Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 23, 2017 16:24:07 GMT
No it isn't. The 24 provinces form MultiSeaters (2-20 seats). What is your source? I was going by this description from IFES (which is admittedly about the 2013 elections, but I haven't heard anything about them changing it). "In the National Assembly, all members are elected to serve four-year terms. Fifteen members are elected through an open-list proportional representation system; 116 members are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies; and six members are elected by majority vote in multimember constituencies. These six seats are reserved for representatives of Ecuadorians living abroad; these members are elected in three multimember constituencies (two representatives for Asia, Australia, and Europe; two for Canada and the United States; and two for Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa)." I then checked with Wiki, which says single-member constituencies as well (using IPU as their source). En.wikipedia says FPTP, right (i.e. wrong). But es.wikipedia provides a map and the CandidateLists. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 16:29:28 GMT
What is your source? I was going by this description from IFES (which is admittedly about the 2013 elections, but I haven't heard anything about them changing it). "In the National Assembly, all members are elected to serve four-year terms. Fifteen members are elected through an open-list proportional representation system; 116 members are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies; and six members are elected by majority vote in multimember constituencies. These six seats are reserved for representatives of Ecuadorians living abroad; these members are elected in three multimember constituencies (two representatives for Asia, Australia, and Europe; two for Canada and the United States; and two for Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa)." I then checked with Wiki, which says single-member constituencies as well (using IPU as their source). En.wikipedia says FPTP, right (i.e. wrong). But es.wikipedia provides a map and the CandidateLists. It was FPTP in 2013, and I really doubt they have changed it. See also: www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2555/ |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 17:14:38 GMT
Well, okay....
The 116 provincial & district MPs are elected in 31 multi-member constituencies corresponding to the 24 Ecuadorian provinces, with the three most populated provinces being subdivided into four (Guayas, Pichincha), or two (Manabí) electoral districts, seats are allocated using d’Hondt.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2017 2:22:56 GMT
FPTP (116 constituencies) No it isn't. The 24 provinces form MultiSeaters (2-20 seats). Well spotted Georg. I thought that description of the system sounded dubious. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 2:34:01 GMT
No it isn't. The 24 provinces form MultiSeaters (2-20 seats). Well spotted Georg. I thought that description of the system sounded dubious. There are 31 constituencies, not 24. FPTP is quoted several places, may I ask why you thought it sounded "dubious"? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 24, 2017 2:40:17 GMT
Well spotted Georg. I thought that description of the system sounded dubious. There are 31 constituencies, not 24. FPTP is quoted several places, may I ask why you thought it sounded "dubious"? Very few places outside the Commonwealth and USA fill their legislatures mostly or entirely by FPTP, and Ecuador is not an exception that I've come across before. ¡Por favor, comprueba siempre con fuentes hispanohablantes también! I ought to have done so myself when I first doubted your assertion, but I don't really care enough about that side of the Ecuadorian election. The presidential race appears far more important. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 2:51:58 GMT
There are 31 constituencies, not 24. FPTP is quoted several places, may I ask why you thought it sounded "dubious"? Very few places outside the Commonwealth and USA fill their legislatures mostly or entirely by FPTP, and Ecuador is not an exception that I've come across before. ¡Por favor, comprueba siempre con fuentes hispanohablantes también! I ought to have done so myself when I first doubted your assertion, but I don't really care enough about that side of the Ecuadorian election. The presidential race appears far more important. You could have just sent me a PM, no reason to check it yourself. The four Guayas constituencies (5 seaters) are divided: District 1: Parroquias Ximena y Febres Cordero del Cantón Guayaquil District 2: Sectores populares de la Parroquia Tarqui del Cantón Guayaquil District 3: Parroquias Tarqui, Letamendi, García Moreno, Urdaneta, Sucre, Ayacucho, Bolívar, Olmedo, Rocafuerte, Nueve de Octubre, Roca, Carbo, Pascuales, Posorja, Tenguel, Juan Gómez Rendón, Chongón, Puná, El Morro, Estuario, todas del cantón Guayaquil, además de los Cantones Playas, Samborondón y Durán District 4: Cantones Jujan, Balao, Balzar, Colimes, Marcelino Maridueña, Daule, El Empalme, El Triunfo, Bucay, Isidro Ayora, Lomas de Sargentillo, Milagro, Naranjal, Naranjito, Nobol, Palestina, Pedro Carbo, Salitre, Santa Lucía, Simón Bolívar y Yaguachi  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 6:49:05 GMT
