mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155 
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Post by mazuz on Feb 11, 2017 16:59:40 GMT
And now Trijntje Oosterhuis's name suddenly makes more sense. Trijntje is a diminutive of Katrijn, from Katharina (or however you want to spell it). However, in her case I'd prefer she go by Lil Train. |
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 11, 2017 17:58:19 GMT
NRC Handelsblad, the Dutch Guardian, today reported extensively about the way DENK uses fake profiles/socks on Facebook and Twitter to silence online critics. NRC has gotten access into the WhatsApp group used by Kuzu, Özturk, Azarkan and the leader of DENK's youth organization, Enes Yigit. The fake profiles use random pictures of Dutch and Belgian people who did not know about this. They also commented negatively on social media activities by Moroccan and Turkish PvdA politicians. In one conversation, Yigit and Azarkan discuss how they will use a "troll account" to comment on Ahmed Marcouch's activities.
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 12, 2017 16:14:27 GMT
The RTL Prime Minister's Debate is probably going to be cancelled after RTL invited five party leaders. Rutte and Wilders had already said they would only take part in the debate if only four participants were invited, as was initially the idea, but RTL wanted Jesse Klaver to take part too (probably to include at least one left-wing party) and now Rutte and Wilders cancelled. A poor choice by RTL in my opinion.
In terms of polling, it appears that the PVV's numbers are slowly but steadily going south, which means the two-horse race scenario becomes more likely. However, in the absence of the important Prime Minister's Debate, the campaigning season and its influence on parties' polling numbers will be less predictable.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2017 21:36:00 GMT
I&O Research poll showing some movement with PVV tanking (presumably mostly losing to VVD), D66 (presumably mostly attracting "soft" VVD voters) and PvdA seemingly getting some voters back from SP.
PVV 20 (-6)
VVD 24 (-1)
D66 20 (+5)
GL 19 (+1)
CDA 16 (+2)
PvdA 14 (+2)
SP 11 (-2)
CU 8 (+1)
50Plus 7 (-2)
A Dutch poster on Atlas forum referred another poll showing voters are primarily dropping from PVV for three reasons:
1. Worrying about Trump's policies and identifying Wilders as a Trump supporter.
2. Believing Wilders can't get anything done because no one wants to be in a coalition with him.
3. Feeling that he offers no solutions to the things he (rightly) criticize.
(no numbers and no link, but seems logical - so reposting)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 15, 2017 22:37:12 GMT
PVV still first in the index after I&O and losing eight seats in the last Kantar poll, but the trend is clear.  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 16, 2017 15:48:48 GMT
That's going to make coalition-building tough again. Would VVD-PvdA-CDA-CU work? Not on numbers but on a common programme.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Feb 16, 2017 22:20:54 GMT
Is the CU not still just a testimonial party? They or the SGP could give outside support to a right-leaning VVD-CDA-D66-50+ minority coalition, but that would be very shaky.
The best the broadly left-wing parties can manage is 68 seats according to that poll. The Dutch left really is in disarray – and in a country with an electoral system that scarcely punishes 'splitters' to boot!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 17, 2017 7:55:07 GMT
Is the CU not still just a testimonial party? They or the SGP could give outside support to a right-leaning VVD-CDA-D66-50+ minority coalition, but that would be very shaky. The best the broadly left-wing parties can manage is 68 seats according to that poll. The Dutch left really is in disarray – and in a country with an electoral system that scarcely punishes 'splitters' to boot! They were originally but they joined in one of the later Balkenende governments. |
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
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Post by Foggy on Feb 17, 2017 17:13:33 GMT
Ah, in that case a 5-way coalition is possible – but if those parties can take votes off the PVV in the next few weeks, a majority coalition might even be feasible with 'only' 4 parties.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Feb 18, 2017 19:10:35 GMT
Certain remarks of Wilders' have attracted a degree of international attention.
Well.
Can't accuse him of dog-whistling, that's for sure!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 19, 2017 8:58:13 GMT
Certain remarks of Wilders' have attracted a degree of international attention. Well. Can't accuse him of dog-whistling, that's for sure! It seems that his statements are getting more shrill and blunt as his poll ratings head further south. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 19, 2017 9:03:20 GMT
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 20, 2017 11:12:31 GMT
Certain remarks of Wilders' have attracted a degree of international attention. Certainly not any national attention though, I knew this only because you said it. We're used to remarks like this. The times when Wilders talking about "Moroccan scum" was headline material are far behind us (and, of course, PvdA politicians talking about "shitty Moroccans" and Moroccans having an "ethnic monopoly on crime" long preceded him). "In England they're still shocked by this" Not next week, but on March 13, two days before the election. And I don't think so. 53% think the country is heading in the wrong direction. It is an opportunity for both candidates. PVV-VVD swing voters may go PVV, but those who disagree and are inclined to vote D66 or CDA may end up voting for Rutte. Wilders has much more to lose from staying away from big debates: next week's Prime Minister's debate (which Rutte cancelled too), but also the Carré debate on March 5th where all the other big parties' leaders will be present, which Wilders decided to skip yesterday. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 4:21:53 GMT
It seems PdvD will be in the first debate that Wilders skipped because the leaders of both SGP and CU refuse to debate on a Sunday and the animal lovers are the next in line to replace Wilders.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 22, 2017 7:40:17 GMT
God love the SGP. I mean, that is the major part of their platform, but God love them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2017 16:31:15 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Feb 22, 2017 16:59:24 GMT
Great numbers for D66 and the CDA as well as Groen Links.
I'd imagine VVD are heartened too.
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 22, 2017 17:36:19 GMT
It is CU who were invited to the debate and declined (though the SGP would doubtlessly have done the same). Based on the polls, the PvdD were next in line.
Parliament will vote on the Association Agreement in ten minutes. A majority of VVD, PvdA, D66 and GroenLinks will vote for it. This will be painful for Rutte in the debates.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 26, 2017 11:05:15 GMT
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mazuz
Conservative
Posts: 155
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Post by mazuz on Feb 27, 2017 22:18:41 GMT
The first debate, in which Wilders and Rutte were absent, took place yesterday. There was not much ideological diversity, with Sybrand Buma (CDA) representing the only right-wing party, but it was an interesting start. Jesse Klaver was clearly nervous but did relatively well, though he hasn't yet become the "King of the Left" and time is running out for him. Pechtold holding relatively similar views and being an extremely apt debater with much more experience certainly doesn't help Klaver here, but at the same time many people who are still with D66 are about to switch to GL and I expect the next debates to benefit Klaver. Asscher sounded very scripted and was weak, I cannot imagine that he convinced anybody. I thought Roemer was surprisingly strong, especially compared to his performances in 2012, but political journalists were more negative (can't help but think there is some pro-Klaver/Pechtold/"realistic left" bias involved here). High point here was that Roemer asked Klaver to rule out governing with the VVD, which Klaver refused to do. Buma was extremely aggressive, perhaps overly so, which was a welcome surprise since his speeches tends to be very dull. I think he may have caused some potential VVD voters who are not locked in yet to consider a CDA vote. Wouldn't be surprised if he hurt the VVD.
Today Klaver said that he didn't like debating four other men and that the next government should have a 50/50 gender balance.
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