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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 8:24:28 GMT
Much too early to read anything into the state polling, but will be interesting to see if those Ohio numbers hold up. It is also notable that OH is one of the states where a Governor is responding very aggressively to Covid 19. I've not had a chance to look at what happened to Bush post-Katrina, but Trump's approvals in a week or two should give some indication over what impact (if any) his handling of the current crisis has had. Marist also had a poll of Arizona which gave Biden a much narrower lead, but I would expect AZ to flip before OH, notable that the Senate race there has been slowly trending Kelly's way. As a general rule GE polls aren't a reliable indicator before September, but they are fun to look at anyway, I expect people on this forum to be well aware that they aren't a reliable indicator so it's not necessary to say it every time you post one. AZ is one of the six battle ground states (MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ and NC) and obviously different from somewhere like OH, but OH is a state where Trump's favorability has declined a lot, so it's interesting to follow. It's a state that could flip if things go really wrong for Trump and Biden wins big, it's certainly more likely to flip than IN was in 2008 when Obama won it. I don't think the Corona virus crisis is comparable to Katrina. This crisis is bigger in every possible way and will have consequences for not just the American, but the global economy. It has ended the bull market, exposed the frailty of long supply lines and the US crisis management and health care set up, plus it coincides with the Saudi/Russian feud over oil prices that threatens the US shale oil industry. I was thinking this. Katrina devastated southern States in the gulf, namely Louisanna. Corona will affect almost everyone |
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 17, 2020 8:40:33 GMT
As a general rule GE polls aren't a reliable indicator before September, but they are fun to look at anyway, I expect people on this forum to be well aware that they aren't a reliable indicator so it's not necessary to say it every time you post one. AZ is one of the six battle ground states (MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ and NC) and obviously different from somewhere like OH, but OH is a state where Trump's favorability has declined a lot, so it's interesting to follow. It's a state that could flip if things go really wrong for Trump and Biden wins big, it's certainly more likely to flip than IN was in 2008 when Obama won it. I don't think the Corona virus crisis is comparable to Katrina. This crisis is bigger in every possible way and will have consequences for not just the American, but the global economy. It has ended the bull market, exposed the frailty of long supply lines and the US crisis management and health care set up, plus it coincides with the Saudi/Russian feud over oil prices that threatens the US shale oil industry. I was thinking this. Katrina devastated southern States in the gulf, namely Louisanna. Corona will affect almost everyone Agree on the magnitude of Corona vs Katrina, I was thinking of it more in terms of a crisis with the same sort of potential to expose the incumbent to charges of incompetence etc... another big difference is that Katrina happened to a second term president, three years out from the next presidential election. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 9:11:58 GMT
$2 trillion has been spent on preventing the stock market crashing. That's the cost of the Iraq War to date.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 17, 2020 9:29:41 GMT
A judge of the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas has rejected DeWine’s application to postpone. No comment yet about any appeal from the State. It seems that there was insufficient time for an appeal but the primary won't be taking place anyway. Late last night DeWine announced that the Ohio Director of Health has ordered the polls closed due to a health emergency. I have seen conflicting reports on the legality of this move. Apparently the Secretary of State will be going to court today to try and sort out the mess. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Mar 17, 2020 10:03:29 GMT
I find it hard to see how Sanders can stay in the race after tonight. Ignoring the fact Biden is almost certainly on course to win anyways, we are also unlikely to see many actual primaries conducted for a long time after tonight due to coronavirus. If Sanders carried on, it would have to be for months and with the distinct possibility that a decent number of delegates are never even voted for (and Biden coronated as a consequence). What’s he got to gain by staying 8n for that?
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Mar 17, 2020 11:02:00 GMT
I find it hard to see how Sanders can stay in the race after tonight. Ignoring the fact Biden is almost certainly on course to win anyways, we are also unlikely to see many actual primaries conducted for a long time after tonight due to coronavirus. If Sanders carried on, it would have to be for months and with the distinct possibility that a decent number of delegates are never even voted for (and Biden coronated as a consequence). What’s he got to gain by staying 8n for that? You know it. We know it. He surely knows it. But he is surrounded by the US version of Momentum, for who "No surrender to the establishment" is religion. They will want to fight till the end I suspect... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 17, 2020 11:17:10 GMT
I was thinking this. Katrina devastated southern States in the gulf, namely Louisanna. Corona will affect almost everyone Agree on the magnitude of Corona vs Katrina, I was thinking of it more in terms of a crisis with the same sort of potential to expose the incumbent to charges of incompetence etc... another big difference is that Katrina happened to a second term president, three years out from the next presidential election. But there is an argument the GOP never really recovered from the damage, resulting in both the 2006 Democrat "wave" and Obama's triumph two years later. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 17, 2020 11:32:32 GMT
I find it hard to see how Sanders can stay in the race after tonight. Ignoring the fact Biden is almost certainly on course to win anyways, we are also unlikely to see many actual primaries conducted for a long time after tonight due to coronavirus. If Sanders carried on, it would have to be for months and with the distinct possibility that a decent number of delegates are never even voted for (and Biden coronated as a consequence). What’s he got to gain by staying 8n for that? You know it. We know it. He surely knows it. But he is surrounded by the US version of Momentum, for who "No surrender to the establishment" is religion. They will want to fight till the end I suspect... Circumstances might change if more primaries are cancelled but there was a piece in the Washington Post on Sunday where senior operatives in his campaign were pretty much conceding that it was now about using their resources and organisation to assist like minded candidates down ballot to leave a long-term transformation in the Party as those candidates moved up the ladder in years to come. |
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 17, 2020 19:59:07 GMT
Maryland is going to postpone its presidential primary from 28 April to 2 June.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 17, 2020 21:46:13 GMT
When will we have the results of today's primaries?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 17, 2020 21:53:25 GMT
When will we have the results of today's primaries? Florida closes at 7pm ET (11pm here), Illinois at 8ET and Arizona at 9ET; it’s possible, maybe probable, that the networks will call the States pretty quickly for Biden if the polling is anything like accurate. |
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Post by dizz on Mar 17, 2020 23:13:34 GMT
Initial Florida vote (2%) - Biden £149k & £55k. 55% to 20%. Changing very quickly. NYT
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Mar 17, 2020 23:21:06 GMT
Pounds??
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Post by dizz on Mar 17, 2020 23:21:12 GMT
Now 267k to 98k votes.
56% to 20%. Bloomberg getting 13% reflecting the fact that theses are early votes.
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Post by dizz on Mar 17, 2020 23:48:48 GMT
817k to 306k
60.3% to 22.6%.
Biden is walking it in Florida!
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Post by dizz on Mar 18, 2020 0:02:12 GMT
NYT projects Florida for Biden.
Assume they waited for the west Florida polling stations to close.
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Post by Andrew_S on Mar 18, 2020 0:07:01 GMT
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Post by dizz on Mar 18, 2020 0:18:49 GMT
First results in Illinois:
Kane County (west of Chicago) 13.2k to 5.7k.
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Post by dizz on Mar 18, 2020 0:21:41 GMT
Early vote in Illinois is 64% Biden & 29% Sanders.
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Post by dizz on Mar 18, 2020 0:23:44 GMT
By the way in recent days the Sanders' lead in California has been stretching.
Was around 6.7% but is now 7.1% as more votes come in from Southern California.
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