Copeland

[Deleted]

There are few spectacles more depressing than watching national newspaper reporters trying to understand electoral geography. This is why we were treated to the spectacle of news stories and op-eds claiming that west Lincs was some kind of "left behind" area because they couldn't be bothered to go further than Sleaford town centre.

[maxque]

Dec 25, 2016 9:09:42 GMT @strinity said:

There are few spectacles more depressing than watching national newspaper reporters trying to understand electoral geography. This is why we were treated to the spectacle of news stories and op-eds claiming that west Lincs was some kind of "left behind" area because they couldn't be bothered to go further than Sleaford town centre.

To be fair, some of them just cannot research, as they also have to write 20 clickbait articles and floss in addition to that news article.

[andrewteale]

2015 district council elections in the Copeland constituency:



Merry Christmas everyone.

[carlton43]

The useful Teale map suggests this should in all normal events be a Labour hold. The position in the electoral cycle suggests it should be an easy Labour hold. The recent English local by-elections suggest in should be a narrow Labour hold. The LD effect is likely to be fairly minor. The UKIP effect could be anything from damp squib neutral to conclusive help to either side? Then we have relative state of the ground war which is a reflection of morale in the two local parties, the regional party strength, and the national organizational powers.

For want of certain information I rate this from my gut as very close indeed with Labour scraping home.

[A Brown]

Yes I reckon a Labour hold by 2K with no real % swing between and Lab and Con

[La Fontaine]

I agree. Two forces cancelling out: mid-term unpopularity versus the Corbyn effect. Maybe a Con gain in a general election, but then there may be boundary changes.

[maxque]

Dec 25, 2016 11:49:39 GMT La Fontaine said:

I agree. Two forces cancelling out: mid-term unpopularity versus the Corbyn effect. Maybe a Con gain in a general election, but then there may be boundary changes.

Proposal is to create a Workington and Whitehaven constituency, with most rural areas of the current seats being shuffled out (to Barrow and to Penrith). Such a seat would probably be safe Labour.

[Deleted]

Proposed seat

[Deleted]

Copeland council suggests to the Boundary Commission that the proposed seat be renamed to "West Cumbria" (as a very similar seat was at the zombie review) or "Whitehaven and Workington"

[tonygreaves]

Pendle was not just the old Nelson & Colne constituency-it added the villages of Barnoldswick and Earlby, which were transferred from the Skipton constituency without good cause, since there was no good reason to move those villages out of Yorkshire.

Just to put one or two things right...Barnoldswick and Earby [sic] are both small towns, not villages (former Urban Districts and indeed now both have Town Councils).

They were transferred from the Skipton constituency because they were already part of Pendle BC and Lancashire CC - that happened in 1974.

The new constituency included a lot more than just Nelson and Colne, and indeed was and is coterminous with Pendle BC so Pendle was the obvious name. (Current boundary proposals tear the constituency apart in a ludicrous manner!)

[Deleted]

Dec 25, 2016 17:08:54 GMT tonygreaves said:

Pendle was not just the old Nelson & Colne constituency-it added the villages of Barnoldswick and Earlby, which were transferred from the Skipton constituency without good cause, since there was no good reason to move those villages out of Yorkshire.

Just to put one or two things right...Barnoldswick and Earby [sic] are both small towns, not villages (former Urban Districts and indeed now both have Town Councils).

They were transferred from the Skipton constituency because they were already part of Pendle BC and Lancashire CC - that happened in 1974.

The new constituency included a lot more than just Nelson and Colne, and indeed was and is coterminous with Pendle BC so Pendle was the obvious name. (Current boundary proposals tear the constituency apart in a ludicrous manner!)

[myth11]

It may be the drink but labour must chose wisely plus fight hard here as i am guessing there are around 8000 leave 2015 labour voters who have had a lot of flank chucked there way by there "own side" and a lot may decide its no longer worth voting full stop as a lot are labour or nothing voters.

[john07]

Dec 24, 2016 20:04:03 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Dec 24, 2016 19:44:05 GMT Sibboleth said:

Yes, I suppose if you ignore the largest settlement in many constituencies the political balance within immediately looks different...

I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe".

And I suspect Crewe forms a higher proportion of C&N than Whitehaven does of Copeland.

Crewe was never perceived as being safe for Labour. I recall discussions in the 1970s in the Regional Labour Prty where the Crewe Labour Party were desperate for Labour to back a boundary change that would put Middlewich into the Crewe Constituency. This was because it was seen as being less negative for Labour than other areas that might have been included.

Crewe only remained Labour for as long as it did because of the personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody. It would be silly to try and draw further inferences from that. Anyone who thinks that Copeland has remained Labour because of the personal vote for Jamie Reed needs some help!

[andrewteale]

2013 county council elections in the Copeland constituency:



This took a long time to do because the ward and division boundaries in Whitehaven don't match up at all (Harbour ward is split between four different divisions)

[gwynthegriff]

Dec 26, 2016 2:39:02 GMT john07 said:

Dec 24, 2016 20:04:03 GMT gwynthegriff said:

I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe".

And I suspect Crewe forms a higher proportion of C&N than Whitehaven does of Copeland.

