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Post by middleenglander on Jan 12, 2017 23:37:24 GMT
Sunderland, Sandhill - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 824 | 45.0% | +40.9% | +41.5% | +34.8% | +32.2% | +31.1% | Labour | 458 | 25.0% | -30.0% | -29.9% | -40.6% | -44.7% | -42.2% | UKIP | 343 | 18.7% | -7.2% | -7.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 184 | 10.0% | -2.4% | -5.7% | -14.2% | -7.4% | -8.9% | Green | 23 | 1.3% | -1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,832 |
| 82% | 47% | 81% | 70% | 76% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 35½% since 2016 and 2015, ~ 37¾% since 2014 and similar since 2012 Council now 66 Labour, 6 Conservative, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Three Rivers, Gade Valley - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 626 | 60.9% | -0.8% | +24.0% | +9.8% | +9.0% | Conservative | 196 | 19.1% | -6.3% | -22.9% | -8.8% | -7.9% | Labour | 119 | 11.6% | -1.4% | -9.6% | -9.5% | -9.5% | UKIP | 69 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 18 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,028 |
| 65% | 30% | 67% | 71% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~ 2¾% since 2016, ~ 23½% since 2015 and 9¼% / 8½% since 2014 Council now 20 Liberal Democrat, 16 Conservative, 3 Labour
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Post by mrhell on Jan 12, 2017 23:38:52 GMT
Sunderland was a strong Leave area so how are the Lib Dems, of all parties, winning a council seat there? With a massive swing to boot. Bonkers. Labour longterm complacency in the ward. |
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Jan 12, 2017 23:39:27 GMT
Lib Dems gain majority control of Three Rivers on the back of that.
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 12, 2017 23:44:01 GMT
That's it! I'm definitely predicting Lib Dem gains in the next two council by-elections, whatever the local circumstances.  I am happy to have a wager with you that whatever the local circumstances, the Lib Dems will not gain the next two council by-elections. Shall we say £1m ? No, but possibly 50p on which will see the higher swing to them?  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 12, 2017 23:45:55 GMT
Sunderland was a strong Leave area so how are the Lib Dems, of all parties, winning a council seat there? With a massive swing to boot. Bonkers. Because it isn't the same thing. Some people have got carried away and started defining an area's politics entirely by its referendum vote. I'm taking a wild guess and speculating that this issue didn't feature much in the Lib Dem campaign. Now safely out of government for the foreseeable future the LibDems appear to have regained their old ability to randomly win local by-elections all over the place if circumstances were right. This used to happen all the time up until 2010. And that in itself is a good reason for all of the people who are overanalysing local by-elections - not so much here but on e.g. politics twitter - to desist. |
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Post by Ben Walker on Jan 12, 2017 23:46:27 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 12, 2017 23:46:36 GMT
Sunderland was a strong Leave area so how are the Lib Dems, of all parties, winning a council seat there? With a massive swing to boot. Bonkers. Because the whole "we voted Leave so only a leave party can win anything ever forever" narrative is toss. 42.8% of voters in this election voted for Remain parties, only one of whom was a contender (sorry, Greens). The rest voted for the 3 Leave parties. Its a FPTP system. Do the maths. |
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Post by ideal4radio on Jan 12, 2017 23:47:00 GMT
It would seem that for the LDs at the moment 'The Fart is forgotten'? You must start to fancy your chances in Copeland on this showing. I wonder what is suddenly behind it? Fickle cattle the electorate. The idea that UKIP was going to run-rampant through Labour's northern heartlands was always fraught with difficulty.. Infighting, lack of funding and organisation on the ground together with the sense that it's " mission accomplished " for UKIP, so why bother voting for them. With Corbyn leading Labour and the Tories having their woes with the NHS & Brexit, we may just be seeing the return of the Liberal Democrats as the party of protest. Voting Conservative in large parts of the North is an anathma to many people, so the L/D's fill the gap. Despite this, I would wager that 35% of the Electorate could not tell you who their Leader is .... |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 12, 2017 23:47:51 GMT
I am happy to have a wager with you that whatever the local circumstances, the Lib Dems will not gain the next two council by-elections. Shall we say £1m ? No, but possibly 50p on which will see the higher swing to them? I expect it to be exactly the same in both - 0%. Please donate your 50 p to the Air Ambulance. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 12, 2017 23:49:42 GMT
No, but possibly 50p on which will see the higher swing to them? I expect it to be exactly the same in both - 0%. Please donate your 50 p to the Air Ambulance. A shrewd wager middleenglander . I will double your 50p |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 12, 2017 23:56:33 GMT
Frankly I don't care and I think Labour have a deal more to worry about than us. The public have not read our insider script. They just wanted shot and turned to the outfit working hardest and with the bigger profile. In Hartlepool it was us. Here it is you. Not a problem. Labour have more to worry about because they have more to lose. It is, I think, a problem for anyone who wants to be a UKIP councilor. How come the LDs were working hardest in a ward where we finished 4th last time and UKIP were contenders? But you have cogently made the case elsewhere that UKIP are not about winning council or even Westminster seats so I think you are right not to be too worried. You are playing a different game. But I think there may be demons in the wicket for you there. And currently we are doing pretty well at our game. As Sibboleth implies, our issue is whether we can take it from the FA Cup of by-elections to the league of General Elections. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 12, 2017 23:56:53 GMT
