mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,819
Member is Online
|
Post by mboy on Nov 24, 2016 23:45:32 GMT
I notice the forum poll here is currently reading 52:48 to the Brexit candidate. Lol. Will history repeat? We'll know in exactly 1 week...
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Post by Khunanup on Nov 25, 2016 1:32:39 GMT
This by-election will be won and lost on Zac Goldsmith giving voters reason to vote for him. The more that Heathrow gets sidelined as a reason (including by his own actions inc having pro-expansion MPs overtly campaigning for him) the more he has to go on his own credibility/popularity. That reduces the pool of voters but that may be enough.
I'm up there on Saturday, it will be very interesting to see how resilient his coalition is.
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Nov 25, 2016 10:59:38 GMT
If I were Goldsmith I would make hay out of the Greens endorsement of Olney. Carpet bomb the constituency with leaflets linking her to the Greens left wing policies and stand back and watch 2015 Tory voters come home. [/qcuote] Well, the Lib Dems have been making hay over UKIP's endorsement of Zac (and he has foolishly been trying to deny it!). I think the Green leaflet will persuade as many Labour and Green voters as it puts off Tories.. I don't agree there aren't a great deal of Green supporters in this seat anyway and Labour's Corbynite base is very ideological and tends to regard the Lib Dems as just as evil as the 'wicked Tories' and probably even more treacherous and dishonest than them. With 'dear leader' Corbyn in charge it massively lowers Labour's ceiling but it hardens their floor as it makes their base vote much less soft and squeezable for parties like the Lib Dems. Whereas there are a huge amount of socially liberal Tories in this seat which are the key to the Lib Dems winning. Associating themselves with the left wing policies of the Greens is likely to put off the people they actually need to win over and gain them very few votes to compensate for the reasons stated above. |
|
Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 84
|
Post by Adam on Nov 25, 2016 13:50:22 GMT
The latest LibDem leaflet to come through my letter-box (the umpteenth) announces that their candidate I don't know whether the support of the Women's Equality Party will make any difference. They got 3284 votes for the London-wide members of the GLA in May in the whole of the borough of Richmond but Richmond Park only includes the part of the borough on the south bank of the Thames as well as a number of Kingston wards. But I wouldn't have thought they'd have taken any votes from the Tories.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 25, 2016 14:31:34 GMT
In the May elections across London there were 56,664 Goldsmith 1 WEP 2 votes (6.2% of Goldsmith's total) and 7,254 WEP 1 Goldsmith 2 votes (13.7%) so there's clearly some overlap (or maybe Conservative voters looking hard for a second option).
It should be possible to calculate how the constituency voted in May, subject to the complication of splitting two sets of postal votes and any boundary changes in either borough. But I don't think the results go deep enough to show preference combinations are ward level.
|
|
|
|
Post by timrollpickering on Nov 25, 2016 17:36:47 GMT
In fact the calculations have already been done: Richmond Park
| Mayor 1st Prefs |
| |
| Mayor 2PP |
| |
| List |
| |
| Constituency |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| | Con | 28370 | 58.9% | | Con | 29956 | 68.6% |
| Con | 23170 | 48.0% |
| Con | 24564 | 51.0% | | Lab | 11525 | 23.9% |
| Lab | 13715 | 31.4% |
| Lab | 8515 | 17.7% |
| Lab | 8395 | 17.4% | | LD | 3180 | 6.6% |
|
|
|
|
| LD | 5963 | 12.4% |
| LD | 7462 | 15.5% | | Grn | 2524 | 5.2% |
|
|
|
|
| Grn | 4652 | 9.6% |
| Grn | 5436 | 11.3% | | WEP | 930 | 1.9% |
|
|
|
|
| WEP | 2085 | 4.3% |
| UKIP | 2126 | 4.4% | | UKIP | 655 | 1.4% |
|
|
|
|
| UKIP | 1928 | 4.0% |
| SPGB | 180 | 0.4% | | Resp | 315 | 0.7% |
|
|
|
|
| AWP | 528 | 1.1% |
|
|
|
| | Can | 247 | 0.5% |
|
|
|
|
| Resp | 401 | 0.8% |
|
|
|
| | BF | 211 | 0.4% |
|
|
|
|
| BF | 383 | 0.8% |
|
|
|
| | Ind | 123 | 0.3% |
|
|
|
|
| CPA | 305 | 0.6% |
|
|
|
| | BNP | 72 | 0.1% |
|
|
|
|
| HPHL | 187 | 0.4% |
|
|
|
| | OLP | 27 | 0.1% |
|
|
|
|
| BNP | 119 | 0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 84
|
Post by Adam on Nov 25, 2016 18:21:13 GMT
So the WEP are more significant in the constituency than UKIP.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 26, 2016 15:25:28 GMT
Are we not in danger of thinking "traditionally" with this sort of thing, chaps? "Post-truth" politics now you know  Not in Richmond Park. They don't like socialism and they don't like rocking the boat. Lib Dems should act as Europhile Tories. They shouldn't associate themselves with the left next mind the fringe left. They managed to elect the most left wing LibDem MP in Parliament for 8 years |