There are 31 constituencies, not 24. FPTP is quoted several places, may I ask why you thought it sounded "dubious"? Very few places outside the Commonwealth and USA fill their legislatures mostly or entirely by FPTP, and Ecuador is not an exception that I've come across before. According to IDEA there are 47 countries and self-governing territories using pure FPTP and an additional 11 using FPTP moderated by another system (typically some kind of block vote). The number of these without any historical or current relation to the UK or US is indeed rather limited (5 with full FTPT and 3 "moderated") and Panama is the only Latin American country among them (and US influence in Panama has been unusually strong with the country often being a de facto dependency). Three are in the former Soviet Union + "dependencies" (aka Mongolia) and three in francophone Africa. Anguilla Antigua and Barbuda Azerbaijan Bahamas Bangladesh Barbados Belarus Belize Bermuda Botswana Canada Cook Islands Dominica Ethiopia Gambia Ghana Grenada India Jamaica Kenya Liberia Madagascar Malawi Malaysia Maldives Federated States of Micronesia Mongolia Myanmar Nigeria Oman Palau Saint Kitts and Nevis Saint Lucia Saint Vincent and The Grenadines Sierra Leone Solomon Islands Swaziland Tanzania Tonga Trinidad and Tobago Uganda United Kingdom United States British Virgin Islands Yemen (partial) Zambia Zimbabwe Cameroon (partial) Chad Côte d'Ivoire Jersey Marshall Islands Niue Panama (US influence/Canal Zone) Saint Helena Samoa Singapore Turks and Caicos Islands |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2017 15:20:06 GMT
With 99.71% of precincts counted its 39.35% vs. 28.1%, so a solid margin. The combined Moreno and Moncayo vote is 46.06%, slightly bigger than the combined Lasso + Viewer vote at 44.41% (though that is of course just a very rough baseline). Hard to predict how the votes from the two populist candidates split, and how many voters will stay home in the 2nd round. Abdalá Bucaram hates Rafael Correa, but its hard to say to what degree the people that voted for him do, and whether they would be willing to vote for Lasso, or simply choose to stay home (I would be very interested in seeing polls of this).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 25, 2017 3:19:01 GMT
The normally well-informed NeueZürcherZeitung has reported, that the mood in the CorreaCamp isn't too optimistic now.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Feb 25, 2017 23:30:31 GMT
Very few places outside the Commonwealth and USA fill their legislatures mostly or entirely by FPTP, and Ecuador is not an exception that I've come across before. According to IDEA there are 47 countries and self-governing territories using pure FPTP and an additional 11 using FPTP moderated by another system (typically some kind of block vote). The number of these without any historical or current relation to the UK or US is indeed rather limited (5 with full FPTP and 3 "moderated") and Panama is the only Latin American country among them (and US influence in Panama has been unusually strong with the country often being a de facto dependency). Three are in the former Soviet Union + "dependencies" (aka Mongolia) and three in francophone Africa. Thanks for looking this up. Didn't know about a few of those, although at least a couple are very flawed democracies at best! I should've thought of Mongolia and Panama ought to have come to mind in Latin America for the reasons you state as well. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2017 5:41:07 GMT
Cedatos run-off poll: Guillermo Lasso 52.1% Lenín Moreno 47.9% Alianza PAIS look set to save their majority in the National Assembly as they are projected to win between 72 and 75 seats out of 137. This would make it hard for Lasso to govern if he wins. It might reassure some moderate centre-left voters that they can pick Lasso without him going "full neo-liberal" and it might persuade some voters to choose Moreno in order to avoid gridlock, hard to say which effect will be the strongest (I think it will be the former, but that is merely a guess).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 28, 2017 0:09:12 GMT
Es.wikipedia reports this SeatDistribution:
73 AP
34 AC
--32 CREO
--02 SUMA (centrist Upper&Middle-Class)
15 PSC
08 ANC (HarderLeft)
--04 MUPP (RedIndians)
--04 ID (Soc.Dem.)
03 PSP (exPresident Gutierrez)
01 FE (demagogue Bucaram)
03 local parties
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 10, 2017 22:42:14 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 16, 2017 12:06:13 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 2, 2017 22:02:01 GMT
PollingStations are closing now (i think).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 2, 2017 23:08:25 GMT
I think this is the official results site: www.cne-elecciones2017.comThey're a bit slow to count but as of now at this moment in time, Moreno is ahead with 33,449 to 28,935 for Lasso. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Apr 2, 2017 23:13:32 GMT
Interesting that they use 'exit poll' rather than a Spanish alternative, although I'm not entirely sure what that would be.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 2, 2017 23:18:35 GMT
Actually I think that may be just Azuay Province.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 2, 2017 23:38:25 GMT
Just run through the figures and with just under five million votes counted, Moreno is ahead with 50.7%.
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