The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,531
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 24, 2020 10:59:14 GMT
If current polls hold, the endgame of the Trump presidency will be that the Republican Party makes gains with non-white voters and loses little to no ground with the young, but comfortably loses the election due to massive losses with white and elderly voters. Will any part of The Discourse survive? As we should be well aware of here, Discourses have a habit of proving remarkably resilient against even hard fact.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
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Post by mondialito on Sept 24, 2020 11:47:22 GMT
The Biden campaign's general complacency towards Hispanics has been confusing to me. Even if you put Cuban-Americans to one side as a special case, there seems to be an assumption that other Hispanic voters will stick with the Democrat candidate because of Trump's rhetoric, which carries risks. There is a complacency towards ethnic and sexual minorities on the left generally across the democratic world. It's slowly coming back to bite them. Actually, I wouldn't disagree.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Sept 24, 2020 12:18:56 GMT
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 12:26:31 GMT
See me two hours ago, post #6814 😉
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Sept 24, 2020 13:25:12 GMT
See me two hours ago, post #6814 😉 Must admit I have you on ignore (nothing personal, but you post so much the thread is more readable if I can just skip your posts). I get my news about the election elsewhere and most of what you post is news and polls.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 13:27:42 GMT
See me two hours ago, post #6814 😉 Must admit I have you on ignore (nothing personal, but you post so much the thread is more readable if I can just skip your posts). Congrats, you’ve rendered me speechless, a feat many have attempted but few succeeded.
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nelson
Non-Aligned
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Post by nelson on Sept 24, 2020 13:50:39 GMT
If current polls hold, the endgame of the Trump presidency will be that the Republican Party makes gains with non-white voters and loses little to no ground with the young, but comfortably loses the election due to massive losses with white and elderly voters. Will any part of The Discourse survive? Education (college vs. non-college) has become ever more important as a cleavage and Blacks and Hispanics are less likely to be college educated than Whites and Asians, so it's natural that ethnic polarization becomes slightly less extreme as more (primarily working class male) conservative Hispanics and (to a much lesser degree) Blacks vote Republican while college educated Whites (especially married women, who used to vote more like their husbands) drop the GOP. The growing rural/urban cleavage is also likely to affect "old stock" Hispanics (probably less so for Blacks as rural blacks are quite churchy and Black churches play key role in mobilizing support for the Democrats). Many Hispanics whose family have been in the US for generations are basically just "white ethnics" and there is no reason why a guy named Gonzalez whose ancestors fled Mexico in the 1910s during the Revolution should vote differently than a guy named Valetti whose ancestors fled poverty in Southern Italy at the same time. Biden doesn't appeal to young voters, but they intensely dislike Trump (and are disproportionally college educated and relatively poor) and I think Trump's share of the youth vote will end up dropping even further despite the polls.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,706
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Post by iain on Sept 24, 2020 14:28:07 GMT
I’ve been sceptical of the idea of Wisconsin voting to the left of Pennsylvania, but here’s an interesting thread from Nate Cohn outlining why this may be the case:
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2020 15:01:59 GMT
See me two hours ago, post #6814 😉 Must admit I have you on ignore (nothing personal, but you post so much the thread is more readable if I can just skip your posts). I get my news about the election elsewhere and most of what you post is news and polls. 😦 The logic of this is that you put everyone on ignore, so playing catch-up is a breeze......