|
|
|
Post by pepperminttea on Nov 26, 2016 17:54:59 GMT
Not in Richmond Park. They don't like socialism and they don't like rocking the boat. Lib Dems should act as Europhile Tories. They shouldn't associate themselves with the left next mind the fringe left. They managed to elect the most left wing LibDem MP in Parliament for 8 years That was in the Tories darkest hours though when the Lib Dems were actually doing well in national polling and Labour could actually win elections. They were very different times. Plus Richmond become posher over the last 20 years and thus much more right wing (at least economically speaking) and thus much less naturally Lib Dem. If the Lib Dems win it will because they have persuaded Europhile and socially Liberal Tories to vote for them so associating themselves with left wing economic policies is the worst thing they could do in this seat. |
|
Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 84
|
Post by Adam on Nov 26, 2016 18:56:30 GMT
If I were Goldsmith I would make hay out of the Greens endorsement of Olney. Carpet bomb the constituency with leaflets linking her to the Greens left wing policies and stand back and watch 2015 Tory voters come home. That's not the position adopted by Goldsmith himself. He's issued a leaflet boasting of his environmentalist credentials which includes the following (his bold):Clearly he thinks it will help him to have Greens endorsement (even though he hasn't). |
|
|
|
Post by iainbhx on Nov 26, 2016 19:27:09 GMT
I have just been down to Richmond Park for the day. Very busy office, people continuously coming and going and a lot of hard work being done.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Nov 26, 2016 20:24:41 GMT
So the WEP are more significant in the constituency than UKIP. This was also true of the list vote, as Pete Whitehead showed, in the majority of places where the Green Party did well. For the most part in those places, however, it was Labour who were clearly in the lead on the list, constituency and mayoral vote. |
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,039
|
Post by Khunanup on Nov 26, 2016 22:33:30 GMT
Not in Richmond Park. They don't like socialism and they don't like rocking the boat. Lib Dems should act as Europhile Tories. They shouldn't associate themselves with the left next mind the fringe left. They managed to elect the most left wing LibDem MP in Parliament for 8 years No she wasn't, don't be so silly. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 27, 2016 9:13:59 GMT
They managed to elect the most left wing LibDem MP in Parliament for 8 years No she wasn't, don't be so silly. On almost every issue she was well to the left of the average in your party. One of the few I had any time for amongst the overpromoted cracks in the pavement obsessives. |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Nov 27, 2016 9:15:50 GMT
They managed to elect the most left wing LibDem MP in Parliament for 8 years That was in the Tories darkest hours though when the Lib Dems were actually doing well in national polling and Labour could actually win elections. They were very different times. Plus Richmond become posher over the last 20 years and thus much more right wing (at least economically speaking) and thus much less naturally Lib Dem. If the Lib Dems win it will because they have persuaded Europhile and socially Liberal Tories to vote for them so associating themselves with left wing economic policies is the worst thing they could do in this seat. I think their best hope is that people will be irritated by an entirely unnecessary by election and won't bother to vote at all. |
|
Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 84
|
Post by Adam on Nov 27, 2016 10:35:54 GMT
Here's another pro-LibDem leaflet being distributed by a pressure group:   What's the electoral law on this sort of thing? An organisation registers with the Electoral Commission as a "third party" and can then spend up to a certain limit in support of one candidate at an election? Does such spending count towards the candidate's expenses? Surely it can't be unregulated? |
|
rocky
Non-Aligned
Posts: 122 
|
Post by rocky on Nov 27, 2016 10:54:14 GMT
What does the imprint read on that? Not sure legal position.
|
|
Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 84
|
Post by Adam on Nov 27, 2016 11:18:54 GMT
It says:
|
|
|
|
Post by evergreenadam on Nov 27, 2016 11:41:27 GMT
|
|
mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
|
Post by mondialito on Nov 27, 2016 11:48:02 GMT
Time to wheel out the old 'Can't win here' chestnut it seems. |
|
