Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Mar 15, 2020 13:08:59 GMT
As things stand Biden looks poised to deliver the knockout blow on Tuesday by winning a big chunk of the 577 delegates up for grabs in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Tonight's debate is almost certainly Sanders last chance to change the game before it is too late. It will be interesting to see what he does. Does he dare go after Biden in the strongest possible manner, knowing that it is likely futile and will only serve the interests of Donald Trump? Does he do something to try and broaden his appeal? Or does he just stick to the same themes as he has throughout the campaign?
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,635
|
Post by mboy on Mar 15, 2020 13:46:32 GMT
As things stand Biden looks poised to deliver the knockout blow on Tuesday by winning a big chunk of the 577 delegates up for grabs in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Tonight's debate is almost certainly Sanders last chance to change the game before it is too late. It will be interesting to see what he does. Does he dare go after Biden in the strongest possible manner, knowing that it is likely futile and will only serve the interests of Donald Trump? Does he do something to try and broaden his appeal? Or does he just stick to the same themes as he has throughout the campaign? I think Sanders is personally a fairly honorable person, and he wont go to try to destroy Biden underhandedly. The debate will inevitably be dominated by health, and I’m sure Sanders will push the angle that only his healthcare plan can tackle the virus. Biden needs a well prepared defence for this. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2020 14:52:07 GMT
As things stand Biden looks poised to deliver the knockout blow on Tuesday by winning a big chunk of the 577 delegates up for grabs in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. Tonight's debate is almost certainly Sanders last chance to change the game before it is too late. It will be interesting to see what he does. Does he dare go after Biden in the strongest possible manner, knowing that it is likely futile and will only serve the interests of Donald Trump? Does he do something to try and broaden his appeal? Or does he just stick to the same themes as he has throughout the campaign? I think Sanders is personally a fairly honorable person, and he wont go to try to destroy Biden underhandedly. The debate will inevitably be dominated by health, and I’m sure Sanders will push the angle that only his healthcare plan can tackle the virus. Biden needs a well prepared defence for this. Coronavirus is the strongest argument for Bernie's policies of Medicare for All and paid leave I've seen so far. |
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,635
|
Post by mboy on Mar 16, 2020 9:19:18 GMT
Anyone watch the debate? No knock-out blows, apparently.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,853
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Mar 16, 2020 11:33:13 GMT
Yes, barring something truly extraordinary/unforeseen Biden is going to be the Democrat nominee. I hope my worries about that prove to be unjustified.
|
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Mar 16, 2020 13:20:15 GMT
Yes, barring something truly extraordinary/unforeseen Biden is going to be the Democrat nominee. I hope my worries about that prove to be unjustified. Well he was perfectly fine in a two hour head to head debate where his opponent went after his record in pretty strong terms. Most pundits seem to be giving him a points win and there was certainly nothing there to suggest senility or that he will be unable to handle what Trump throws at him in the debates. |
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Mar 16, 2020 14:01:34 GMT
Yes, barring something truly extraordinary/unforeseen Biden is going to be the Democrat nominee. I hope my worries about that prove to be unjustified. Well he was perfectly fine in a two hour head to head debate where his opponent went after his record in pretty strong terms. Most pundits seem to be giving him a points win and there was certainly nothing there to suggest senility or that he will be unable to handle what Trump throws at him in the debates. I've only seen the highlights, but thought Biden was much more surefooted and benefited from it being a one-on-one set up. Sanders was also more combative than I expected, which may suggest he plans to plod on regardless of what happens on Tuesday. Biden's commitment to select a female running mate is a smart way to underline his status as presumptive nominee. Is it possible he may tap potential cabinet appointees? Similar to Trump's placating his own base with a shortlist of conservative judges in 2016? |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 16, 2020 14:06:25 GMT
Just thinking that Biden's big problem in previous Presidential runs was his propensity to make verbal gaffes. With Donald Trump as his opponent, that's much less of an issue.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Mar 16, 2020 16:55:32 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by adlai52 on Mar 16, 2020 17:59:13 GMT
Much too early to read anything into the state polling, but will be interesting to see if those Ohio numbers hold up. It is also notable that OH is one of the states where a Governor is responding very aggressively to Covid 19. I've not had a chance to look at what happened to Bush post-Katrina, but Trump's approvals in a week or two should give some indication over what impact (if any) his handling of the current crisis has had. Marist also had a poll of Arizona which gave Biden a much narrower lead, but I would expect AZ to flip before OH, notable that the Senate race there has been slowly trending Kelly's way. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 21:12:42 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2020 22:35:27 GMT
