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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 23, 2017 19:16:52 GMT
If Political Betting told me it was raining, I'd go outside and check for myself. Ironic on a day like this.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Feb 23, 2017 19:47:45 GMT
Apparently, Labour just don't have the people and are very disheartened. My source is usually reliable but obviously I take it with a pinch of salt.
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Post by justin124 on Feb 23, 2017 20:00:32 GMT
I am surprised that Labour lack workers on the ground there given the teams they have had available for canvassing.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Copeland
Feb 23, 2017 20:16:14 GMT
via mobile
Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 20:16:14 GMT
Apparently, Labour just don't have the people and are very disheartened. My source is usually reliable but obviously I take it with a pinch of salt. I remember Labour activists gloating when the polls closed in Uxbridge. Governments and byelections. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 23, 2017 20:19:49 GMT
Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise. You simply get someone to do it who can't help otherwise - great job for the mobility impaired members. My experience is that this is nonsense. If you're intending to keep the sheets up to date, so you know who you don't need to knock up and which areas aren't turning out at the rates they ought to, you need to input the data quickly. This is particularly crucial when the post-work rush is on - if you don't have the 7pm telling returns in by 7:30pm at the latest, then by the time you're knocking on the doors of the outstanding promises it'll be getting dark, and the main reason to keep knocking on their doors then isn't to get them to the polls, it's to get your own back on the lazy lying bastards. In Cambridge we tried putting elderly and less mobile members in charge of running the polling day app. It did not work well. You need somebody who can input data extremely quickly, who knows how to prioritise amongst a dozen incoming bits of data and who will understand the lay of the land before they've finished updating the data. Polling day software (or WARP sheets - manual input can be quicker in rush periods and you don't have to worry about the printer breaking) can be extremely powerful in the right hands. But you need to put a key activist in charge of it if you're going to use it effectively. (Though all this assumes you'll be knocking up most areas three times, and some four or five times. If there are parts of the ward you won't even knock twice, anybody can run the polling app. But if that's the case, the benefit of telling and polling day apps is minimal at best.) |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Copeland
Feb 23, 2017 20:30:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 20:30:41 GMT
You simply get someone to do it who can't help otherwise - great job for the mobility impaired members. My experience is that this is nonsense. If you're intending to keep the sheets up to date, so you know who you don't need to knock up and which areas aren't turning out at the rates they ought to, you need to input the data quickly. This is particularly crucial when the post-work rush is on - if you don't have the 7pm telling returns in by 7:30pm at the latest, then by the time you're knocking on the doors of the outstanding promises it'll be getting dark, and the main reason to keep knocking on their doors then isn't to get them to the polls, it's to get your own back on the lazy lying bastards. In Cambridge we tried putting elderly and less mobile members in charge of running the polling day app. It did not work well. You need somebody who can input data extremely quickly, who knows how to prioritise amongst a dozen incoming bits of data and who will understand the lay of the land before they've finished updating the data. Polling day software (or WARP sheets - manual input can be quicker in rush periods and you don't have to worry about the printer breaking) can be extremely powerful in the right hands. But you need to put a key activist in charge of it if you're going to use it effectively. (Though all this assumes you'll be knocking up most areas three times, and some four or five times. If there are parts of the ward you won't even knock twice, anybody can run the polling app. But if that's the case, the benefit of telling and polling day apps is minimal at best.) True, you wouldn't need telling if you were only knocking up once or twice, but presumably in Copeland they would be having three or more rounds as it's a close fight and a potential vote of confidence in the leader. However, this is based on one report at 9 AM so I'm seeing far too much in this. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 23, 2017 20:34:16 GMT
It's also the case that whilst getting tellers isn't hard, it can take a lot of work to have a full set of tellers. It's often worth leaving slots blank in low-priority areas at times when you don't expect much of your vote to turn out, because that activist can be put to better work elsewhere. Rural areas in mid-morning probably fall into this category.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,902
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 23, 2017 21:28:05 GMT
Entirely false rumours are regularly put on twitter on polling day and early on election nights. I presume it is considered amusing. The second half was a bit redundant. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 21:39:13 GMT
It's also the case that whilst getting tellers isn't hard, it can take a lot of work to have a full set of tellers. It's often worth leaving slots blank in low-priority areas at times when you don't expect much of your vote to turn out, because that activist can be put to better work elsewhere. Rural areas in mid-morning probably fall into this category. True enough, and by nature they're not the most flexible of activists, so you often have a limited set of polling stations that they can go to. |
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Post by An Sionnach Flannbhuí on Feb 23, 2017 21:51:29 GMT
In a general election, if you had only one man standing in the room wanting something to do, you would send him to knock up rather than tell, surely? Telling just tells you who's voted. Knocking up actually gets people out of the house and down to vote. Surely (2) is better than (1)?
