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Post by greenhert on Dec 23, 2016 17:30:08 GMT
The seat was known as Whitehaven until 1983 when the boundary commission decided for some reason that they should use the names of local authorities whenever possible. So in 1983 a lot of seats had their names changed from the name of the main town in the constituency to the name of the district or borough. For example, in 1983 Beeston became Broxtowe, Carlton -> Gedling, Kidderminster -> Wyre Forest, Whitehaven -> Copeland, Accrington -> Hyndburn, Nelson & Colne -> Pendle, Ebbw Vale -> Islwyn Blaenau Gwent, Bedwellty -> Islwyn. It is not quite as simple as that for all the constituencies you describe.
The outer villages of Carlton helped form the new seat of Sherwood in 1983.
Pendle was not just the old Nelson & Colne constituency-it added the villages of Barnoldswick and Earlby, which were transferred from the Skipton constituency without good cause, since there was no good reason to move those villages out of Yorkshire.
Blaenau Gwent added in Brynmawr from Brecknockshire (and therefore the Brecon & Radnorshire constituency) and villages of the abolished Abertillery constituency, so the boundaries of Blaenau Gwent are not identical to the old Ebbw Vale. Islwyn added in part of the abolished Abertillery constituency as well, and small parts of Bedwelty were given to Caerphilly and Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 23, 2016 18:25:22 GMT
The shame... Caernarvon Boroughs was the seat Lloyd-George held for 55 years Well yes, but ... Caernarfon and Caernarvon Boroughs were very different seats. It's rather difficult to find decent maps outlining the boundaries of the really old parliamentary constituencies, but (and please do correct me if I'm wrong) weren't the boundaries of the old Caernarvon Boroughs constituency just a series of exclaves covering places such as Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno, Penmaenmawr & Llanfairfechan, and Caernarfon town itself? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 23, 2016 18:31:55 GMT
The seat was known as Whitehaven until 1983 when the boundary commission decided for some no good reason that they should use the names of local authorities whenever possible. So in 1983 a lot of seats had their names changed from the name of the main town in the constituency to the name of the district or borough. For example, in 1983 Beeston became Broxtowe, Carlton -> Gedling, Kidderminster -> Wyre Forest, Whitehaven -> Copeland, Accrington -> Hyndburn, Nelson & Colne -> Pendle, Ebbw Vale -> Islwyn Blaenau Gwent, Bedwellty -> Islwyn. FTFY. The Commission has proposed to correct 'Hyndburn' back to Accrington and I made a point of praising that in my submission for the North West. I proposed a Kidderminster CC that would be entirely coterminous with the district of Wyre Forest, which was probably the simplest seat in the whole of the West Midlands region... with the name being the only point of contention. The other examples you cite aren't as clear cut, as greenhert has explained. |
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Dec 23, 2016 18:45:20 GMT
Well yes, but ... Caernarfon and Caernarvon Boroughs were very different seats. It's rather difficult to find decent maps outlining the boundaries of the really old parliamentary constituencies, but (and please do correct me if I'm wrong) weren't the boundaries of the old Caernarvon Boroughs constituency just a series of exclaves covering places such as Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno, Penmaenmawr & Llanfairfechan, and Caernarfon town itself? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 23, 2016 18:56:58 GMT
Well yes, but ... Caernarfon and Caernarvon Boroughs were very different seats. It's rather difficult to find decent maps outlining the boundaries of the really old parliamentary constituencies, but (and please do correct me if I'm wrong) weren't the boundaries of the old Caernarvon Boroughs constituency just a series of exclaves covering places such as Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno, Penmaenmawr & Llanfairfechan, and Caernarfon town itself? You are correct. To be fair, it's less to do with boundary changes - more the near total collapse of Lib Dem support in Welsh-speaking areas where Plaid has emerged. The only exception being Ceredigion. And - pre-Lembit - they'd also held Plaid back in the Welsh-speaking parts of Montgomery. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 23, 2016 19:51:29 GMT
