myth11
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Post by myth11 on Mar 13, 2017 18:29:50 GMT
More demonstrations in Den Haag and most importantly Amsterdam.. this evening. www.telegraaf.nl/tv/nieuws/binnenland/27787359/__Turkse_demonstranten_nemen_Dam_in__.htmlI am not seeing how in the least this is helping Erdogan.. there is rather a feel of Fifth Column about the fact that this group have been in the Netherlands for decades and yet they are pretty clear about where their loyalties lie and in fact project the all too common view from these groups that the government should accommodate to them and their homeland politics. If this doesn't help Wilders I would be very surprised. The actions of recent days have been "in your face" for the average Dutch citizen. Turkish nov 2015 election results for the Netherlands were AKP 78793 69.66% rest 34318 30.34 so do not be shocked if Erdogan wins his ref here. |
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Post by Antiochian on Mar 13, 2017 18:41:40 GMT
More demonstrations in Den Haag and most importantly Amsterdam.. this evening. www.telegraaf.nl/tv/nieuws/binnenland/27787359/__Turkse_demonstranten_nemen_Dam_in__.htmlI am not seeing how in the least this is helping Erdogan.. there is rather a feel of Fifth Column about the fact that this group have been in the Netherlands for decades and yet they are pretty clear about where their loyalties lie and in fact project the all too common view from these groups that the government should accommodate to them and their homeland politics. If this doesn't help Wilders I would be very surprised. The actions of recent days have been "in your face" for the average Dutch citizen. Turkish nov 2015 election results for the Netherlands were AKP 78793 69.66% rest 34318 30.34 so do not be shocked if Erdogan wins his ref here. I am not saying he won't get the votes.. it will be more of a case of "win the battle and lose the war" which is the story of Erdogan over and over again. He doesn't have to keep living in the Netherlands whereas the "Turkish" population do. By the way the Nederlands Central Statistical Office estimates Turks in the country at 395,000 in 2013 so while presuming some are non-voting age, it would seem that turn-out in 2015 was not that great. Some 30% are Alevi and non-religious and some of the Sunni proportion (70%) would be Kurds also.. none of which would be well-disposed to the AKP.. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_in_the_Netherlands |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 13, 2017 19:18:25 GMT
Greens and PVV tied in 2nd place with 13.3% in latest poll (I&O) EenVandaag and Peil are better pollsters. Peil has VVD +3 and PVV +2. A debate between Rutte and Wilders just took place on EenVandaag. I'd say Wilders had the upper hand, but both did relatively well and it was not a decisive victory. |
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Post by overthehill on Mar 13, 2017 19:31:28 GMT
Does anyone know if there is a live results programme in English, what the best website to follow is and/or when the results will start coming in please?
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 13, 2017 20:55:13 GMT
Does anyone know if there is a live results programme in English, what the best website to follow is and/or when the results will start coming in please? Polls close at 10 PM your time. The NOS will have an exit poll almost immediately and will provide prognoses throughout the night. Non-tiny municipalities will start coming in after an hour or so. I'd follow the NOS.nl website if I were you. Don't know of any live results programme in English. |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 13, 2017 21:12:38 GMT
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Mar 13, 2017 22:52:28 GMT
Turkish nov 2015 election results for the Netherlands were AKP 78793 69.66% rest 34318 30.34 so do not be shocked if Erdogan wins his ref here. I am not saying he won't get the votes.. it will be more of a case of "win the battle and lose the war" which is the story of Erdogan over and over again. He doesn't have to keep living in the Netherlands whereas the "Turkish" population do. By the way the Nederlands Central Statistical Office estimates Turks in the country at 395,000 in 2013 so while presuming some are non-voting age, it would seem that turn-out in 2015 was not that great. Some 30% are Alevi and non-religious and some of the Sunni proportion (70%) would be Kurds also.. none of which would be well-disposed to the AKP.. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_in_the_NetherlandsThe problem is the Turkish joe public Sunni population is not seeing Erdogan as a nut case but as a elected leader defending their values. |
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Post by Antiochian on Mar 13, 2017 23:16:08 GMT
