US Presidential Race 2020

[dizz]

NYT now projecting Illinois for Biden.

[Deleted]

Mar 18, 2020 0:07:01 GMT Andrew_S said:

The future is progressive.

[timmullen1]

On the other side of the aisle President Trump has won the Republican Primary in Florida thereby clearing the delegate threshold for renomination.

[timrollpickering]

How did Trump do in his new home state?

[timmullen1]

Mar 18, 2020 0:43:48 GMT timrollpickering said:

How did Trump do in his new home state?

With 85% reporting he’s on 93.8%, so a real nailbiter!

[Chris from Brum]

The Bernie Bros are not taking their hero's defeats well, with plenty of guff about "rigging" (how?), "voter suppression" (when BAME voters have been turning out in record numbers), the "corrupt DNC establishment" (up to a point, Lord Copper) and so on. Obviously there's no possibility that their man simply didn't have the numbers to win all by himself. 

In addition, Biden is apparently no better the Trump (really?) and they won't vote for him. Own worst enemies? You decide.

[nelson]

Mar 18, 2020 9:58:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The Bernie Bros are not taking their hero's defeats well, with plenty of guff about "rigging", "voter suppression", the "corrupt DNC establishment" and so on. In addition, Biden is apparently no better the Trump (really?) and they won't vote for him. Own worst enemies? You decide.

That's a stupid slur. It was already an incorrect stereotype in 2016 and with the much more diverse coalition Sanders has this time around it's even less appropriate. 

There has been a certain amount of mechanisms preventing young people from voting (too few polling stations in districts with a young population like college towns, closure and moving of polling stations, inflexible school and employer schedules. It all adds up. It's of course not the main reason Sanders lost, but it can't just be hand-waived away. The whole US electoral setup works to systemically keep turnout down for certain groups (young people/students, the poor, PoC) and Americans use the term voter suppression in a broader sense than in British English.

Keep in mind that a Biden presidency is not necessarily an advantage for the left, that depends how he'll govern, who he picks as his running mate and who gets into the cabinet (e.g. Anne Finucane from Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon are both rumoured to be on Biden's shortlist for Secretary of the Treasury, a Biden administration could be very Wall Street influenced). If Trump is reelected the Democrats are going to win the mid-terms and the establishment will have lost two winnable elections by selecting "safe" moderate candidates, which will make it harder to resist whoever becomes the progressive standard bearer in 2024. If Biden picks a middle aged "corporate Democrat" (esp. if it's someone that ticks of lot of identity political boxes like Kamala Harris) she'll be favoured to succeed him in 2024 and the left will be out in the dark, especially with the influx of wealthy suburbanites caused by Trump's takeover of the GOP. The Democratic Party is two parties in one, like a forced marriage of the Liberals and NDP in Canada, and you can't expect them to like the other side. A party system where a right wing populist but still plutocrat controlled GOP competes with a woke neoliberal Democratic Party controlled by Wall Street and Silicon Valley is a nightmare scenario for the left. 

Finally, there is no reason why this thread should be filled with "x minimal group I think is silly and/or dislike said sometime stupid on twitter". Twitter isn't real life and doesn't reflect the candidates supporters or any substantial voter groups. 

[mboy]

^ Ha ha, bit touchy today mate?

[Deleted]

Mar 18, 2020 10:35:36 GMT nelson said:

Mar 18, 2020 9:58:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The Bernie Bros are not taking their hero's defeats well, with plenty of guff about "rigging", "voter suppression", the "corrupt DNC establishment" and so on. In addition, Biden is apparently no better the Trump (really?) and they won't vote for him. Own worst enemies? You decide.

That's a stupid slur. It was already an incorrect stereotype in 2016 and with the much more diverse coalition Sanders has this time around it's even less appropriate. 

There has been a certain amount of mechanisms preventing young people from voting (too few polling stations in districts with a young population like college towns, closure and moving of polling stations, inflexible school and employer schedules. It all adds up. It's of course not the main reason Sanders lost, but it can't just be hand-waived away. The whole US electoral setup works to systemically keep turnout down for certain groups (young people/students, the poor, PoC) and Americans use the term voter suppression in a broader sense than in British English.

Keep in mind that a Biden presidency is not necessarily an advantage for the left, that depends how he'll govern, who he picks as his running mate and who gets into the cabinet (e.g. Anne Finucane from Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon are both rumoured to be on Biden's shortlist for Secretary of the Treasury, a Biden administration could be very Wall Street influenced). If Trump is reelected the Democrats are going to win the mid-terms and the establishment will have lost two winnable elections by selecting "safe" moderate candidates, which will make it harder to resist whoever becomes the progressive standard bearer in 2024. If Biden picks a middle aged "corporate Democrat" (esp. if it's someone that ticks of lot of identity political boxes like Kamala Harris) she'll be favoured to succeed him in 2024 and the left will be out in the dark, especially with the influx of wealthy suburbanites caused by Trump's takeover of the GOP. The Democratic Party is two parties in one, like a forced marriage of the Liberals and NDP in Canada, and you can't expect them to like the other side. A party system where a right wing populist but still plutocrat controlled GOP competes with a woke neoliberal Democratic Party controlled by Wall Street and Silicon Valley is a nightmare scenario for the left. 

Finally, there is no reason why this thread should be filled with "x minimal group I think is silly and/or dislike said sometime stupid on twitter". Twitter isn't real life and doesn't reflect the candidates supporters or any substantial voter groups. 

Biden will need to offer policies and/or a VP pick that excites Bernie supporters.

If Democrats put forward a similar candidate to 2016, they shouldn't be surprised if they get a similar result.