Sunderland was a strong Leave area so how are the Lib Dems, of all parties, winning a council seat there? With a massive swing to boot. Bonkers. Because the whole "we voted Leave so only a leave party can win anything ever forever" narrative is toss. 42.8% of voters in this election voted for Remain parties, only one of whom was a contender (sorry, Greens). The rest voted for the 3 Leave parties. Its a FPTP system. Do the maths. Not everything is about Brexit. It's a local election for goodness sake - I imagine very few people (with the exception of the UKIP voters anyway) saw themselves as voting for a 'Remain' party or a 'Leave' party |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 13, 2017 0:01:44 GMT
well that was better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
And whilst local by-elections are not always indicative of wider performance, I'd rather have the problem that two wins may not mean that much, than the alternative
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2017 0:03:33 GMT
?? This is the Labour (and UKIP) vote collapsing to the party of Remaining in the EU. The people of Sunderland showing decisively that they have changed their mind in light of the reality of Brexit.(Alternatively that the Lib Dems are, as ever, good at low turnout local elections) And I don't get why as a committed leaver you would like to see the invisible Labour opposition replaced by the Lib Dems who would use that position to stop Brexit, or at least prevent hard Brexit. No they haven't 57% voted for Leave parties (which includes Labour.) And lots stayed at home because its only a local council by-election. Plenty of the stay-at-homes would turn out if it was a referendum on going back in, don't worry about that. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 13, 2017 0:05:29 GMT
Well it's not irrelevant even if it obviously doesn't denote a massive surge of yellow across the board; i.e. if you're ever going to rebuild you have to be able to randomly win local polls out of sheer leaflet dropping absurdity again, which, right now, you are.
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2017 0:06:49 GMT
Frankly I don't care and I think Labour have a deal more to worry about than us. The public have not read our insider script. They just wanted shot and turned to the outfit working hardest and with the bigger profile. In Hartlepool it was us. Here it is you. Not a problem. Labour have more to worry about because they have more to lose. It is, I think, a problem for anyone who wants to be a UKIP councilor. How come the LDs were working hardest in a ward where we finished 4th last time and UKIP were contenders? But you have cogently made the case elsewhere that UKIP are not about winning council or even Westminster seats so I think you are right not to be too worried. You are playing a different game. But I think there may be demons in the wicket for you there. And currently we are doing pretty well at our game. As Sibboleth implies, our issue is whether we can take it from the FA Cup of by-elections to the league of General Elections. Yes to all of that. What would I have done there this evening? I would have suspected (as a local submitting to the deluge of LD attentions) that it might be damn close labour-LD result. If I knew and was friends with the UKIP chap I would probably have voted for him knowing we were nowhere. But if it looked like a real chance to thump Labour I might well have voted LD to achieve a something rather than a nothing. That is because I am about outcomes and not tribal. That is what the electorate did. It is probably not a ringing endorsement of your candidate, your policies, and certainly not of Remain (few will realise you are hot for Remain and we may have to make that the main feature of our knocking copy in future?). You were there. You were not Labour. that was enough. enjoy whilst it lasts. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2017 0:10:55 GMT
Not everything is about Brexit. It's a local election for goodness sake - I imagine very few people (with the exception of the UKIP voters anyway) saw themselves as voting for a 'Remain' party or a 'Leave' party Yes. And not even all of them. There are other reasons to be pissed off with the status quo. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 13, 2017 0:21:42 GMT
?? This is the Labour (and UKIP) vote collapsing to the party of Remaining in the EU. The people of Sunderland showing decisively that they have changed their mind in light of the reality of Brexit.(Alternatively that the Lib Dems are, as ever, good at low turnout local elections) And I don't get why as a committed leaver you would like to see the invisible Labour opposition replaced by the Lib Dems who would use that position to stop Brexit, or at least prevent hard Brexit. No they haven't 57% voted for Leave parties (which includes Labour.) And lots stayed at home because its only a local council by-election. Plenty of the stay-at-homes would turn out if it was a referendum on going back in, don't worry about that. Come on, this is silly. Unless the LibDems are now committed to reversing the referendum result? |
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Sharon
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by Sharon on Jan 13, 2017 0:25:22 GMT
Because the whole "we voted Leave so only a leave party can win anything ever forever" narrative is toss. 42.8% of voters in this election voted for Remain parties, only one of whom was a contender (sorry, Greens). The rest voted for the 3 Leave parties. Its a FPTP system. Do the maths. Not everything is about Brexit. It's a local election for goodness sake - I imagine very few people (with the exception of the UKIP voters anyway) saw themselves as voting for a 'Remain' party or a 'Leave' party I have to agree completely with this. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jan 13, 2017 0:38:43 GMT
Well I think a lot of us would like to persuade the electorate to reverse the result. But I don't mean to have ago at Labour's position on Brexit, merely to point out that this result does not imply that the voters of Sunderland have changed their minds over it. They can easily want Brexit but still vote Labour, they can vote LD on local issues for the local council but still want Brexit, they can passionately want Brexit but stay at home because they don't give a toss about a council by-election, and so on. But I also quarrel with the notion that opposing Brexit dooms the LDs in any area which voted Leave. There's a range of factors at play, including (but definitely not limited to) the one that being the only party to represent 48% can be better than to be one of three vying for 52%. |
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