proof. Yes, they quite scandalously changed the rules when they lost the governorship - sometimes, given partisan gerrymandering of districts, voter suppression, etc., one doubts the USA's commitment to democracy.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 25, 2020 15:04:50 GMT
The Republican majority in NC is veto-proof. Yes, they quite scandalously changed the rules when they lost the governorship - sometimes, given partisan gerrymandering of districts, voter suppression, etc., one doubts the USA's commitment to democracy. As any player of Civilisation can tell you, Republics are not Democracies.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2020 16:10:04 GMT
The Republican majority in NC is veto-proof. Yes, they quite scandalously changed the rules when they lost the governorship - sometimes, given partisan gerrymandering of districts, voter suppression, etc., one doubts the USA's commitment to democracy. The US hasn't been a democracy for some time - imho ....
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 25, 2020 16:18:54 GMT
Does the US not have laws against treating?
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Post by matureleft on Sept 25, 2020 16:27:34 GMT
Does the US not have laws against treating? Probably, but if they’ve been careful to divorce a vote preference from the fine payment they could be ok. And it’s being done by someone other than a candidate’s team. Under the appalling US system people can run nakedly partisan campaigns outside finance controls so this may be an example of what that permissive approach allows. I read that it was being investigated.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,282
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 25, 2020 16:31:09 GMT
Does the US not have laws against treating? Well, he can claim it was a humanitarian act with no strings attached. The real scandal is how Florida (and other states) removed voters from the register for what were often decades-old minor offences, often based on racially-motivated charges. It has kept many black people off the register, whose main offence appeared to be to have been black at the wrong time in history.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 25, 2020 16:48:00 GMT
I heard a programmne on Times Radio about this issue recently. Some people are "excluded" from the voters roll for such trivial things as not paying minor fines and one case was even more trivial but I forget the detail [something you wouldnt even get a caution for in UK] and many of these people are excluded for life...and they all tend to be poor and usually black.. hmmm
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,282
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 25, 2020 17:48:26 GMT
If current polls hold, the endgame of the Trump presidency will be that the Republican Party makes gains with non-white voters and loses little to no ground with the young, but comfortably loses the election due to massive losses with white and elderly voters. Will any part of The Discourse survive? Education (college vs. non-college) has become ever more important as a cleavage and Blacks and Hispanics are less likely to be college educated than Whites and Asians, so it's natural that ethnic polarization becomes slightly less extreme as more (primarily working class male) conservative Hispanics and (to a much lesser degree) Blacks vote Republican while college educated Whites (especially married women, who used to vote more like their husbands) drop the GOP. The growing rural/urban cleavage is also likely to affect "old stock" Hispanics (probably less so for Blacks as rural blacks are quite churchy and Black churches play key role in mobilizing support for the Democrats). Many Hispanics whose family have been in the US for generations are basically just "white ethnics" and there is no reason why a guy named Gonzalez whose ancestors fled Mexico in the 1910s during the Revolution should vote differently than a guy named Valetti whose ancestors fled poverty in Southern Italy at the same time. Biden doesn't appeal to young voters, but they intensely dislike Trump (and are disproportionally college educated and relatively poor) and I think Trump's share of the youth vote will end up dropping even further despite the polls. Well, many Latinos have been in the western states longer than they were US territories and haven't moved/fled to the US at all. They have been around for centuries.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,543
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 25, 2020 19:29:11 GMT
Yes, they quite scandalously changed the rules when they lost the governorship - sometimes, given partisan gerrymandering of districts, voter suppression, etc., one doubts the USA's commitment to democracy. As any player of Civilisation can tell you, Republics are not Democracies. The USA wasn't founded on the basis of democracy, it was founded on the basis of power masquerading as on the basis of democracy. It's always favoured elites as it was designed to do...
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Sept 25, 2020 21:19:27 GMT
I realise that, rather than being nefarious, he's trying to be relatable. However, while there are forums where this approach can work, this wasn't one of them. It can easily come across as insulting and highly disrespectful to servicemen and women. It was a stupid thing to say.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 25, 2020 22:02:20 GMT
To be honest I don’t think it matters what either candidate says or does, I think that clip of Biden won’t change anything, trump can have a pussygate again and that won’t change anything the debates are now almost meaningless. The polls for most of the year have showed very little movement, the people have made up there mind on either trump or Biden the question now is who gets there voters out.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 25, 2020 22:10:17 GMT
To be honest I don’t think it matters what either candidate says or does, I think that clip of Biden won’t change anything, trump can have a pussygate again and that won’t change anything the debates are now almost meaningless. The polls for most of the year have showed very little movement, the people have made up there mind on either trump or Biden the question now is who gets there voters out. I always wonder about the context of a clip, that would probably been broadcast live at the time, only surfacing four years later.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Sept 25, 2020 22:17:13 GMT
To be honest I don’t think it matters what either candidate says or does, I think that clip of Biden won’t change anything, trump can have a pussygate again and that won’t change anything the debates are now almost meaningless. The polls for most of the year have showed very little movement, the people have made up there mind on either trump or Biden the question now is who gets there voters out. I always wonder about the context of a clip, that would probably been broadcast live at the time, only surfacing four years later. Exactly it won’t gain traction but it’s about creating a narrative before the big show down on Tuesday next week the first debate.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 25, 2020 22:29:48 GMT
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Sept 26, 2020 9:55:01 GMT
I realise that, rather than being nefarious, he's trying to be relatable. However, while there are forums where this approach can work, this wasn't one of them. It can easily come across as insulting and highly disrespectful to servicemen and women. It was a stupid thing to say. Armed Forces personnel are widely known to be very sensitive to such talk. It is far more serious than allegedly turning a blind eye to the Russians putting a bounty on US troops so I agree that this could really hurt Biden.
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