mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Oct 25, 2016 11:49:01 GMT
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 25, 2016 11:51:09 GMT
If he does resign and stand as an Independent this will be the perfect decision for all of us except the tribal Blues. It is the exciting by-election for which we crave.
At last the correct decision over Heathrow decades too late. We need a bill on it now pushed through by both the majors stating it is a vital and necessary and overdue item of national strategy and that they will be no discussions, no hearings, no appeals and no delay. This has been kicked about far far too long as it is.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 11:53:53 GMT
If he does resign and stand as an Independent this will be the perfect decision for all of us except the tribal Blues. It is the exciting by-election for which we crave. At last the correct decision over Heathrow decades too late. We need a bill on it now pushed through by both the majors stating it is a vital and necessary and overdue item of national strategy and that they will be no discussions, no hearings, no appeals and no delay. This has been kicked about far far too long as it is. I lived in Richmond Park for a while. If Goldsmith stands as an independent, the result will be somewhat unpredictable, though I would expect a Lib Dem gain as the most likely outcome. If he doesn't, I'd lay money on the Lib Dems gaining the seat by a large margin. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 11:58:08 GMT
The suggestion is ZG as "independent conservative" type candidate unopposed by official Conservative, not least because the association is largely behind him.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 25, 2016 11:58:59 GMT
If he does resign and stand as an Independent this will be the perfect decision for all of us except the tribal Blues. It is the exciting by-election for which we crave. At last the correct decision over Heathrow decades too late. We need a bill on it now pushed through by both the majors stating it is a vital and necessary and overdue item of national strategy and that they will be no discussions, no hearings, no appeals and no delay. This has been kicked about far far too long as it is. I lived in Richmond Park for a while. If Goldsmith stands as an independent, the result will be somewhat unpredictable, though I would expect a Lib Dem gain as the most likely outcome. If he doesn't, I'd lay money on the Lib Dems gaining the seat by a large margin. I am in no position to dispute with and you have vital local knowledge. BUT! Does it not depend upon the quality of the Conservative and the LD candidates and the perception of the parties up to a point? Or is this purely about Heathrow and nothing else? We need Goldsmith as an Independent to make it a good show don't we? |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,714
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Post by mboy on Oct 25, 2016 12:03:00 GMT
The suggestion is ZG as "independent conservative" type candidate unopposed by official Conservative, not least because the association is largely behind him. A risky move by the Conservative Party, as it suggests to other 'rebels' that they can resign from the party over issues and still get "the nod"; although it does reduce the probability of the Lib Dems winning. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 12:08:37 GMT
I lived in Richmond Park for a while. If Goldsmith stands as an independent, the result will be somewhat unpredictable, though I would expect a Lib Dem gain as the most likely outcome. If he doesn't, I'd lay money on the Lib Dems gaining the seat by a large margin. I am in no position to dispute with and you have vital local knowledge. BUT! Does it not depend upon the quality of the Conservative and the LD candidates and the perception of the parties up to a point? Or is this purely about Heathrow and nothing else? We need Goldsmith as an Independent to make it a good show don't we? I get the impression that Zac Goldsmith might use this as a pretext for leaving the political stage for good. Doing so on a point of principle would be a good way to end an otherwise disappointing career, in which there are very likely a number of festering resentments. Yes, it will be mainly about Heathrow, with the EU referendum (where I think 3/4 of Richmond Park voters backed Remain) as a secondary issue. This is a former Lib Dem seat and, unless they balls things up in an uncharacteristic manner, they should be the beneficiaries of this. I say again that if Goldsmith doesn't stand, they will walk it. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2016 12:12:08 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 12:13:20 GMT
"...a woman of relentless optimism..."I hate her already.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 12:29:09 GMT
I am in no position to dispute with and you have vital local knowledge. BUT! Does it not depend upon the quality of the Conservative and the LD candidates and the perception of the parties up to a point? Or is this purely about Heathrow and nothing else? We need Goldsmith as an Independent to make it a good show don't we? I get the impression that Zac Goldsmith might use this as a pretext for leaving the political stage for good. Doing so on a point of principle would be a good way to end an otherwise disappointing career, in which there are very likely a number of festering resentments. Yes, it will be mainly about Heathrow, with the EU referendum (where I think 3/4 of Richmond Park voters backed Remain) as a secondary issue. This is a former Lib Dem seat and, unless they balls things up in an uncharacteristic manner, they should be the beneficiaries of this. I say again that if Goldsmith doesn't stand, they will walk it. Well, so much for that. Guido says he's standing. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 25, 2016 12:47:48 GMT