It's rather difficult to find decent maps outlining the boundaries of the really old parliamentary constituencies, but (and please do correct me if I'm wrong) weren't the boundaries of the old Caernarvon Boroughs constituency just a series of exclaves covering places such as Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno, Penmaenmawr & Llanfairfechan, and Caernarfon town itself? You are correct. To be fair, it's less to do with boundary changes - more the near total collapse of Lib Dem support in Welsh-speaking areas where Plaid has emerged. The only exception being Ceredigion. And - pre-Lembit - they'd also held Plaid back in the Welsh-speaking parts of Montgomery. Ah, Powys, I do believe it's the one authority area where Plaid Cymru has no presence, and either one or both its two parliamentary seats are where it rountinely loses deposits in parliamentary elections... |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 23, 2016 20:01:10 GMT
It's rather difficult to find decent maps outlining the boundaries of the really old parliamentary constituencies, but (and please do correct me if I'm wrong) weren't the boundaries of the old Caernarvon Boroughs constituency just a series of exclaves covering places such as Bangor, Conwy, Llandudno, Penmaenmawr & Llanfairfechan, and Caernarfon town itself? There are some seriously weird features to those boundaries! |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 23, 2016 20:13:52 GMT
There are some seriously weird features to those boundaries! Not really - when Wales got MPs in the reign of Henry VIII, Caernarvonshire was given one MP, and the boroughs of Caernarvon, Conway, Criccieth, Nevin, and Pwllheli were given one MP as well. That arrangement survived the Reform Act, and the 1884 Boundary Commission, and the 1917 Boundary Commission. |
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Copeland
Dec 23, 2016 20:18:48 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 23, 2016 20:18:48 GMT
Hardly surprising-Copeland has never registered a Liberal/Alliance/Lib Dem vote of greater than 15.9% in its long history and it regularly registers one of the lowest Lib Dem shares in England (although 2015 was an exception because there were so many other English seats where the Lib Dems performed even worse!) at general elections. Only two LD councillors have ever been elected throughout the entire history of the district of Copeland. 1979 election: Liberal share in Whitehaven at 5.9% was the 7th lowest in England and the 11th lowest in UK. Whitehaven 5.93 Gateshead West 5.89 Birmingham Yardley 5.87 Caernarvon 5.70 Birmingham Stechford 5.37 Glasgow Cathcart 5.35 Manchester Central 5.27 Coventry North East 4.86 Angus South 4.83 Dundee East 4.64 Western Isles 4.63 Birmingham Perry Barr 4.61 Merthyr Tydfil 4.06 The question though is why Copeland and indeed the other west Cumbrian seats are so poor for the Liberals and Lib Dems given that the rural areas that make up at least 50% of them are very similar to adjacent seats which have been good for them, and the industrial areas are not so different to the Lancashire industrial areas where the lib Dems did very well until recently... I mean obviously it has always been hard for them in Lab-Con marginals, but why so hard, with poor local government too, when you would think the rural areas and small towns would breed activists... |
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Post by timrollpickering on Dec 23, 2016 21:16:40 GMT
One thing that springs out about the old Whitehaven seat is the paucity of Liberals before October 1974. They lost the seat in January 1910, then seems to have stood down either as part of the ongoing Gladstone-MacDonald Pact or under local circumstances in December 1910. And then they only contested the seat twice in the next 64 years - in 1922 and 1929, losing their deposit on the latter occasion. And that was it for 45 years, not appearing even in the big candidate surges of 1950 or February 1974. That suggests something that's made it hard even to recruit members on the ground going back many decades.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 23, 2016 21:29:17 GMT
One thing that springs out about the old Whitehaven seat is the paucity of Liberals before October 1974. They lost the seat in January 1910, then seems to have stood down either as part of the ongoing Gladstone-MacDonald Pact or under local circumstances in December 1910. And then they only contested the seat twice in the next 64 years - in 1922 and 1929, losing their deposit on the latter occasion. And that was it for 45 years, not appearing even in the big candidate surges of 1950 or February 1974. That suggests something that's made it hard even to recruit members on the ground going back many decades. The papers at the time reported an agreement that the "Radicals" stood down in Whitehaven for Labour to have a free run against the Tory, and Labour did the same in Cockermouth (which the Liberals won). |
