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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 3:18:15 GMT
It looks like Moreno will get the 10% margin, but may fail to pass 40%. www.elcomercio.com |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 3:33:37 GMT
Moreno is at 38.8% in both the official count (at 77%) and the Participación Ciudadana count which has 87.4% included.
If there is a run-off its worth remembering that Paco Moncayo voters will overwhelmingly choose Moreno (even if a few may stay home).
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 4:04:17 GMT
As expected the proposal to ban politicians and civil servants from using tax havens has passed.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 6:04:49 GMT
With 81.4% counted its 38.9 vs. 28.5. Moreno is gaining very slowly and I doubt he will crack 40%, but he should get closer.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 6:16:14 GMT
Cynthia Viteri has endorsed Lasso in the run-off, but says PSC will not be part of any government. Paco Moncayo says he won't endorse anyone in a second round.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 7:01:21 GMT
Participación Ciudadana's rapid count has finished and indicates there will be a run-off between Moreno and Lasso as Moreno can't reach 40%. Its based on the 87.4% of 10,500 precincts where their accredited delegates were represented and has an overall MoE of 1%.
Lenín Moreno 38.8% with a 1% margin of error
Guillermo Lasso 28.2% with a 0.8% margin of error
Cynthia Viteri 16.4% with a 0.6% margin of error
Paco Moncayo 6.9% with a 0.3% margin of error
Abdalá Bucaram 4.9% with a 0.3% margin of error
Iván Espinel 3.2% with a 0.1% margin of error
Washington Pesantez 0.8% with a 0.1% margin of error
Patricio Zuquilanda 0.8% with a 0.1% margin of error
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Feb 20, 2017 8:52:10 GMT
The lack of a run-off would not be a triumph for Swedish rape survivors who would like to see a certain egomaniacal Australian coward put on trial. Has there been any involvement of wikileaks during the campaign? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 8:58:48 GMT
With 86.8% of polling stations counted its 39.08 to 28.29
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Post by John Chanin on Feb 20, 2017 13:16:43 GMT
Latest figure is 39.10% for Moreno and 28.28% for Lasso, according to the TV. So Moreno has his 10% margin, but not the 40%. Viteri polled 16.35% - more than expected. Run off likely to be close.
Voting is compulsory in Ecuador, but there is no postal voting or the ability a la Australia to vote elsewhere. And it's a $60 fine for not voting. So a bit of a problem for those away working like my guide and driver. The driver has got his brother to impersonate him. The guide we agreed to detour via his neighbourhood in Quito so he could vote.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Feb 20, 2017 13:42:08 GMT
Latest figure is 39.10% for Moreno and 28.28% for Lasso, according to the TV. So Moreno has his 10% margin, but not the 40%. Viteri polled 16.35% - more than expected. Run off likely to be close. Voting is compulsory in Ecuador, but there is no postal voting or the ability a la Australia to vote elsewhere. And it's a $60 fine for not voting. So a bit of a problem for those away working like my guide and driver. The driver has got his brother to impersonate him. The guide we agreed to detour via his neighbourhood in Quito so he could vote. I'm guessing that formal proxy voting isn't a thing there either? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 20, 2017 14:03:19 GMT
39.10% to 29.57% with 87.8% of polling places counted, so right now there isn't even a 10 point margin.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 2:00:24 GMT
This takes forever, but with 90.6% of precincts counted its 39.08% to 28.41%. It seems unrealistic that Moreno will gain almost a point on the last 9.4%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 3:12:46 GMT
National Assembly results with 62.8% of precincts counted
Alianza PAIS 38.52%
CREO/SUMA 21.66%
Social Christian Party 13.36%
Fuerza Ecuador 4.16%
Democratic Left 4.19%
January 21 Patriotic Society Party 3.41%
Pachakutik Plurinational Unity Movement 3.26%
Avanza 2.39%
Social Commitment Force 1.97%
Popular Unity 1.8%
Forward Ecuadorian Forward 1.32%
Concertación 1.12%
National Democratic Center 1.07%
Ecuadorian Socialist Party 0.93%
Ecuadorian Union 0.87%
Apart from AP the parties are very loosely organized, and like in neighboring Peru most voters simply choose the same party for the assembly as they do for president. This pattern seems to be holding up well. Its noticeable that Democratic Left significantly underperform Moncayo. Vieri and Lasso also do better than their parties, the former more than the latter.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Feb 21, 2017 8:05:30 GMT
What is the National Assembly election method?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 11:20:47 GMT
  Green Moreno Blue Lasso |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2017 11:26:59 GMT
What is the National Assembly election method? FPTP (116 constituencies) + 15 elected by free list PR (up to 15 votes per voter) in one national constituency. Then there are three overseas constituencies each electing two MPs (top two vote getters). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 5:10:58 GMT
The president of the electoral Commission (CNE) Juan Pablo Pozo has declared that the trend is irreversible and its mathematically impossible to change the result and avoid a second round.
"We can conclude that there will be no major change considering the 5% that is yet to be scrutinized, and that the tendencies are irreversible."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 18:44:38 GMT
With 98.54% of precincts counted its 39.33% to 28.18%, so an 11% margin and less than 0.7 point short of the threshold.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
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Post by Georg Ebner on Feb 23, 2017 2:19:41 GMT
What is the National Assembly election method? FPTP (116 constituencies) No it isn't. The 24 provinces form MultiSeaters (2-20 seats). |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2017 3:00:53 GMT
FPTP (116 constituencies) No it isn't. The 24 provinces form MultiSeaters (2-20 seats). What is your source? I was going by this description from IFES (which is admittedly about the 2013 elections, but I haven't heard anything about them changing it). "In the National Assembly, all members are elected to serve four-year terms. Fifteen members are elected through an open-list proportional representation system; 116 members are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies; and six members are elected by majority vote in multimember constituencies. These six seats are reserved for representatives of Ecuadorians living abroad; these members are elected in three multimember constituencies (two representatives for Asia, Australia, and Europe; two for Canada and the United States; and two for Latin America, the Caribbean and Africa)." I then checked with Wiki, which says single-member constituencies as well (using IPU as their source). |
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