European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jul 13, 2020 1:14:38 GMT
Just a little under the radar mention that Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker officially became the Green Party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees on Saturday. I find it slightly sad that dropping that anti-vaxx, anti-WiFi, conspiracy-theorist headcase Jill Stein is going to be followed by a major drop in their vote.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 13, 2020 1:24:49 GMT
Just a little under the radar mention that Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker officially became the Green Party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees on Saturday. I find it slightly sad that dropping that anti-vaxx, anti-WiFi, conspiracy-theorist headcase Jill Stein is going to be followed by a major drop in their vote. Although as they’ve pointed out the coronavirus pandemic has made it harder to get on State ballots this year as they haven’t been able to go door-to-door collecting petition signatures in those early filing States. They’re apparently hoping to get on some other “left wing” Party lines in States that have them; they’re listed as the candidates for the Socialist Party USA, of which Walker was the VP candidate four years ago.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 14, 2020 16:16:43 GMT
Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved seven states - Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah - from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Some of these seem a bit specious to me, but apparently Republican private polling is showing Trump behind in Kansas and only barely winning Montana, according to GOP insiders.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 14, 2020 16:47:49 GMT
Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved seven states - Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah - from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Some of these seem a bit specious to me, but apparently Republican private polling is showing Trump behind in Kansas and only barely winning Montana, according to GOP insiders. I think this explanation So we’re moving seven Safe Republican states to Likely Republican: Alaska, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina, and Utah. Do we think Biden will win these states? Not really. In all likelihood, these red states are going to vote for Trump, and not just by a few points. But could one or more flip if Biden wins decisively in November? Possibly. Let’s remember: A “Likely” rating still means we see one side -- in this case, the Republicans -- clearly favored in a state. We just don’t feel 100% certain about these states in the event of a lopsided election. indicates it’s more “this is where we could be if November turns into 1964 or 1988 territory. I note as well as the Kansas and Montana polls, he cites three public polls of Missouri which have Trump up 2, 7 and 8 points, so the re-rating there is probably justified, especially as they’ve backed up with a downgrade of Republican chances in the Governor’s race.
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Post by therealriga on Jul 15, 2020 9:16:55 GMT
Predictably, Kanye West has dropped out. Oh well, publicity achieved.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 9:47:52 GMT
Predictably, Kanye West has dropped out. Oh well, publicity achieved. I'm sure someone must have a list somewhere of the shortest POTUS campaigns ever ? .. although if not here, then nowhere ..
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 10:19:06 GMT
CBS News Battleground Tracker YouGov
Efforts to Contain Coronavirus in Your State Are
Arizona
Going Well 31% Going Badly 69%
Florida
Going Well 34% Going Badly 65%
Texas
Going Well 37% Going Badly 62%
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Jul 15, 2020 16:15:47 GMT
I find it slightly sad that dropping that anti-vaxx, anti-WiFi, conspiracy-theorist headcase Jill Stein is going to be followed by a major drop in their vote. Although as they’ve pointed out the coronavirus pandemic has made it harder to get on State ballots this year as they haven’t been able to go door-to-door collecting petition signatures in those early filing States. They’re apparently hoping to get on some other “left wing” Party lines in States that have them; they’re listed as the candidates for the Socialist Party USA, of which Walker was the VP candidate four years ago. It has been officially confirmed on the Facebook page of Socialist Party USA and of the Greens that this will be a joint ticket for them and the Greens. As European Lefty has pointed out, it's sad that their candidate will do poorly. If I lived in the USA, I'd be torn into voting Biden just get the tangoman out or Hawkins and Walker just as they're closest to my views. Re: Kayne West - it was all a publicity stunt. It was too unrealistic for him to try and make any ballot paper between now and the deadline. If he announced the end of 2019, he could have got a few states to give him access and obtained write-in status in others. The man has an ego the size of the USA!
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Post by curiousliberal on Jul 15, 2020 22:05:30 GMT
It seems he's back in and has qualified for the easiest state (where a fee alone can get one on the ballot):
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Jul 16, 2020 1:04:40 GMT
Shakeup in the Trump campaign.
Parscale demoted to senior advisor for digital and data strategies, and Bill Stepien named as the new campaign manager.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 16, 2020 10:58:37 GMT
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Jul 16, 2020 12:50:22 GMT
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Jul 16, 2020 18:08:44 GMT
Bye Bye Trumpy hopefully. As for Kayne West, say he gets on a few ballots and gets "write-in" access, how realistically will he finish? I can see him on about 1-1.5% perhaps keeping the Libertarian and Green candidates company in the race for third.
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 16, 2020 18:51:57 GMT
It would make an interesting betting market. "Who will come 3rd in the POTUS election?"
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jul 16, 2020 18:54:38 GMT
Bye Bye Trumpy hopefully. As for Kayne West, say he gets on a few ballots and gets "write-in" access, how realistically will he finish? I can see him on about 1-1.5% perhaps keeping the Libertarian and Green candidates company in the race for third.
Dry run for the Republican nomination in 2024
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Jul 16, 2020 21:37:13 GMT
Bye Bye Trumpy hopefully. As for Kayne West, say he gets on a few ballots and gets "write-in" access, how realistically will he finish? I can see him on about 1-1.5% perhaps keeping the Libertarian and Green candidates company in the race for third.
Dry run for the Republican nomination in 2024
You know what, I wouldn't rule that out.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 7:17:04 GMT
The Hill/HarrisX (July 7-10 2020)
Who do you believe would do a better job with the following
Growing the Economy Trump 42% Biden 36% Same 11% Not Sure 11%
New Jobs Trump 42% Biden 36% Same 11% Not Sure 11%
Lowering Deficit Biden 37% Trump 34% Same 15% Not Sure 15%
Economic Inequality Biden 43% Trump 31% Same 13% Not Sure 12%
Poll of 2,841 Registered Voters Margin of Error 1.9%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 17, 2020 20:46:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2020 18:39:17 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 19, 2020 23:32:52 GMT
Two polls out today from, what are considered, serious pollsters. Both of registered voters from 12-15 July. ABC/WaPo figures seem a bit wild though - 1964 style.
ABC/ Washington Post (https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1214a22020Election.pdf) Biden - 55 Trump - 40
Fox News (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/07/Fox_July-12-15-2020_Complete_National_Topline_July-19-Release.pdf) Biden - 49 Trump - 41
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