I am in no position to dispute with and you have vital local knowledge. BUT! Does it not depend upon the quality of the Conservative and the LD candidates and the perception of the parties up to a point? Or is this purely about Heathrow and nothing else? We need Goldsmith as an Independent to make it a good show don't we? I get the impression that Zac Goldsmith might use this as a pretext for leaving the political stage for good. Doing so on a point of principle would be a good way to end an otherwise disappointing career, in which there are very likely a number of festering resentments. Yes, it will be mainly about Heathrow, with the EU referendum (where I think 3/4 of Richmond Park voters backed Remain) as a secondary issue. This is a former Lib Dem seat and, unless they balls things up in an uncharacteristic manner, they should be the beneficiaries of this. I say again that if Goldsmith doesn't stand, they will walk it. 2/3 of Richmond Borough backed Remain. That is not quite the same as Richmond Park, but probably about right? |
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Eastwood
Non-Aligned
Politically restricted post
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Post by Eastwood on Oct 25, 2016 12:54:39 GMT
Ironically it means that Zac Goldsmith will end up taking over a job from Sadiq Khan as he will be appointed Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds putting Sadiq on the dole queue.
David Cameron having obviously bagged the Steward of the Manor of Northstead position in the meantime.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 25, 2016 12:57:21 GMT
"...a woman of relentless optimism..."I hate her already. She's only been a party member since May 2015. I wonder if the Lib Dems will want to use the opportunity to get someone more high profile in - perhaps one of the defeated local MPs ? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 12:59:21 GMT
I get the impression that Zac Goldsmith might use this as a pretext for leaving the political stage for good. Doing so on a point of principle would be a good way to end an otherwise disappointing career, in which there are very likely a number of festering resentments. Yes, it will be mainly about Heathrow, with the EU referendum (where I think 3/4 of Richmond Park voters backed Remain) as a secondary issue. This is a former Lib Dem seat and, unless they balls things up in an uncharacteristic manner, they should be the beneficiaries of this. I say again that if Goldsmith doesn't stand, they will walk it. 2/3 of Richmond Borough backed Remain. That is not quite the same as Richmond Park, but probably about right? Chris Hanratty estimated the Leave vote in Richmond Park at 23.49%. See blog post and spreadsheet. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 25, 2016 13:01:18 GMT
"...a woman of relentless optimism..."I hate her already. She's only been a party member since May 2015. I wonder if the Lib Dems will want to use the opportunity to get someone more high profile in - perhaps one of the defeated local MPs ? Dr Cable has been mentioned, and - while politely pointing out that there is already a candidate in place - doesn't seem to rule it out completely. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2016 13:08:15 GMT
I seriously doubt he really wants it, given both his age and the distinctly attenuated nature of the LibDem parliamentary party for the forseeable future.
(as also just pointed out by our own @strinity on Twitter, said party is also 100% male - there may be merit in trying to get a woman elected)
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 25, 2016 13:15:27 GMT
"...a woman of relentless optimism..."I hate her already. She's only been a party member since May 2015. I wonder if the Lib Dems will want to use the opportunity to get someone more high profile in - perhaps one of the defeated local MPs ? I'm sure it'd be tempting but she's got ideal credentials for the seat (local, financial professional, works for private company that runs a public sector facing establishment, ticks all the boxes really). Can't see Zac standing as anything other than an Indy and can't see any way that the Tories would not put up a candidate (as has been mentioned above, it would give carte blanche for other 'trouble makers' to pull a stunt like this too). The local association would have one imposed on them if necessary and if half of them got expelled then I don't expect the May lead Tory party to lose much sleep over it. They're going to be waving goodbye to quite a few seats and councils as a result of this decision which I'm sure has been factored in as collateral damage. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 25, 2016 13:18:47 GMT
Given that the local Tories are against Heathrow would someone in favour need to be imposed on the party locally? I know the Tories guard local selection of candidates jealously but surely the vast bulk will support Goldsmith ?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 25, 2016 13:29:33 GMT
Wouldn't we have had a 2015 Goldsmith v Cable battle if the boundary changes had gone through in the last parliament?
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 25, 2016 16:12:19 GMT
Zac Goldsmith expected to formally announce his resignation later today Oh bother... |
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