I am not saying he won't get the votes.. it will be more of a case of "win the battle and lose the war" which is the story of Erdogan over and over again. He doesn't have to keep living in the Netherlands whereas the "Turkish" population do. By the way the Nederlands Central Statistical Office estimates Turks in the country at 395,000 in 2013 so while presuming some are non-voting age, it would seem that turn-out in 2015 was not that great. Some 30% are Alevi and non-religious and some of the Sunni proportion (70%) would be Kurds also.. none of which would be well-disposed to the AKP.. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_in_the_NetherlandsThe problem is the Turkish joe public Sunni population is not seeing Erdogan as a nut case but as a elected leader defending their values. The Turkish public (at home) have made their bed and must lie in it.. It does not mean that if one is a Sunni Kurd having fled to the Netherlands that you are going to support Erdogan... ditto for Alevis.. People seem to think that the "Turk" they encounter is a putative Erdogan follower. The "Turkish" barber shop in Andover is called "Istanbul" but my conversations with the barbers (and I speak some Turkish) reveals that that they are all Kurds and from nowhere near Istanbul.. I doubt he'll have their vote if they even bother... |
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Post by finsobruce on Mar 14, 2017 11:52:58 GMT
People seem to think that the "Turk" they encounter is a putative Erdogan follower. The "Turkish" barber shop in Andover is called "Istanbul" but my conversations with the barbers (and I speak some Turkish) reveals that that they are all Kurds and from nowhere near Istanbul.. I doubt he'll have their vote if they even bother... There's a similar establishment in our town centre. It actually advertises itself as a 'Kurdish Barber Shop'. pretty much all the barber shops round here now are "Turkish" and yes, a lot of them are Kurds. The same is true for a lot of the shops and restaurants too. |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 14, 2017 13:24:21 GMT
Hmmmm! Going to a Turkish Muslim barber? Why? I still can't face thought of anyone round me with a razor, let alone a Muslim!
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Post by Antiochian on Mar 14, 2017 14:08:32 GMT
Hmmmm! Going to a Turkish Muslim barber? Why? I still can't face thought of anyone round me with a razor, let alone a Muslim! Its not the razor you should be afraid of, but the "burning stick" with which they singe your ears that is hair-raising in so many ways |
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Post by carlton43 on Mar 14, 2017 14:20:11 GMT
Hmmmm! Going to a Turkish Muslim barber? Why? I still can't face thought of anyone round me with a razor, let alone a Muslim! Its not the razor you should be afraid of, but the "burning stick" with which they singe your ears that is hair-raising in so many ways Oh! Often had the singe without any worries but a razor round the neck! That is quite something else. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2017 14:33:54 GMT
Share of supporters by party that are sure to vote (91%-100%).   |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 14, 2017 16:43:08 GMT
I'd posted the last one here already, but not the first one.  I&O's final poll:  Peil's final poll + prognosis:  Ipsos final poll: VVD 29 (+3), CDA 23 (+2), PVV 20 (-3), D66 18 (+1), SP 15 (+2), GL 15 (+1), PvdA 9 (-2), CU 5 (-2), 50Plus 5 (-1), SGP 4 (-1), PvdD 4 (-), DENK 2 (-), FvD 1 (-) Peil tends to overpoll the combined right (and the PVV) the most, I&O tends to underpoll both the combined right and the PVV the most. Right-wing parties at 79 in Peil, at 67 in I&O. Will probably be somewhere between these figures, like the 76 in the Ipsos poll (but Ipsos always overpoll the VVD and underpoll the PVV). Tonight the final debate will take place. |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2017 17:53:56 GMT
I'd posted the last one here already, but not the first one. As on the other boards it wasn't showing, so I reposted it in Freeks version, which works. |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 14, 2017 19:23:54 GMT
Ah. Hope this one works -- the final one. I use the image directly from the Peilingwijzer website. |
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mazuz
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Post by mazuz on Mar 14, 2017 23:32:19 GMT
So it's election day. Polls are open from 7:30 AM until 9 PM across the country except for some train stations: at some train stations polling stations already open right now at midnight, others close early (e.g. 6 PM), and the same goes for some polling stations in some large shops.
NOS will have an exit poll at 9 PM and make prognoses as results come in. The exit polls in 2010 and (more so) in 2012 were accurate but clearly underestimated PVV support (and the same goes for the exit polls for the European Parliament election in 2014). Counting takes place by hand again, so it may take some time before the first municipalities come in, and the first ones that come in are tiny and unrepresentative: these will be the very affluent Arnhem suburb of Rozendaal and some West Frisian Islands.
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Post by Antiochian on Mar 15, 2017 7:44:13 GMT
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Mar 15, 2017 13:47:17 GMT
Greens and PVV tied in 2nd place with 13.3% in latest poll (I&O) You wouldn't know that judging by the BBC news though, any mention of the Greens at home or abroad is frowned upon. |
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iain
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Post by iain on Mar 15, 2017 14:22:16 GMT
Turnout is apparently high - quite possibly back over 80%.
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