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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 16:55:43 GMT
No one believed in a Lib Dem win in Witney. Their expectations are making Richmond Park a must win case. It's "must win" in the sense that without it there is no reason to think that the current settled political narrative (which continues to see us at 8% polls) will change in the near future. If anything, we would require T May to trip up, or another by-election (more winnable, evidently), to see any improvement. I'm guessing that the party has thrown caution to the win in expectation management because they have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now, so we might as well gamble in the hope of swinging even a few votes. I think I agree with them. I like 'thrown caution to the win'! It might catch on. This would be an important win but is really not significant to the voting public. It is I suppose more important to you internally as with a football squad? You say 'have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now...'? I think that is unduly pessimistic. In my opinion you chose a duff leader who comes across on TV as an unsuccessful geography teacher in a failing Comp. But otherwise the drift looks pretty good. Steady wins and not many losses. Ability to crowd source events like this. More members and very much a niche in being the Remain Party where others are conflicted. The damage from the coalition diminishes daily. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2016 17:08:42 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down. Don't people get used to it? Seriously. I remember leafleting in the Heald Green part of Cheadle a few elections back and one chap had named his house "Boeing View" or similar; was sat out in his garden watching the planes coming over every few minutes, happy as Larry. I said to him "Aren't you bothered by the noise?" He said "Pardon?"
But seriously, doesn't it just become background after a while? |
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Post by slicesofjim on Dec 1, 2016 17:12:19 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down. Don't people get used to it? Seriously. I remember leafleting in the Heald Green part of Cheadle a few elections back and one chap had named his house "Boeing View" or similar; was sat out in his garden watching the planes coming over every few minutes, happy as Larry. I said to him "Aren't you bothered by the noise?" He said "Pardon?"
But seriously, doesn't it just become background after a while?I have heard people say that, but it's not a constant noise like the hum of a fridge, it's recurring, so it's more like chinese water torture. Noise does funny things to the brain, which would be my explanation if Goldsmith wins ;-) |
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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 1, 2016 17:32:07 GMT
That polling does look a bit fishy. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 17:37:50 GMT
What a load of carp! Decimal points, too ... Neologism of the year Robert! Deep respect. Fits in to the new regime of better badinage. 'A load of Carp'..........................I like it. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 17:44:12 GMT
72-plays-61 in our poll so far and I don't think many have altered their projection during the time? Also more think Zac will have a good or very good win than the other way. But, yes, a very big majority hill to overcome. What are we all projecting for TO? I would say there is enough momentum and profile in an area of well-educated responsible people to make it over 50% but perhaps not by much?
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 1, 2016 18:23:32 GMT
I'll stow my rod and stop carping if the results are within a margin of error of those pis-cine figures.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 1, 2016 18:28:30 GMT
I'll stow my rod and stop carping if the results are within a margin of error of those pis-cine figures. "Don't tell him Pike!" |
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markf
Non-Aligned
a victim of IDS
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Post by markf on Dec 1, 2016 18:29:50 GMT
I just hope the TORY/UKIP gets beat , beat up would be nice
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 1, 2016 18:41:30 GMT
Here's hoping that Olney will win to end this sad farce that is Zac Goldsmith's parliamentary career. In spite of my dislike of the Lib Dem candidate and campaign I have reluctantly decided to hope for a Lib Dem win for two reasons. Firstly I deplore the circumstances of this by election, it is nothing more than a sop to the conscience of a spoiled rich kid who thinks he can have the best of both worlds. Scores of MPs over the years have seen their party doing something that they strongly opposed or that caused difficulty in their constituency. They either had to stomach it or if they were that bothered leave their party. To call a by election and run as a independent with the obvious intention of then rejoining your party is a disgraceful deception that should not be allowed to succeed. Secondly I have some sympathy with the Lib Dems over how savagely they have been punished by the electorate in recent years. Were this punishment on the basis of their numerous flaws I would have been content with it but since they were punished for talking a responsible and adult decision that was in the best interests of the nation I feel that the extent of their electoral kicking went far beyond what was reasonable. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 19:47:47 GMT
I just hope the TORY/UKIP gets beat , beat up would be nice You are not endearing yourself to some of us. Your grammar and punctuation are as coarse as your views. What did IDS do to you? Strip you of your 'entitlements' and make you reliant on your own efforts? |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 1, 2016 20:02:40 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down. Will Olney's husband being in Heathrow mean that Lib Dems aren't seen as a the "pure"anti-Heathrow option? Or has this simply not penetrated? Hm, Olney's husband worked on a contract for Heathrow over ten years ago. I imagine if it penetrated to anyone with common sense they will have ignored it! I did notice that some bright spark had posted the Evening Standard photo of her standing in front of her bookcase, with a big book on Heathrow photoshopped into it! |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 20:07:08 GMT
I'll stow my rod and stop carping if the results are within a margin of error of those pis-cine figures. Don't get carried away now Robert! 'Load of Carp' was wonderful'. 'Stow my Rod' is decidedly iffy! |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Dec 1, 2016 20:24:15 GMT
No canvasser would ever say "We are ahead" because that amounts to "We don't need your vote, so go to the pub".
