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Post by carlton43 on Jan 13, 2017 11:57:26 GMT
It will be Troughton and visceral weaponized campaign centred and honed on the NHS. That is probably the best defensive tactic for Labour in a difficult climate. She is described as a trained orthopaedic surgeon, as opposed to the many NHS untrained surgeons, there of course because of the cuts to the NHS and the Conservatives having closed all the training courses as part of austerity. FWIW, the favourite appears to be Holliday. All three could have a shout, though. Oh! I do so hope you prove to be right. |
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Post by justin124 on Jan 13, 2017 15:20:51 GMT
I would suggest that a 7% probability of all three being women on the shortlist is very low - indeed suspicious!
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andrea
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Post by andrea on Jan 13, 2017 15:36:52 GMT
Before 2015 GE Troughton tried selection for Carlisle, Lancaster & Fleetwood (lost 86 to 51 to Smith) and Warrington South
Cannon tried for Carlisle
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swix
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Post by swix on Jan 13, 2017 15:45:53 GMT
It looks like everything is being set up for Holliday to be the candidate.
No word yet on the Tory selection? Given the boundary changes, if their candidate does win the seat, they will likely have to try and start all over again and fight Barrow.
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Post by froome on Jan 13, 2017 15:59:51 GMT
I would suggest that a 7% probability of all three being women on the shortlist is very low - indeed suspicious! Why? |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 13, 2017 16:34:24 GMT
I would suggest that a 7% probability of all three being women on the shortlist is very low - indeed suspicious! Why? not high or low, but 7% assuming DBs maths is correct which I'm sure it is. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 13, 2017 16:52:39 GMT
It's 4 out of 8, times 3 out of 7, times 2 out of 6. Comes to 7.14%.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 13, 2017 17:01:18 GMT
At the Crewe & Nantwich b/e we ended up with an all-female shortlist.
Because they happened to be considered the best applicants.
Our existing PPC (male) flounced off in high dudgeon.
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 13, 2017 17:01:44 GMT
I would suggest that a 7% probability of all three being women on the shortlist is very low - indeed suspicious! On average, and assuming that male and female candidates tend to be of equal quality, a three-woman shortlist will result from a gender-balanced eight-person longlist once in every 14 selections. I wouldn't call beating those kind of odds "suspicious". It's going to happen occasionally, and there's no reason why this particular selection wouldn't be one of those occasions. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 13, 2017 17:06:01 GMT
People wouldn't blink if it happened that a shortlist ended up with three men on it. All three women in question look like decent candidates on paper.
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Post by froome on Jan 13, 2017 17:21:20 GMT
not high or low, but 7% assuming DBs maths is correct which I'm sure it is. The "why" referred to being suspicious, which others have since also raised. |
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Post by justin124 on Jan 13, 2017 17:52:48 GMT
People wouldn't blink if it happened that a shortlist ended up with three men on it. All three women in question look like decent candidates on paper. I would find it equally odd if a shortlist of three men emerged from a longlist containing four women. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 13, 2017 18:02:15 GMT
People wouldn't blink if it happened that a shortlist ended up with three men on it. All three women in question look like decent candidates on paper. I would find it equally odd if a shortlist of three men emerged from a longlist containing four women. Well, statistically, it's bound to happen from time to time. 7% is 1 out of 14, not that rare. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 13, 2017 18:45:15 GMT
and that is before you even start thinking about the relative merits of the candidates
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Deleted
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Copeland
Jan 13, 2017 20:10:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2017 20:10:02 GMT
I will be gracing this fair land with my presence with a couple of other Wandsworth torys. Going to be an early start ...
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 13, 2017 22:08:30 GMT
The thing I find odd about this familiar complaint is the unspoken assumption that the candidates left off were better, deserved to be on the shortlist and have only been kept off for nefarious reasons, probably relating to a gender conspiracy.
Anecdotally, it just doesn't ring true with me. I've seen plenty of all-male shortlists where all the candidates were dreadful - in fact I've been on three of them, and once I didn't even get the nomination! No party is so over-run with top-class candidates that they can afford to leave off good applicants.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 14, 2017 10:29:38 GMT
Though I would imagine that Lansman, Shawcroft and Co will be coaching Holliday Yes, but you "imagine" lots of things. I will let you into a secret - this isn't a naturally Corbyn-friendly constituency (rather like yours, in fact) and a straightforwardly "Corbynista" message wouldn't have enough adherents to be successful. All three candidates are likely to have a "unifying" approach both locally and nationally - that's one of the reasons they were shortlisted. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 16, 2017 10:21:32 GMT
Though I would imagine that Lansman, Shawcroft and Co will be coaching Holliday Yes, but you "imagine" lots of things. I will let you into a secret - this isn't a naturally Corbyn-friendly constituency (rather like yours, in fact) and a straightforwardly "Corbynista" message wouldn't have enough adherents to be successful. All three candidates are likely to have a "unifying" approach both locally and nationally - that's one of the reasons they were shortlisted. NHS . NHS . NHS. When delivering leaflets in the Faslane surrounds many years ago the electorate were quite happy to vote far a Labour candidate who opposed nukes. |
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jan 18, 2017 21:11:16 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2017 21:38:39 GMT
I have seen nothing to suggest that. I suspect what is being complained of is neglect, as the leadership seems to have decided that Stoke is a better bet. |
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