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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 1, 2016 12:08:16 GMT
Labour was squeezed down to 5.8% in Richmond and Barnes in 1992; byelection squeezes are always more intense.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 1, 2016 12:10:45 GMT
Oh Woemar.  |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 1, 2016 12:19:39 GMT
Lib Dems claim to have tellers at every polling station in the constituency. That must be about 50-ish. i'd be very surprised if they didn't. They could probably manage it from the local membership never mind the travelling warriors of the golden bird. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Dec 1, 2016 12:48:30 GMT
When the by-election was called I expected a Labour deposit hold to be unlikely. Now it looks like a dead cert that it will be a lost deposit if that kind of talk is leaking out. |
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Post by iainbhx on Dec 1, 2016 13:18:18 GMT
Yeah, but they did that as expectation management in Witney as well. Just got one more short meeting and then I'm heading over to do my bit in Zacxit |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2016 13:25:28 GMT
As I have already commented on a Lib Dem site. No, no, no. Just no. No. (Isn't he a non-dom?) I love how much of an embarrased shy tory you are gwyn Ah, but if I was a shy Tory wouldn't I be admiring his clever taxation planning?  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Dec 1, 2016 13:27:59 GMT
I'm all for Brexit, but the good people of Richmond have voted 70% in favour of Remain. It's their good right and sensible (from their pov) to elect an MP opposing Brexit. What I'd fail to understand, however, would be how people in overwhelmingly Leave constituencies could still vote for Remain MPs. Because they're not EUmonomaniacs? |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Dec 1, 2016 13:31:17 GMT
If true, that can only be good for your lot, right? If true, it would mean that ~14% of the 18.3% combined Lab/Grn score in 2015 is coming our way. That would leave us needing a swing of 14.5% from the combined Con/UKIP score of 62.4% in 2015, or one switcher in every 4.3 BluKip voters. That's still a hefty swing needed, but perhaps could be helped by a substantial differential turnout. Mike Smithson and others have noted that in the last week the Lib Dem campaign have thrown expectation management out of the window. When I was there at the weekend there wasnt really a "we are winning this" vibe - though it was still positive - so it's an interesting development. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2016 13:33:30 GMT
"Zacxit" is horrendous.
.... horrendous a word, not a concept.
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Post by slicesofjim on Dec 1, 2016 13:35:38 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 1, 2016 15:52:56 GMT
Why would it be dark humour? This is one of Labour's weakest constituencies in London even when there's no tactical pressure being exerted.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,823
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Post by right on Dec 1, 2016 16:00:59 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down. Will Olney's husband being in Heathrow mean that Lib Dems aren't seen as a the "pure"anti-Heathrow option? Or has this simply not penetrated? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2016 16:02:40 GMT
A poor result no doubt, but given we were only on 5% in 2010, hardly seems so outlandish as to constitute "dark humour" |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,040
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 1, 2016 16:05:26 GMT
I'm wondering how a low Labour poll here (certain) can be concern trollingly spun?  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,040
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 1, 2016 16:08:35 GMT
Anyway though I'd vote for Wolmar if I lived in the constituency I do hope that the Liberals win. I would very much like to see Goldsmith punished for pushing the disgraceful SADIQ KHAN WILL STEAL YOUR GOLD line and in so doing bringing BJP tactics to British elections, a poisonous act that the consequences of will (regrettably) outlast his wretched excuse for a career.
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Post by justin124 on Dec 1, 2016 16:15:03 GMT
Why would it be dark humour? This is one of Labour's weakest constituencies in London even when there's no tactical pressure being exerted. Well Labour used to come second here back in the 1960s! |
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,823
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Post by right on Dec 1, 2016 16:19:01 GMT
Yeah, but they did that as expectation management in Witney as well. Just got one more short meeting and then I'm heading over to do my bit in Zacxit No one believed in a Lib Dem win in Witney. Their expectations are making Richmond Park a must win case. |
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Post by slicesofjim on Dec 1, 2016 16:30:57 GMT
I'm in Kew at the moment (for unconnected purposes) and there doesn't exactly seem to be by-election fever. I can see (or rather, hear) why they're so pissed off about Heathrow though, it makes me wonder why they are so bothered about another runway though, a few more planes won't make it any more disturbing. If I lived here I'd want the whole bloody place shut down. Will Olney's husband being in Heathrow mean that Lib Dems aren't seen as a the "pure"anti-Heathrow option? Or has this simply not penetrated? I'm just here briefly on business (and a little pleasure), so I've not really interrogated the natives much, I'm afraid. Like Sibboleth I'm just in a position of hoping Wolmar does as well as possible while also seeing the end of Goldsmith's rather miserable and tawdry political career. |
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Post by carlton43 on Dec 1, 2016 16:41:15 GMT
By-elections are funny cattle, as is a local political mood. With all candidates on the same side of one issue but Goldsmith the only Brexit candidate in a Remain constituency where the Remain vote is concentrated really on one party too; it is down to turnout and how many fiscal conservatives and tribal Conservatives will stay true to the Independent-in-name rich Conservative. That was always the conundrum and why I place him in the '0-10' section when the poll was first launched. With no 'feel' at all as I have never been there at any time, I still stay with a quiet modest win for the incumbent.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Dec 1, 2016 16:46:02 GMT
Yeah, but they did that as expectation management in Witney as well. Just got one more short meeting and then I'm heading over to do my bit in Zacxit No one believed in a Lib Dem win in Witney. Their expectations are making Richmond Park a must win case. It's "must win" in the sense that without it there is no reason to think that the current settled political narrative (which continues to see us at 8% polls) will change in the near future. If anything, we would require T May to trip up, or another by-election (more winnable, evidently), to see any improvement. I'm guessing that the party has thrown caution to the wind in expectation management because they have calculated that things cannot get worse for us right now, so we might as well gamble in the hope of swinging even a few votes. I think I agree with them. |
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