But how it is in a concentrated by-election like this, probably there is an ("indulgence"? Is that the collective noun?) of party hacks and ex-candidates looking to be seen helping? Labour must have the advantage slap bang between Manchester and Newcastle; Labour are thick on the ground, Tories thin.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Feb 23, 2017 22:06:48 GMT
In a general election, if you had only one man standing in the room wanting something to do, you would send him to knock up rather than tell, surely? Telling just tells you who's voted. Knocking up actually gets people out of the house and down to vote. Surely (2) is better than (1)? But how it is in a concentrated by-election like this, probably there is an ("indulgence"? Is that the collective noun?) of party hacks and ex-candidates looking to be seen helping? Labour must have the advantage slap bang between Manchester and Newcastle; Labour are thick on the ground, Tories thin. Well, I think the plan is to do the telling during the day and the knocking up after people are home from work. You need to know hasn't voted before you knock people up. Unless you don't have any real number of pledges, then it is probably a waste of time anyway. I do rather like the idea of the notional single party worker roaming the streets randomly knocking on doors to ask if people have voted yet, without at any time thinking that the whole bloody thing might be pointless. When I was at university there was a bloke who was a member of the Socialist Party of Great Britain; I think its the kind of thing he would have done. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 22:22:47 GMT
ITV reporting that the Tories are confident of gaining Copeland.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,716
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Post by mboy on Feb 23, 2017 22:22:51 GMT
Vote-2012 says 44% Tory vs 56% Labour victory. Close!
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Post by gwynthegriff on Feb 23, 2017 22:24:32 GMT
You simply get someone to do it who can't help otherwise - great job for the mobility impaired members. My experience is that this is nonsense. In Cambridge we tried putting elderly and less mobile members in charge of running the polling day app. It did not work well. You need somebody who can input data extremely quickly, who knows how to prioritise amongst a dozen incoming bits of data and who will understand the lay of the land before they've finished updating the data. Senior Labour figure in ageism and abilityism shock! |
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 23, 2017 22:31:56 GMT
You simply get someone to do it who can't help otherwise - great job for the mobility impaired members. My experience is that this is nonsense. If you're intending to keep the sheets up to date, so you know who you don't need to knock up and which areas aren't turning out at the rates they ought to, you need to input the data quickly. This is particularly crucial when the post-work rush is on - if you don't have the 7pm telling returns in by 7:30pm at the latest, then by the time you're knocking on the doors of the outstanding promises it'll be getting dark, and the main reason to keep knocking on their doors then isn't to get them to the polls, it's to get your own back on the lazy lying bastards. In Cambridge we tried putting elderly and less mobile members in charge of running the polling day app. It did not work well. You need somebody who can input data extremely quickly, who knows how to prioritise amongst a dozen incoming bits of data and who will understand the lay of the land before they've finished updating the data. Polling day software (or WARP sheets - manual input can be quicker in rush periods and you don't have to worry about the printer breaking) can be extremely powerful in the right hands. But you need to put a key activist in charge of it if you're going to use it effectively. (Though all this assumes you'll be knocking up most areas three times, and some four or five times. If there are parts of the ward you won't even knock twice, anybody can run the polling app. But if that's the case, the benefit of telling and polling day apps is minimal at best.) Agreed. My age group are fine for the three weeks up to Polling Day. Then they are best deployed telling, advising on who is absent/dead/hospitalized/demented and brewing tea and making sandwiches. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Feb 23, 2017 22:35:18 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 22:36:31 GMT
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,777
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Post by right on Feb 23, 2017 22:40:23 GMT
Guardian quoting blog from Corbyn (on both elections) saying "Whatever the result..."
Expectations management genius.
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Post by mrpastelito on Feb 23, 2017 22:43:19 GMT
Guardian quoting blog from Corbyn (on both elections) saying "Whatever the result..." Expectations management genius. Well that's at least something the Labour party under Corbyn is good at, if not much else. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Feb 23, 2017 22:56:55 GMT
Also the admin involved in checking numbers, and crossing them off knocking-up sheets is not really worth it - might as well knock up every Labour promise. We in the Conservative Party have lots of people who are keen to help but are too old to knock up. If lots of people in the constituency are too old to be knocked up, then that's bad news for Labour since they won't be needing a maternity unit anytime soon. |
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The second half was a bit redundant.
