timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 20, 2020 0:58:45 GMT
Two polls out today from, what are considered, serious pollsters. Both of registered voters from 12-15 July. ABC/WaPo figures seem a bit wild though - 1964 style. ABC/ Washington Post (https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1214a22020Election.pdf) Biden - 55 Trump - 40 Fox News (https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/07/Fox_July-12-15-2020_Complete_National_Topline_July-19-Release.pdf) Biden - 49 Trump - 41 The ABC/WaPo drops to 54-44 amongst likely voters, still good for Biden/bad for Trump whichever way you want to look at it, but, at 10% Biden, more in line with most of the other polling.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2020 6:14:29 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2020 6:24:14 GMT
And now for two perfectly stable clips from a perfectly ordinary Presidential candidate.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2020 6:44:19 GMT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 20, 2020 9:54:35 GMT
The riots in Portland have been pretty crazy (an area known for Antifa activity); however, clips of federal troops acting like storm-troopers for tyrannies are hurting Trump. Here's a Navy veteran who was trying to talk to the feds, and see how they react. (The guy must have diamond bones - they literally bat him to no effect!)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 20, 2020 10:45:34 GMT
All completely normal, nothing to see here.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 20, 2020 11:26:35 GMT
The riots in Portland have been pretty crazy (an area known for Antifa activity); however, clips of federal troops acting like storm-troopers for tyrannies are hurting Trump. Here's a Navy veteran who was trying to talk to the feds, and see how they react. (The guy must have diamond bones - they literally bat him to no effect!) Ouch, he'll be sore in the morning. Did you see though, the imperial guardsman (or whatever these masked loons are) checked around to try to make sure no one was watching before failing to take the vet down? The States decline has started and their President is more interested is massaging his own ego by promoting laughably fake news pretending that his government's handling of COVID-19 hasn't been an utter disaster.
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Max
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Post by Max on Jul 20, 2020 20:14:04 GMT
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 20, 2020 20:15:57 GMT
Lord I can remember the days when Kasich was considered right wing.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 20, 2020 20:31:56 GMT
And now for two perfectly stable clips from a perfectly ordinary Presidential candidate. And in the end, he didn't submit a single one of the 10,000 signatures he needed to get on the ballot in South Carolina. I'm still fairly sure this is a cynical publicity stunt, but upon watching those videos I actually felt pretty bad for him. That's not the behaviour of a stable person
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 20, 2020 20:42:00 GMT
Former Governor of Ohio, John Kasich will be speaking at the Democratic National Convention.
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 20, 2020 22:57:21 GMT
Pretty major for anoraks, but I imagine that it will probably influence very few voters to switch to Biden. It will certainly help build a narrative though.
I wonder, too, how much influence it'll have in Ohio. Obama won it twice, but it seems most commentators think Georgia or North Carolina are more likely to vote Democrat this time around.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 21, 2020 0:28:38 GMT
Pretty major for anoraks, but I imagine that it will probably influence very few voters to switch to Biden. It will certainly help build a narrative though. I wonder, too, how much influence it'll have in Ohio. Obama won it twice, but it seems most commentators think Georgia or North Carolina are more likely to vote Democrat this time around. Where I think it’s significant is in reinforcing those middle class, predominantly white, Republicans who voted reluctantly for Trump in 2016 but are now really reluctant to do so again that Biden is a safe haven - he’s not going to end the American Dream as they know it, so not shift many votes you’re right, but reinforce some potentially soft support.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2020 9:43:04 GMT
I think Trump will keep Ohio - it voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2004. I also think Iowa and Maine's 2nd Congressional District are unlikely to flip back given Trump's rural white base.
A lot of people who voted for Kasich in the 2016 primary defected to the Democrats in 2016 - the rich commuter towns of Connecticut flipped from Romney to Clinton (many of which voted for John Kasich in the primary).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 21, 2020 10:27:50 GMT
Well tbf I certainly recall Zell Miller's intervention making a few waves in the 2004 contest.
Kasich could similarly give some anti-Trump GOPers the "validation" they are looking for to vote for Biden this year.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 21, 2020 11:04:53 GMT
Shows, arguably, just how much the 'cultural war' stuff dominates U.S. politics nowadays. Kasich has always been pretty dry on economics, has he not?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 21, 2020 11:13:40 GMT
Well tbf I certainly recall Zell Miller's intervention making a few waves in the 2004 contest. Kasich could similarly give some anti-Trump GOPers the "validation" they are looking for to vote for Biden this year. Possibly slightly different because Miller was still a serving Senator (albeit one who was retiring), whereas Kasich is out of office with no obvious route back unless Portman stands down in 2022. Agree with your “validation” comment, it echoes the point i was trying to make in my earlier post.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2020 11:22:30 GMT
Shows, arguably, just how much the 'cultural war' stuff dominates U.S. politics nowadays. Kasich has always been pretty dry on economics, has he not? Exactly! Despite the Trump tax cuts, he's hemorrhaging voters in the suburbs in droves.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 21, 2020 11:36:22 GMT
Shows, arguably, just how much the 'cultural war' stuff dominates U.S. politics nowadays. Kasich has always been pretty dry on economics, has he not? He was pretty conservative on the social stuff as well, though he has moderated in recent years.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 22, 2020 8:49:55 GMT
It's a measure of how utterly inept Trump is that he's managed to completely lose this argument on law & order, despite all the pieces lining up for him:
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