[timmullen1]

Mar 18, 2020 9:58:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The Bernie Bros are not taking their hero's defeats well, with plenty of guff about "rigging" (how?), "voter suppression" (when BAME voters have been turning out in record numbers), the "corrupt DNC establishment" (up to a point, Lord Copper) and so on. Obviously there's no possibility that their man simply didn't have the numbers to win all by himself. 

In addition, Biden is apparently no better the Trump (really?) and they won't vote for him. Own worst enemies? You decide.

It’s a Groundhog Day from 2016. Remember Susan Sarandon saying Hillary was more dangerous than Trump? The major difference this year is Sanders will more enthusiastically back, and likely campaign for Biden whenever he finally concedes as they actually like each other whereas he loathed Clinton on a personal level.

The Bernie Bros threatened not to vote for anyone else (or for Jill Stein) in 2016, but exit polling shows around 94-95% ended up voting for Clinton. I suspect it’ll be as high or higher this year as there won’t be the complacency that presumed Trump was unelectable.

Biden is also a wiser owl; his speech last week was full of praise for Sanders himself as an olive branch, and last night was a direct reaching out to Sanders’ young supporters. It might not be obviously successful on social media, but when did Twitter accurately predict an election?

[greenchristian]

Mar 18, 2020 11:22:46 GMT timmullen1 said:

Mar 18, 2020 9:58:54 GMT Chris from Brum said:

The Bernie Bros are not taking their hero's defeats well, with plenty of guff about "rigging" (how?), "voter suppression" (when BAME voters have been turning out in record numbers), the "corrupt DNC establishment" (up to a point, Lord Copper) and so on. Obviously there's no possibility that their man simply didn't have the numbers to win all by himself. 

In addition, Biden is apparently no better the Trump (really?) and they won't vote for him. Own worst enemies? You decide.

It’s a Groundhog Day from 2016. Remember Susan Sarandon saying Hillary was more dangerous than Trump? The major difference this year is Sanders will more enthusiastically back, and likely campaign for Biden whenever he finally concedes as they actually like each other whereas he loathed Clinton on a personal level.

Sanders did campaign for Clinton in 2016, though.

[jamie]

Mar 18, 2020 11:22:46 GMT timmullen1 said:

The Bernie Bros threatened not to vote for anyone else (or for Jill Stein) in 2016, but exit polling shows around 94-95% ended up voting for Clinton. I suspect it’ll be as high or higher this year as there won’t be the complacency that presumed Trump was unelectable.

The 2016 retention was, contrary to conventional wisdom, actually historically high! Could be even higher this year due to Bernie’s collapse in support among the DINOs. 

[timmullen1]

Mar 18, 2020 11:32:02 GMT greenchristian said:

Mar 18, 2020 11:22:46 GMT timmullen1 said:

It’s a Groundhog Day from 2016. Remember Susan Sarandon saying Hillary was more dangerous than Trump? The major difference this year is Sanders will more enthusiastically back, and likely campaign for Biden whenever he finally concedes as they actually like each other whereas he loathed Clinton on a personal level.

Sanders did campaign for Clinton in 2016, though.

There’s a consensus that it wasn’t exactly wholehearted - every speech had a whinge about the unfair nomination process - and, although the Sanders camp dispute this, Robbie Mook and other senior members of the Clinton campaign claim he only agreed to about two thirds of their requests, and insisted on cherry picking where he went.

[The Bishop]

Doesn't alter the fact that more of his people voted for HRC in 2016 than hers did for Obama in 2008.

Despite that, she lost and he won.

[Deleted]

If Biden loses, it will be because of Biden.

[timmullen1]

Mar 18, 2020 12:22:14 GMT The Bishop said:

Doesn't alter the fact that more of his people voted for HRC in 2016 than hers did for Obama in 2008.

Despite that, she lost and he won.

Yes, but it also assumes that the Democratic Vote is a homogeneous entity; if Hillary had limited the drop off in Obama’s support amongst African Americans by about a quarter she would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania, as turnout dropped in the predominantly black urban areas of Detroit and Philadelphia. However Biden is producing Obama-like numbers amongst that community.

Biden’s (well, the Democrats) support amongst suburban voters who voted Trump in 2016 but have been moving away ever since may more than compensate for a decline amongst young voters.

One thing not getting a lot of attention is Biden’s strength compared to Hillary in areas with large veteran communities; might be comparatively small but there are a lot of States where Trump has no room for error.

Stu Rothenberg (one of the few neutrals to forecast a Trump victory in 2016) has this take today on why Biden starts a slight favourite: www.rollcall.com/2020/03/18/presidential-race-moves-to-leans-democratic/

[nelson]

Sanders expected to drop out soon. He is "assessing" his campaign, his digital ads have been deactivated etc. 

EDIT: The assessment will take place in the next few weeks, so not soon. But who knows at this point. 

[curiousliberal]

Bill Weld has dropped out of the Republican race, leaving Rocky De La Fuente as the last "major" challenger to Donald Trump.

[mboy]

Someone's having a tough week...

[curiousliberal]

Mar 18, 2020 23:57:30 GMT mboy said:

Someone's having a tough week...

In fairness, the delegate lead doesn't seem *completely* insurmountable to me, but it's surely large enough for public pressure to start piling on. If Ohio had voted today, it would have been enough to practically eliminate him, but I reckon there's fair reason for Sanders to hold out (and Biden to take the challenge seriously) until Hawaii, Wyoming, Alaska and Wisconsin. I strongly suspect Biden will cement his victory there, but there's enough time for the state of the race to change again.