neilm
Non-Aligned
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Copeland
Jan 20, 2017 22:17:56 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 20, 2017 22:17:56 GMT
So we've touched on Italian literature, the Spanish order of succession and pubs in the constituency (or was that Stoke?). How long until rail links come up?
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Copeland
Jan 20, 2017 22:21:06 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 20, 2017 22:21:06 GMT
I have to correct myself, she's a member of the King's Family, rather than the Royal Family. The Royal Family is defined separately.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Copeland
Jan 20, 2017 22:23:24 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 20, 2017 22:23:24 GMT
She's a current member. She's the sister of the current king and sixth in line to the throne. She only lost her title when her Barcelona resident, Basque husband (those things go down really well in Madrid) got accused of something dodgy (the Noos case). It was a bit strange, I read that Felipe indicated in private that he wanted to strip her of the title and then she wrote asking to be stripped of it, which was then promulgated. She's merely an infanta now. Christ, Neil, for a second I read your first sentence and thought you were telling me she was a member of the Tory party. If the politics of some of the House of Bourbon-Anjou are to be believed she could be... I always feel faintly ridiculous referring to the House of Bourbon-Anjou, House of Windsor etc. Makes them sound like Klingons. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 20, 2017 22:24:11 GMT
So we've touched on Italian literature, the Spanish order of succession and pubs in the constituency (or was that Stoke?). How long until rail links come up? Carlton briefly mentioned railways in the Stoke thread. I can only offer that I watched Workington v Burscough in a league game (....think it was a league game no maybe FA Cup) so there's one stretch of Cumbrian railway I've yet to do, namely the one running through this constituency..... |
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Post by politicalmatrix on Jan 20, 2017 22:49:53 GMT
UKIP Cumbria wrote an open letter calling for Douglas Carswell to be suspended about 2 months ago. |
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Post by justin124 on Jan 20, 2017 23:53:00 GMT
The report in The Telegraph suggesting that Labour has lost 35% of its support here since 2015 seems a bit odd. If this is true why on earth has Labour called the by election so early rather than waiting for May 4th?. If the seat is so obviously 'lost' why have two days of bad news rather than one?
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
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Post by Foggy on Jan 21, 2017 1:30:41 GMT
I have to correct myself, she's a member of the King's Family, rather than the Royal Family. The Royal Family is defined separately. I can't see how there is much of a linguistic differentiation in Spanish ( la familia del Rey = la Familia Real), but I know the Dutch make a formal distinction between their royal family and The Royal House, which seems neatly sensible to me. I'm not sure that the Spanish branch of the Bourbons would refer to itself as Angevin either. I can only offer that I watched Workington v Burscough in a league game (.... think it was a league game no maybe FA Cup) so there's one stretch of Cumbrian railway I've yet to do, namely the one running through this constituency..... Which year was it? I don't think those two teams have been in the same division that often in recent years. Could've been a match in the FA Trophy (which Burscough have actually won!) as well, of course. |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Copeland
Jan 21, 2017 3:33:34 GMT
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Post by neilm on Jan 21, 2017 3:33:34 GMT
I have to correct myself, she's a member of the King's Family, rather than the Royal Family. The Royal Family is defined separately. I can't see how there is much of a linguistic differentiation in Spanish ( la familia del Rey = la Familia Real), but I know the Dutch make a formal distinction between their royal family and The Royal House, which seems neatly sensible to me. I'm not sure that the Spanish branch of the Bourbons would refer to itself as Angevin either. I can only offer that I watched Workington v Burscough in a league game (.... think it was a league game no maybe FA Cup) so there's one stretch of Cumbrian railway I've yet to do, namely the one running through this constituency..... Which year was it? I don't think those two teams have been in the same division that often in recent years. Could've been a match in the FA Trophy (which Burscough have actually won!) as well, of course. The Royal Family is defined as him, his wife, the heir and his parents. That's by proclation. Anyone else is King's Family. This isn't linguistic. |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,875
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Copeland
Jan 21, 2017 6:16:54 GMT
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Post by right on Jan 21, 2017 6:16:54 GMT
"Based on 10,000 conversations". Either that seat was looked after reasonably well by Reed or they have a good telephone canvassing operation going. This looks like an expectations management piece and Labour is expecting to hold (perhaps with a lower margin). |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jan 21, 2017 9:22:36 GMT
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Copeland
Jan 21, 2017 9:33:23 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2017 9:33:23 GMT
"Based on 10,000 conversations". Either that seat was looked after reasonably well by Reed or they have a good telephone canvassing operation going. This looks like an expectations management piece and Labour is expecting to hold (perhaps with a lower margin). Expectation management when you expect to win is usually "it will be really close" not "we are going to lose by a mile" Sounds more like anti-Corbyn leaking to me. 10,000 conversations sounds a little unlikely at this stage though, given the lack of very obvious campaigning by Labour on Twitter. I would not be surprised if the Tories have achieved that though, and given where this story appeared it has a bit of a "false flag" feel about it... |
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Copeland
Jan 21, 2017 9:36:00 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2017 9:36:00 GMT
Good spot on the Torygraph form guide! |
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Copeland
Jan 21, 2017 9:38:52 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Jan 21, 2017 9:38:52 GMT
On dates, i think Labour would have liked to leave Copeland till May, but need to hold Stoke ASAP to suppress any UKIP surge
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Post by johnloony on Jan 21, 2017 9:42:35 GMT
The reports about Labour canvassing returns in Copeland should be taken with a huge pinch of salt. At best, it's being spun and hyped up to reduce expectations of a big Labour majority; at worst, it's an idiotic journalist who doesn't understand statistics or sampling, or the difference between absolute numbers and percentages, or differential turnout, or margin of error.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 21, 2017 10:13:38 GMT
"Based on 10,000 conversations". Either that seat was looked after reasonably well by Reed or they have a good telephone canvassing operation going. This looks like an expectations management piece and Labour is expecting to hold (perhaps with a lower margin). Expectation management when you expect to win is usually "it will be really close" not "we are going to lose by a mile" Sounds more like anti-Corbyn leaking to me. 10,000 conversations sounds a little unlikely at this stage though, given the lack of very obvious campaigning by Labour on Twitter. I would not be surprised if the Tories have achieved that though, and given where this story appeared it has a bit of a "false flag" feel about it... Which may be somewhat misleading, not least because I (along with other local party members, presumably) am being bombarded with emails about leafleting and canvassing. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jan 21, 2017 10:33:54 GMT
On dates, i think Labour would have liked to leave Copeland till May, but need to hold Stoke ASAP to suppress any UKIP surge I think you are over thinking this andrew. If you go early people accuse you of trying to stop your opponents building up a head of steam and if you delay for as long as possible you are accused of hoping your opponents will run out of steam....Once Reed had announced he was going it had to be as soon as possible really. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 21, 2017 10:48:09 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2017 11:38:01 GMT
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Post by justin124 on Jan 21, 2017 11:49:27 GMT
On dates, i think Labour would have liked to leave Copeland till May, but need to hold Stoke ASAP to suppress any UKIP surge There would be no need to hold both by elections on the same day anyway - particularly if the MPs had resigned on different dates. There was a suggestion in the press of disagreement between National HQ and the local party as to preferred timing - the latter wanted an early poll whilst party HQ were inclined to wait until May 4th. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2017 11:52:04 GMT
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