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Post by greenhert on Dec 22, 2016 20:02:25 GMT
Copeland registered the lowest Alliance share of the vote in England in 1987 with 9.1%, and the 10th lowest in the UK: Copeland: 9.1% Blaenau Gwent: 8.9% Rhondda: 8.2% Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: 8.1% Motherwell North: 8.0% Glasgow Springburn: 7.9% Angus East: 7.8% Glasgow Provan: 7.2% Ynys Mon: 6.7% Dundee East: 4.6% Hardly surprising-Copeland has never registered a Liberal/Alliance/Lib Dem vote of greater than 15.9% in its long history and it regularly registers one of the lowest Lib Dem shares in England (although 2015 was an exception because there were so many other English seats where the Lib Dems performed even worse!) at general elections. Only two LD councillors have ever been elected throughout the entire history of the district of Copeland. |
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 22, 2016 20:06:18 GMT
Labour have held this seat as has been indicated since 1935, but rarely with a great degree of comfort. The popularity of Jack Cunningham was certainly a factor in maintaining this throughout the 1980s. The choice of candidate is crucial in current circumstances for this to continue - if Labour gets this right I cannot see us losing the seat. Get it wrong and I would see at least an even chance of a Tory gain. Echoes there of Crewe and Nantwich and Gwyneth Dunwoody (Labour "gain" in 1983). And the Labour campaign there during the 2008 by-election was utterly dreadful if you ask me, it was almost as if they were begging to lose that seat... |
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Post by AdminSTB on Dec 22, 2016 20:10:06 GMT
Echoes there of Crewe and Nantwich and Gwyneth Dunwoody (Labour "gain" in 1983). And the Labour campaign there during the 2008 by-election was utterly dreadful if you ask me, it was almost as if they were begging to lose that seat... Labour would have struggled even with a good campaign in the circumstances of mid 2008. |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 22, 2016 20:47:37 GMT
This is one of the only forums I know which can go from Jamie Reed to Alfred Jodl in the one topic in 24 hours via Strictly. Impressive. It's the main reason we all stay here  That and the free beer. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 22, 2016 20:48:45 GMT
This is one of the only forums I know which can go from Jamie Reed to Alfred Jodl in the one topic in 24 hours via Strictly. Impressive. The Nazis were unlucky to pre-date reality TV. A good PR would have got Jodl onto Strictly, where he would win the public over with his loveable goosestepping in the tango. Von Ribentropp would have been a wow on Big Brother, using his quiet charm to smooth over arguments between the inmates. If only Goering could avoid the death sentence he would have been fascinating on the bushtucker challenge. They could all have been national treasures by 1955. |
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Post by justin124 on Dec 22, 2016 21:02:43 GMT
A senior Tory has stated there is a 60% chance of the Boundary changes NOT happening. There are known to be Tory rebels on this issue - as there were in the last Parliament - and with the Government's majority down to 10 very few are needed to scupper them. Strong rumours that we will see a by-election in Thanet South which the Tories would be likely to lose so eroding their majority further to 8. By the time a vote is due in Autumn 2018 we could be looking at a majority of 6. What makes you so confident? And Charles Walker and Philip Davies are near-certain rebels on this, and there are almost certainly half a dozen lower profile rebels. I suspect the Government's bacon will be saved by the utter disorganization of the Labour Party though. Peter Bone and another Tory voted in favour of the Private Member's Bill a few weeks back which sought to keep the number of MPs at 650. As for Labour being disorganized, we are talking here about Autumn 2018 . With such a key vote I would expect all Labour MPs to be on board. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944 
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Post by johnr on Dec 22, 2016 21:28:29 GMT
Only if the Boundary changes are approved! They will be approved. Steve Rotherham will cause a by-election there when he wins the Liverpool mayoralty. |
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 1,944
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Post by johnr on Dec 22, 2016 21:30:21 GMT
This is one of the only forums I know which can go from Jamie Reed to Alfred Jodl in the one topic in 24 hours via Strictly. Impressive. The Nazis were unlucky to pre-date reality TV. A good PR would have got Jodl onto Strictly, where he would win the public over with his loveable goosestepping in the tango. Von Ribentropp would have been a wow on Big Brother, using his quiet charm to smooth over arguments between the inmates. If only Goering could avoid the death sentence he would have been fascinating on the bushtucker challenge. They could all have been national treasures by 1955. They would also have had plenty of practice in the Argentine Tango..... |
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Dec 22, 2016 21:40:14 GMT
Maybe there could be a compromise with a boundary review going ahead but keeping 650 MPs. Would there be time before 2020?
