|
Post by London Lad on Jul 9, 2020 14:07:58 GMT
Interesting monologue from Tucker Carlson yesterday about an article in the NYT suggesting that Joe Biden avoid the one on one Presidential debates. I can see the argument, Biden is already 8 points clear so only has something to lose and 6 hours of one-on-one is bound to expose more of his stuttering faculties. Also would it matter if he did skip the debates? - I cant see his supporters caring that much and I'm not sure that there are that many floating voters who have not already made up their minds by now either way. He could be the first guy to win the presidency from his basement.. He’s already signed up to three, the only thing still to be decided are moderators, although Chris Wallace of Fox hinted he wouldn’t be doing one this year, and whether or not they can have an audience. This bull crap about “stuttering faculties” kinda crashed and burned in his one on one debate with Sanders which is said to have convinced Sanders to suspend his campaign as he’d seen it as the last chance to check the momentum Biden had built since Super Tuesday. If he didn’t do them that would potentially sow the seeds of doubt about him not being up to it. But would that really matter?. Many people are already half expecting that at some point in a Biden presidency the VP will take over hence the extra focus this year on who will be VP.
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 9, 2020 14:18:02 GMT
Supreme Court just ruled 7-2 that Trump's tax returns must be handed over to the New York prosecutor. The kicker is that both of Trump's Supreme Court picks were in the majority. (Thomas and Alito were the dissenters) www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-635_o7jq.pdf
|
|
|
Post by matureleft on Jul 9, 2020 14:42:36 GMT
Supreme Court just ruled 7-2 that Trump's tax returns must be handed over to the New York prosecutor. The kicker is that both of Trump's Supreme Court picks were in the majority. (Thomas and Alito were the dissenters) www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-635_o7jq.pdfYup, but they have turned down the demand for tax returns to be provided to Congress. That would have placed them, inevitably, in the public domain. The New York case should provide plenty of space for pushing the matter beyond November, I think. The Congress judgement will be interesting, as precedent would suggest that the documents should be provided, so presumably they have sought to limit that supposed right of the legislative branch.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 16:03:39 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 16:12:06 GMT
Wonder if they've got the Kardashian West Allergy ...
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jul 9, 2020 16:38:15 GMT
Supreme Court just ruled 7-2 that Trump's tax returns must be handed over to the New York prosecutor. The kicker is that both of Trump's Supreme Court picks were in the majority. (Thomas and Alito were the dissenters) www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-635_o7jq.pdfYup, but they have turned down the demand for tax returns to be provided to Congress. That would have placed them, inevitably, in the public domain. The New York case should provide plenty of space for pushing the matter beyond November, I think. The Congress judgement will be interesting, as precedent would suggest that the documents should be provided, so presumably they have sought to limit that supposed right of the legislative branch. So if they are handed over to the prosecutor, but not to Congress, what difference does that actually make? Unless you think it wont be "leaked" in any way shape or form?
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 9, 2020 16:53:55 GMT
Supreme Court just ruled 7-2 that Trump's tax returns must be handed over to the New York prosecutor. The kicker is that both of Trump's Supreme Court picks were in the majority. (Thomas and Alito were the dissenters) www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/19pdf/19-635_o7jq.pdfYup, but they have turned down the demand for tax returns to be provided to Congress. That would have placed them, inevitably, in the public domain. The New York case should provide plenty of space for pushing the matter beyond November, I think. The Congress judgement will be interesting, as precedent would suggest that the documents should be provided, so presumably they have sought to limit that supposed right of the legislative branch. They haven’t exactly done that; they’ve said Congress didn’t give enough weight to Separation of Powers, but the Circuit Court gave too much weight, so they’ve if Congress still wants to issue a subpoena they’ve got to go back to court and try and reach a middle ground with that court, but it doesn’t say that they carte blanche have no right to his records. It’s almost identical to the other ruling, which says that the DA has the right to subpoena records but the President has other avenues, that are available to every citizen, to fight the subpoena in court, so both cases are going to be relitigated. (Useless trivia, the DA in question is Cyrus Vance Jr, son of Jimmy Carter’s Secretary of State).