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 24, 2020 15:07:33 GMT
New SurveyMonkey polls:
ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49% GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45% INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47% IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46% MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48% MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47% NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47% NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48% OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48% SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49% TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47%
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 24, 2020 15:26:11 GMT
New SurveyMonkey polls: ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49% GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45% INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47% IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46% MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48% MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47% NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47% NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48% OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48% SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49% TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47% Mishouri? Shome mishtake? Michigan perhaps?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 24, 2020 15:26:35 GMT
New SurveyMonkey polls: ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49% GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45% INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47% IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46% MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48% MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47% NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47% NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48% OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48% SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49% TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47% I'm not sure there is any consistent sense in those figures.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 24, 2020 15:28:12 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Sept 24, 2020 15:29:05 GMT
New SurveyMonkey polls: ARIZONA Trump 49% Biden 49% GEORGIA Biden 52% Trump 45% INDIANA Trump 50% Biden 47% IOWA Trump 51% Biden 46% MISSOURI Biden 48% Trump 48% MONTANA Trump 51% Biden 47% NEVADA Trump 49% Biden 47% NEW MEXICO Biden 50% Trump 48% OHIO Biden 49% Trump 48% SOUTH CAROLINA Biden 49% Trump 49% TEXAS Trump 50% Biden 47% SurveyMonkey continuing to solidify it's status as the worst pollster out there.. lol. Missouri tied, but Trump within two points in New Mexico. Nonsensical.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Sept 24, 2020 16:21:38 GMT
SurveyMonkey have always been capable of producing weird and wacky results, but the tiny sample sizes for some states (despite having a WHOLE MONTH for data collection) makes for some even more insane numbers.
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Post by greenhert on Sept 24, 2020 16:24:13 GMT
SurveyMonkey is a website, not a proper pollster.
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Post by greenchristian on Sept 24, 2020 18:14:49 GMT
Seriously, what has this got to do with Joe Biden? Nobody blames Mark Drakeford for his son. I must say, though, there is something particularly tasteless at the rapid investigation of somebody to harm his father, who has buried two of his children, one son fairly recently. It is vile. Hmm - Joe Biden VP of the USA, At the same time his son gets jobs he is not qualified for from foreign companies and transfers of millions of dollars into his account. I'd suggest that is rather naive question. Would you be asking the same question if it were Donald Trump Jr who had got $3.5 million from some woman in Russia? One of the strongest things about Biden is that pretty much all the criticisms levelled at him are more true of his opponent. Trump has faced serious allegations about his own connections with Russia, and there still hasn't been any real investigation into the allegations of his own financial connections with Russian oligarchs. And even if Biden had tried to use his position as VP to help his son, he's up against a President who put his unqualified son-in-law in charge of negotiating Middle East Peace and one of his Press Officers recommended people buy products from Ivanka's company. Even on the worst reading of Biden he is not as bad as Trump when it comes to this kind of issue.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Sept 24, 2020 18:53:56 GMT
Hmm - Joe Biden VP of the USA, At the same time his son gets jobs he is not qualified for from foreign companies and transfers of millions of dollars into his account. I'd suggest that is rather naive question. Would you be asking the same question if it were Donald Trump Jr who had got $3.5 million from some woman in Russia? One of the strongest things about Biden is that pretty much all the criticisms levelled at him are more true of his opponent. Trump has faced serious allegations about his own connections with Russia, and there still hasn't been any real investigation into the allegations of his own financial connections with Russian oligarchs. And even if Biden had tried to use his position as VP to help his son, he's up against a President who put his unqualified son-in-law in charge of negotiating Middle East Peace and one of his Press Officers recommended people buy products from Ivanka's company. Even on the worst reading of Biden he is not as bad as Trump when it comes to this kind of issue.
It’s worth noting that the report published yesterday was a purely two man deal, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin and Chuck Grassley, disowned by much of the rest of Republican Caucus, and by their own words, found no evidence of wrongdoing by Biden Sr, Biden Jr other than legally maximising opportunities that might not otherwise be available to him, no evidence of improper conduct by the Obama Administration, and no evidence of attempting to “knobble” the anti corruption inquiry in Ukraine that was going on at the time. In short it found nothing of import or consequence whatsoever.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,841
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Post by jamie on Sept 24, 2020 22:25:42 GMT
Fox News Polls:
Nevada - Biden +11 Ohio - Biden +5 Penn - Biden +7
Fox continues to be one of the better pollsters for Biden, but interesting that they only have a 2% gap between Pennsylvania and Ohio, and that Nevada number is much better for Biden than found by other pollsters (not necessarily wrong though since Dems are usually underpolled in Nevada and this would basically match universal swing).
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Post by greenhert on Sept 24, 2020 22:48:54 GMT
If such a notoriously neoconservative outfit as Fox is showing Biden ahead in its polls in key states, it is no wonder Trump is making all these ridiculous statements about the election.
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