Crewe was never perceived as being safe for Labour. I recall discussions in the 1970s in the Regional Labour Prty where the Crewe Labour Party were desperate for Labour to back a boundary change that would put Middlewich into the Crewe Constituency. This was because it was seen as being less negative for Labour than other areas that might have been included.

Crewe only remained Labour for as long as it did because of the personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody. It would be silly to try and draw further inferences from that. Anyone who thinks that Copeland has remained Labour because of the personal vote for Jamie Reed needs some help!

I didn't say that C&N (not C) was safe Labour. I said that various media types expressed astonishment at the thought of it being lost. (I recall comments along the lines of "If Labour can lose in places like Crewe".)

I am fairly familiar with the electoral history of the area ...

[The day after the 1992 GE I was on a planning site visit. The Labour Chairman - with whom I had a ... prickly ... relationship - walked up to me, shook my hand, and described me as "the man who saved the seat for Gwyneth".* His theory was that I had taken a significant number of Tory votes from people who preferred me to the Conservative candidate who was a controversial figure. I believe that several Conservative councillors actually voted Lib Dem in that GE.]


* Incidentally, I don't consider his view to be correct.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Dec 25, 2016 15:26:54 GMT doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ said:

Copeland council suggests to the Boundary Commission that the proposed seat be renamed to "West Cumbria" (as a very similar seat was at the zombie review) or "Whitehaven and Workington"

How about Jam-Eating Central?

[tonygreaves]

The map of the proposed Pendle split looks okay on a map, though as often the case it is less okay on the ground. The really ludicrous bit though is the new proposed constituency of Clitheroe and Colne.

[timmullen1]

Dec 26, 2016 2:39:02 GMT john07 said:

Dec 24, 2016 20:04:03 GMT gwynthegriff said:

I would remind the Hon Member that before the 2008 by-election in Crewe & Nantwich several media types made fools of themselves by claiming that Labour couldn't lose "a seat like Crewe".

And I suspect Crewe forms a higher proportion of C&N than Whitehaven does of Copeland.

Crewe was never perceived as being safe for Labour. I recall discussions in the 1970s in the Regional Labour Prty where the Crewe Labour Party were desperate for Labour to back a boundary change that would put Middlewich into the Crewe Constituency. This was because it was seen as being less negative for Labour than other areas that might have been included.

Crewe only remained Labour for as long as it did because of the personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody. It would be silly to try and draw further inferences from that. Anyone who thinks that Copeland has remained Labour because of the personal vote for Jamie Reed needs some help!

Gwyneth herself always said that her seat would remain Labour as long as Crewe outvoted the Nantwich part, but a decline in the town's population as train building largely ceased as Bombardier regularly downsized the BREL railway yards, and a large growth of the South Cheshire commuter belt around Nantwich and Audlem has altered the dynamics. The by-election also wasn't Labour's finest hour as Gwyneth's daughter was hopeless on the campaign trail, and being an AM in Cardiff Bay could never shake the carpetbagger tag, especially as the Timpson family are well known, and fairly well liked local employers.

[carlton43]

Dec 29, 2016 13:42:14 GMT timmullen1 said:

Dec 26, 2016 2:39:02 GMT john07 said:

Crewe was never perceived as being safe for Labour. I recall discussions in the 1970s in the Regional Labour Prty where the Crewe Labour Party were desperate for Labour to back a boundary change that would put Middlewich into the Crewe Constituency. This was because it was seen as being less negative for Labour than other areas that might have been included.

Crewe only remained Labour for as long as it did because of the personal vote for Gwyneth Dunwoody. It would be silly to try and draw further inferences from that. Anyone who thinks that Copeland has remained Labour because of the personal vote for Jamie Reed needs some help!

Gwyneth herself always said that her seat would remain Labour as long as Crewe outvoted the Nantwich part, but a decline in the town's population as train building largely ceased as Bombardier regularly downsized the BREL railway yards, and a large growth of the South Cheshire commuter belt around Nantwich and Audlem has altered the dynamics. The by-election also wasn't Labour's finest hour as Gwyneth's daughter was hopeless on the campaign trail, and being an AM in Cardiff Bay could never shake the carpetbagger tag, especially as the Timpson family are well known, and fairly well liked local employers.

Interesting background comment Tim. On the basis of that why do you think there was a significant swing back to Labour in 2015? One would have expected a further trend towards the Conservatives because of what you report about the Nantwich-Audlem area.

[The Bishop]

Dec 29, 2016 13:53:12 GMT carlton43 said:

Dec 29, 2016 13:42:14 GMT timmullen1 said:

Gwyneth herself always said that her seat would remain Labour as long as Crewe outvoted the Nantwich part, but a decline in the town's population as train building largely ceased as Bombardier regularly downsized the BREL railway yards, and a large growth of the South Cheshire commuter belt around Nantwich and Audlem has altered the dynamics. The by-election also wasn't Labour's finest hour as Gwyneth's daughter was hopeless on the campaign trail, and being an AM in Cardiff Bay could never shake the carpetbagger tag, especially as the Timpson family are well known, and fairly well liked local employers.

Interesting background comment Tim. On the basis of that why do you think there was a significant swing back to Labour in 2015? One would have expected a further trend towards the Conservatives because of what you report about the Nantwich-Audlem area.

That was "by-election unwind", a long standing and well observed phenonemon. It is likely that C&N is still moving incrementally in the Tories favour longer term.