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,883
|
Post by jamie on Jul 9, 2020 17:58:57 GMT
North Carolina (PPP)
President: Biden - 50% Trump - 46%
Senate: Cunningham (D) - 47% Tillie (R-Incumbent) - 39%
Undecideds in the Senate race are Trumpy, but an incumbent Senator significantly underperforming Trump’s margin, and particularly his absolute level of support, is pretty worrying for them. Biden ahead by 4% is not surprising considering the national picture and PPP bing modestly Dem leaning.
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Jul 10, 2020 14:21:28 GMT
Having had most of Trump's own economically populist agenda stalled by a combination of his own incompetence and resistance from Congressional Republicans (particularly McConnell), the president's team is reportedly furious. Their own "Buy America" draft was stalled by Kushner and Mnuchin.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 10, 2020 16:32:53 GMT
Having had most of Trump's own economically populist agenda stalled by a combination of his own incompetence and resistance from Congressional Republicans (particularly McConnell), the president's team is reportedly furious. Their own "Buy America" draft was stalled by Kushner and Mnuchin. Build back better. Now where have I heard that before?
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Jul 10, 2020 22:41:32 GMT
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 10, 2020 23:54:10 GMT
Norpoth's model ignores polls and looks at the performance of the candidates in primary elections, together with the GNP growth.
The problem is the primary season this year was abnormal - being less a contest between candidates than between wings, and also being cut off part way through by the COVID-19 pandemic. And the GNP figures are about to take a sharp nosedive.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 11, 2020 0:20:29 GMT
Pretty bloody silly claim about his model correctly predicting elections since primaries were introduced in 1912; up until 1972 national primaries didn’t exist, and in most cases you deferred to a home State candidate. As recently as 1968 there were four candidates who only ran in their home State primary in order to accrue enough delegates to control the State’s delegation at the Convention and vote for Humphrey. Equally I’m not at all sure how the model accommodates a coronation, which effectively applies to Trump this year or Obama in 2012, with a contested Primary campaign which the Democrats had this year up until Super Tuesday, or both sides largely had in 2016.
|
|
|
Post by manchesterman on Jul 11, 2020 9:38:11 GMT
If Prof Norpoth will back up his odds with a bet , I will put down a stake of £1000 if he gives me 10-1 odds as per his prediction model
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2020 9:51:53 GMT
Is Professor Norpoth the David Plouffe of 2020?
|
|
|
Post by London Lad on Jul 12, 2020 0:45:50 GMT
Is the support for the BLM protests and calls to defund the Police and tear down statues starting to hurt the Dems?. It's also interesting that people are supporting Biden to get rid of Trump and not because they actually want Biden.
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Jul 12, 2020 0:57:16 GMT
Is the support for the BLM protests and calls to defund the Police and tear down statues starting to hurt the Dems?. It's also interesting that people are supporting Biden to get rid of Trump and not because they actually want Biden. The Democracy Institute's website does not suggest they're near the epitome of objective research and they're not even listed (let alone rated) by 538. Crosstab health warnings apply as usual, but one of their recent polls had Trump north of 40% with black voters. I wouldn't take them particularly seriously in the absence of accreditation from more sources.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 12, 2020 3:51:32 GMT
Is the support for the BLM protests and calls to defund the Police and tear down statues starting to hurt the Dems?. It's also interesting that people are supporting Biden to get rid of Trump and not because they actually want Biden. The Democracy Institute's website does not suggest they're near the epitome of objective research and they're not even listed (let alone rated) by 538. Crosstab health warnings apply as usual, but one of their recent polls had Trump north of 40% with black voters. I wouldn't take them particularly seriously in the absence of accreditation from more sources. Hmmm 🤔 wikispooks.com/wiki/Democracy_Institute
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,777
|
Post by The Bishop on Jul 12, 2020 9:14:29 GMT
It doesn't matter, any poll giving Trump that amount of black support is clearly fit only for the garbage bin.
|
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jul 13, 2020 0:45:22 GMT
Just a little under the radar mention that Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker officially became the Green Party’s Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees on Saturday.
|
|