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neilm
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Copeland
Dec 23, 2016 23:08:26 GMT
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Post by neilm on Dec 23, 2016 23:08:26 GMT
One thing that springs out about the old Whitehaven seat is the paucity of Liberals before October 1974. They lost the seat in January 1910, then seems to have stood down either as part of the ongoing Gladstone-MacDonald Pact or under local circumstances in December 1910. And then they only contested the seat twice in the next 64 years - in 1922 and 1929, losing their deposit on the latter occasion. And that was it for 45 years, not appearing even in the big candidate surges of 1950 or February 1974. That suggests something that's made it hard even to recruit members on the ground going back many decades. The papers at the time reported an agreement that the "Radicals" stood down in Whitehaven for Labour to have a free run against the Tory, and Labour did the same in Cockermouth (which the Liberals won). No doubt the Progressive Alliance will be using this very recent example as persuasive evidence... |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 24, 2016 19:24:48 GMT
Interesting post on PoliticalBetting, (I hope the poster doesn't mind me copying it onto here):
"Outside the Town of Whitehaven this constituency has never been as completely hostile to the Tory cause as some imagine. During my four years on Cumbria, beginning in 2009 there were 5 Tory county councillors out of ?12.
I think the 2009 County Election results - search the county website will offer some insight for potential betters as the context was not dissimilar to now; Tories so so, Labour toxic. At least one of those elected in 2009 NEVER expected to be elected and was IMHO one of the best councillors ever elected to Cumbria.
The local Tory Party knew about the impending resignaton for at least three weeks before it happened. Even I knew two days before - I didn't realise it hadn't been announced. There are as I understand it three potential local candidates and the selection is well under way. Certainly two of them are on first name terms with the PM.
Contrary to some comments about TM's invisibility as Home Secretary she was a regular campaigner at every council election and Police Commissioner election in the county. My point with this is she is well known in Cumbria Cons circles and knows the people involved.
A few threads back someone suggested Labour might select Tim Knowles as he fronted the piece for Labour on Border Lookaround. I would be surprised if he were selected and assume he is chairman of the CLP or some such. He makes Jamie Reed look like a Bennite. But he was and I assume still is a very effective county councillor and was a key member of the 2009 to 2013 Con/Lab coalition on CCC. But, he doesn't have the gobshite charisma of say Tim Farron to fight a by-election.
The Lib Dems are a total irrelevance in Copeland - they did have a councillor for Keswick but she resigned mid term. I don't imagine Tim will be spending any more time in this constituency than he does in the House of Commons. Door knocking for the Cumbria county elections will be his sole pre-occupation for the first five months of 2017. He has a lot to lose.
But there must be a LD candidate as Tim has to live down his once regular proclamations that he was to the left of Labour. Not to stand would be a gift for us Tories in those much more important county elections.
As has been pointed out Ed Balls has no connections to north and west Cumbria - EXCEPT that is where his wife hails from. So, whilst his candidacy is very unlikely MPs have had more tenuous connections with their constituency.
As a Cumbrian Tory of course I hope and expect we will win this contest convincingly. The biggest danger would be the selection of a non-local candidate and as far as I can see enough has been done already to prevent this.
There is many a slip etc, but as well as the who wins bet punters might find better value on a longer odds bet of the best Con gain in any by-election since the war.
Kevin Lancaster"
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 24, 2016 19:44:05 GMT
Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different...