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 22, 2016 21:47:16 GMT
And the Labour campaign there during the 2008 by-election was utterly dreadful if you ask me, it was almost as if they were begging to lose that seat... Labour would have struggled even with a good campaign in the circumstances of mid 2008. Indeed. I found canvassing difficult because of the sheer vitriol directed at Gordon Brown. It was extraordinary. |
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Post by justin124 on Dec 22, 2016 21:55:51 GMT
Maybe there could be a compromise with a boundary review going ahead but keeping 650 MPs. Would there be time before 2020? There would be time if the reduction in MPs were to be abandoned now. However, it will require legislation - and by Autumn 2018 it would be too late to carry out another review. By carrying on with the current proposals the Government seriously risks being stuck with the 2015 boundaries in 2020. |
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,839
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Post by myth11 on Dec 22, 2016 21:59:13 GMT
Just noticed the 2015 locals results for this seat
con 15161
lab 14887
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,687
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Post by mboy on Dec 22, 2016 22:15:20 GMT
It's the main reason we all stay here That and the free beer. There's free beer?   |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2016 23:19:30 GMT
There's free beer? Yep,apparently you have to upgrade to premium for the good stuff |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Dec 23, 2016 0:49:41 GMT
This is one of the only forums I know which can go from Jamie Reed to Alfred Jodl in the one topic in 24 hours via Strictly. Impressive. The Nazis were unlucky to pre-date reality TV. A good PR would have got Jodl onto Strictly, where he would win the public over with his loveable goosestepping in the tango. Von Ribentropp would have been a wow on Big Brother, using his quiet charm to smooth over arguments between the inmates. If only Goering could avoid the death sentence he would have been fascinating on the bushtucker challenge. They could all have been national treasures by 1955. It's a Bush Tucker Trial. Now what has poor Jodl done to deserve being likened to Ed Balls?  |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,878
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 23, 2016 1:27:01 GMT
COPELAND
Some observations
1) Prefer it called Whitehaven.
2) By-election will have higher profile than Sleaford but lower Than Richmond.
3) Imagine TO to be lower than Sleaford and Richmond.
4) Expect existing UKIP vote to fray a bit back to Conservatives.
5) Possible inroad by UKIP into Labour vote?
6) Probable further improvement by LDs but fairly minor despite proximity of Farron.
7) Could be Labour erosion because member has quit and if substitute ordinary to poor.
8) Other parties of no significance.
9) Smaller majority than already close figure.
This will be entirely down to TO and differential swing. UKIP importance will be what they take and what they lose. If the soft blue trends back to Conservative or just tactical drift to beat Labour (I would probably vote Conservative) then Labour is in real trouble. If that happens as well as soft red drift to UKIP, Labour are beaten. Complete collapse in our vote might help Labour? Modest increase to us might help Labour. Big surge to us and Labour are beaten.
Doubt LD modest success will have much effect but likely to damage Labour more than Conservatives. At the outset this looks to be very close with a small Labour edge of say 350-700?
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 23, 2016 11:25:53 GMT
The seat was known as Whitehaven until 1983 when the boundary commission decided for some reason that they should use the names of local authorities whenever possible. So in 1983 a lot of seats had their names changed from the name of the main town in the constituency to the name of the district or borough. For example, in 1983 Beeston became Broxtowe, Carlton -> Gedling, Kidderminster -> Wyre Forest, Whitehaven -> Copeland, Accrington -> Hyndburn, Nelson & Colne -> Pendle, Ebbw Vale -> Islwyn Blaenau Gwent, Bedwellty -> Islwyn.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 23, 2016 11:44:15 GMT
I thought Ebbw Vale became Blaenau Gwent*...? * With parts going to Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney |
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Post by La Fontaine on Dec 23, 2016 11:50:30 GMT
I thought Ebbw Vale became Blaenau Gwent*...? * With parts going to Merthyr Tydfil & RhymneyWhen I worked in the by-election following Neil Kinnocks's departure we decided Islwyn meant "heavy rain". |
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 23, 2016 12:03:46 GMT
I thought Ebbw Vale became Blaenau Gwent*...? * With parts going to Merthyr Tydfil & RhymneyYou're right. Islwyn used to be Bedwellty. |
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