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 20:46:35 GMT
I still want him to win to bolster the majority and to upset all the rest of you.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 1, 2016 20:48:37 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 1, 2016 20:50:30 GMT
No canvasser would ever say "We are ahead" because that amounts to "We don't need your vote, so go to the pub". Maybe, although then again canvassers and senior Labour figures in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock confessed to me that they'd lost the constituency by a landslide in 2015 during the general election campaign. Not heard any reports of an impending Liberal Democrat landslide in Richmond Park. Most canvassers from the Labour/Liberal Democrat side are reporting a tight race/that Goldsmith is reasonably well ahead. If you were losing the constituency by a landslide you probably would not be knocking people up on polling day! As Mboy says, the usual line on polling day is "we expect a recount" whatever the reality. Nothing whatsoever can be read into canvassers saying "it is a tight race" |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 1, 2016 20:53:39 GMT
It's "must win" in the sense that without it there is no reason to think that the current settled political narrative (which continues to see us at 8% polls) will change in the near future. If anything, we would require T May to trip up, or another by-election (more winnable, evidently), to see any improvement. I'm guessing that the party has thrown caution to the win in expectation management because they have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now, so we might as well gamble in the hope of swinging even a few votes. I think I agree with them. I like 'thrown caution to the win'! It might catch on. This would be an important win but is really not significant to the voting public. It is I suppose more important to you internally as with a football squad? You say 'have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now...'? I think that is unduly pessimistic. In my opinion you chose a duff leader who comes across on TV as an unsuccessful geography teacher in a failing Comp. But otherwise the drift looks pretty good. Steady wins and not many losses. Ability to crowd source events like this. More members and very much a niche in being the Remain Party where others are conflicted. The damage from the coalition diminishes daily. Tim Farron seems to be doing a lot better on tv these days provided he picks the right target! www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-question-time-tim-farron-nigel-farage_uk_58376cf8e4b0ddedcf5c90af |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 21:09:52 GMT
I like 'thrown caution to the win'! It might catch on. This would be an important win but is really not significant to the voting public. It is I suppose more important to you internally as with a football squad? You say 'have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now...'? I think that is unduly pessimistic. In my opinion you chose a duff leader who comes across on TV as an unsuccessful geography teacher in a failing Comp. But otherwise the drift looks pretty good. Steady wins and not many losses. Ability to crowd source events like this. More members and very much a niche in being the Remain Party where others are conflicted. The damage from the coalition diminishes daily. Tim Farron seems to be doing a lot better on tv these days provided he picks the right target! www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/bbc-question-time-tim-farron-nigel-farage_uk_58376cf8e4b0ddedcf5c90afI must have missed those. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2016 21:13:27 GMT
I honestly believe that this by-election could go either way, my guess would be something along the lines of 48% Liberal Democrat 46% Independent 5% Labour 1% Others, though I could see Goldsmith holding on with a substantial majority. I could also see Olney taking the seat with over 50% of the vote. So, home win, away win or a draw?  |
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