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 24, 2016 20:04:03 GMT
Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different... I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe". And I suspect Crewe forms a higher proportion of C&N than Whitehaven does of Copeland. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 24, 2016 20:10:21 GMT
What? Obviously it's also absurd to ignore the parts of a constituency that are not in its largest settlement.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 24, 2016 20:13:56 GMT
Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different... I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe". And I suspect Crewe forms a higher proportion of C&N than Whitehaven does of Copeland. It might well do but different seats have different dynamics, even if they are superficially similar.(witness Labour holding Grimsby and losing Ashfield on the same day back in 1977) And despite Corbyn's lack of appeal to the electorate, it's nothing like as bad as being at the fag end of a government. None of this is to say that the seat isn't vulnerable in a by-election because with a majority of that size only a fool would say otherwise. |
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Post by marksenior on Dec 24, 2016 21:10:54 GMT
Interesting post on PoliticalBetting, (I hope the poster doesn't mind me copying it onto here): "Outside the Town of Whitehaven this constituency has never been as completely hostile to the Tory cause as some imagine. During my four years on Cumbria, beginning in 2009 there were 5 Tory county councillors out of ?12. I think the 2009 County Election results - search the county website will offer some insight for potential betters as the context was not dissimilar to now; Tories so so, Labour toxic. At least one of those elected in 2009 NEVER expected to be elected and was IMHO one of the best councillors ever elected to Cumbria. The local Tory Party knew about the impending resignaton for at least three weeks before it happened. Even I knew two days before - I didn't realise it hadn't been announced. There are as I understand it three potential local candidates and the selection is well under way. Certainly two of them are on first name terms with the PM. Contrary to some comments about TM's invisibility as Home Secretary she was a regular campaigner at every council election and Police Commissioner election in the county. My point with this is she is well known in Cumbria Cons circles and knows the people involved. A few threads back someone suggested Labour might select Tim Knowles as he fronted the piece for Labour on Border Lookaround. I would be surprised if he were selected and assume he is chairman of the CLP or some such. He makes Jamie Reed look like a Bennite. But he was and I assume still is a very effective county councillor and was a key member of the 2009 to 2013 Con/Lab coalition on CCC. But, he doesn't have the gobshite charisma of say Tim Farron to fight a by-election. The Lib Dems are a total irrelevance in Copeland - they did have a councillor for Keswick but she resigned mid term. I don't imagine Tim will be spending any more time in this constituency than he does in the House of Commons. Door knocking for the Cumbria county elections will be his sole pre-occupation for the first five months of 2017. He has a lot to lose. But there must be a LD candidate as Tim has to live down his once regular proclamations that he was to the left of Labour. Not to stand would be a gift for us Tories in those much more important county elections. As has been pointed out Ed Balls has no connections to north and west Cumbria - EXCEPT that is where his wife hails from. So, whilst his candidacy is very unlikely MPs have had more tenuous connections with their constituency. As a Cumbrian Tory of course I hope and expect we will win this contest convincingly. The biggest danger would be the selection of a non-local candidate and as far as I can see enough has been done already to prevent this. There is many a slip etc, but as well as the who wins bet punters might find better value on a longer odds bet of the best Con gain in any by-election since the war. Kevin Lancaster" Kevin Lancaster councillor in Sedbergh South Lakeland , clearly popular locally but not quite as popular as his oft while Lib Dem opponent Nick Cotton . |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 25, 2016 0:06:53 GMT
Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different... I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe". To state the bloody obvious, complacency is a very bad place to be in politics... Also, what is the strength of Labour in Crewe these days? |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 25, 2016 0:18:21 GMT
Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different... I remember at the time of the Corby by-election there was an awful lot of nonsense wrote about the constituency as many treated it as being the town of Corby and little else. There are of course many examples of constituencies made up of towns that are strong or marginal for Labour while also containing more rural areas that are strong for the Conservatives. |
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