Much too early to read anything into the state polling, but will be interesting to see if those Ohio numbers hold up. It is also notable that OH is one of the states where a Governor is responding very aggressively to Covid 19. I've not had a chance to look at what happened to Bush post-Katrina, but Trump's approvals in a week or two should give some indication over what impact (if any) his handling of the current crisis has had. Marist also had a poll of Arizona which gave Biden a much narrower lead, but I would expect AZ to flip before OH, notable that the Senate race there has been slowly trending Kelly's way. Most polls in 2019 showed Trump trailing in Ohio. I struggle to see his 400,000 vote margin from 2016 being overturned. |
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Mar 16, 2020 22:57:01 GMT
|
|
CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,707
|
Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 16, 2020 23:16:52 GMT
You are indeed a star. A great way to cope with the self-isolating when it comes. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 17, 2020 0:26:36 GMT
Well he was perfectly fine in a two hour head to head debate where his opponent went after his record in pretty strong terms. Most pundits seem to be giving him a points win and there was certainly nothing there to suggest senility or that he will be unable to handle what Trump throws at him in the debates. Biden's commitment to select a female running mate is a smart way to underline his status as presumptive nominee. Is it possible he may tap potential cabinet appointees? Similar to Trump's placating his own base with a shortlist of conservative judges in 2016? Technically it’s illegal to do that publicly prior to the election, although whether, given the amount of semi official leaking that takes place nowadays, it would be mildly surprising if it wasn’t done in such a way that stayed just on the right side of the law. |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
|
Post by timmullen1 on Mar 17, 2020 0:33:58 GMT
A judge of the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas has rejected DeWine’s application to postpone. No comment yet about any appeal from the State. EDIT: Going back a week various news organisations are calling Washington State for Biden. This would mean Sanders only won North Dakota on Super Tuesday 2. The NYT has them on 39 delegates apiece with 11 still to be assigned. |
|
|
|
Post by curiousliberal on Mar 17, 2020 0:58:02 GMT
A judge of the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas has rejected DeWine’s application to postpone. No comment yet about any appeal from the State. EDIT: Going back a week various news organisations are calling Washington State for Biden. This would mean Sanders only won North Dakota on Super Tuesday 2. The NYT has them on 39 delegates apiece with 11 still to be assigned. And probably Democrats Abroad, for the little its 13 delegates are worth (though there's no official announcement until March 23). Kentucky has rescheduled its primary from May 19 to June 23. As with Louisiana, they are set to take a 50% delegate penalty - the DNC confirmed that this rule holds, at least for now. |
|
Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
|
Post by Richard Allen on Mar 17, 2020 1:17:34 GMT
A judge of the Franklin County Court of Common Pleas has rejected DeWine’s application to postpone. No comment yet about any appeal from the State. EDIT: Going back a week various news organisations are calling Washington State for Biden. This would mean Sanders only won North Dakota on Super Tuesday 2. The NYT has them on 39 delegates apiece with 11 still to be assigned. And probably Democrats Abroad, for the little its 13 delegates are worth (though there's no official announcement until March 23). Kentucky has rescheduled its primary from May 19 to June 23. As with Louisiana, they are set to take a 50% delegate penalty - the DNC confirmed that this rule holds, at least for now. Given the circumstances I can't imagine that the DNC will actually stick to that. |
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Mar 17, 2020 5:28:45 GMT
Kentucky's primary has been postponed from 19 May to 23 June.
|
|
nelson
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,645
|
Post by nelson on Mar 17, 2020 6:12:18 GMT
Much too early to read anything into the state polling, but will be interesting to see if those Ohio numbers hold up. It is also notable that OH is one of the states where a Governor is responding very aggressively to Covid 19. I've not had a chance to look at what happened to Bush post-Katrina, but Trump's approvals in a week or two should give some indication over what impact (if any) his handling of the current crisis has had. Marist also had a poll of Arizona which gave Biden a much narrower lead, but I would expect AZ to flip before OH, notable that the Senate race there has been slowly trending Kelly's way. As a general rule GE polls aren't a reliable indicator before September, but they are fun to look at anyway, I expect people on this forum to be well aware that they aren't a reliable indicator so it's not necessary to say it every time you post one. AZ is one of the six battle ground states (MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ and NC) and obviously different from somewhere like OH, but OH is a state where Trump's favorability has declined a lot, so it's interesting to follow. It's a state that could flip if things go really wrong for Trump and Biden wins big, it's certainly more likely to flip than IN was in 2008 when Obama won it. I don't think the Corona virus crisis is comparable to Katrina. This crisis is bigger in every possible way and will have consequences for not just the American, but the global economy. It has ended the bull market, exposed the frailty of long supply lines and the US crisis management and health care set up, plus it coincides with the Saudi/Russian feud over oil prices that threatens the US shale oil industry. |
|
