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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Oct 21, 2016 14:59:05 GMT
actually that was aimed at Pete, who was after all the recipient of divine providence Fair enough. Certain technical details threw me off there. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 21, 2016 16:51:34 GMT
Well that's a bit sobering. One of the few recent actual election results that backs up what the polls are saying, in fact. I think the polls are right in that we're bumping along the bottom thanks to an unelectable leader and unpopular policies. Most of our policies are not unpopular, they weren't at last year's GE either. Our problems are elsewhere. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 21, 2016 16:58:20 GMT
You make a sweeping statement which was not really backed up by this year's regular elections, and may not be in next year's either. Anyone would think that you've not come across Penddu before  |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 21, 2016 16:59:58 GMT
No particular sign, actually, of worse results in Wales than elsewhere. And no particular sign anywhere of any relationship between Labour local bye performances and the referendum results.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 21, 2016 17:27:47 GMT
carlton43 sorry, perhaps the byelection thread is not the best place to discuss my interpretation of Methodist theology. If we accept that Christ's death was redemptive, once and for all, then we are all saved so there is no need for your interlocuters to have asked you. what they probably meant to say was 'do you beleve that you a) need saving, b) believe that you have been saved and (call me a cynic) c) would you like to join and contribute to our church as a result Happy to totally absolve them from your option 'c'. If we were all redeemed by that act in perpetuity and are all therefore saved, why do I need to be recruited to a church at all? I am saved. We are redeemed. No need for action on my part or for me to give it even a casual thought...........nor indeed by you and others. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 21, 2016 22:48:10 GMT
Bracknall Forest, Central Sandhurst - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 476 | 69.3% | +6.3% | +4.4% | -3.9% | -3.5% | Labour | 211 | 30.7% | +10.5% | +13.6% | +3.9% | +3.5% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -16.7% | -17.9% |
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| Total votes | 687 |
| 25% | 27% | 44% | 46% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~2% / 4½% since 2015 and 3½% / 4% since 2011
Council now 41 Conservative, 1 Labour
Braintree, Bumpstead - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | | Conservative | 350 | 64.6% | +2.7% | UKIP | 84 | 15.5% | -4.1% | Labour | 45 | 8.3% | -10.3% | Liberal Democrat | 40 | 7.4% | from nowhere | Green | 23 | 4.2% | from nowhere | Total votes | 542 |
| 31% |
Swing UKIP to Conservative ~3½% and Labour to Conservative ~6½% since 2015
Council now 43 Conservative 3 Labour, 2 residents, 1 Green
Braintree, Witham North - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 339 | 37.5% | +6.1% | +7.8% | Conservative | 308 | 34.0% | -4.8% | -6.1% | Green | 227 | 25.1% | +4.7% | +3.2% | Liberal Democrat | 31 | 3.4% | -5.9% | -4.9% | Total votes | 905 |
| 29% | 31% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 5½% / 7% since 2015
Council now 43 Conservative, 3 Labour, 2 Residents, 1 Green
Conwy, Abergale Pensarn - Independent gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2014 B | since 2012 | since 2008 | since 2004 | Independent Hunter | 170 | 31.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Smith | 146 | 27.1% | +5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 136 | 25.2% | -0.7% | -29.9% | -13.3% | -21.5% | Conservative | 87 | 16.1% | +7.4% | -3.5% | -27.8% | -9.8% | UKIP |
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| -20.9% |
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| -10.7% | -25.2% | -17.5% | -27.3% | No Description |
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| -12.0% |
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| Total votes | 539 |
| 87% | 73% | 74% | 92% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 15 Conwy First Independent, 13 Conservative, 12 Plaid Cymru, 10 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
East Riding of Yorkshire, St Mary's - Liberal Democrat gain from ConservativeParty | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 1,497 | 40.0% | +28.3% | +28.2% | +22.1% | +25.9% | Conservative | 947 | 25.3% | -4.3% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -4.4% | Labour | 689 | 18.4% | +0.0% | +0.4% | -0.1% | -1.2% | Beverley | 364 | 9.7% | -1.7% | -1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 141 | 3.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 101 | 2.7% | -10.8% | -12.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -8.9% | -9.7% | -11.8% | -12.9% | Previous Independents |
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| -6.4% | -5.6% | -21.7% | -23.7% | Total votes | 3,739 |
| 36% | 39% | 47% | 51% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~16% since 2015 and ~13½% / 15% since 2011
Council now 48 Conservative, 6 Labour, 6 Independent, 3 Liberal Democrat, 3 UKIP, 1 Independent Conservative
Kettering, Rothwell - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average | Conservative | 700 | 48.3% | +10.6% | +8.3% | +11.9% | +10.2% | Labour | 498 | 34.4% | -6.7% | -2.1% | -1.2% | +2.5% | UKIP | 108 | 7.5% | -8.5% | -11.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 75 | 5.2% | +0.0% | +0.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -3.0% | -3.5% | Independent |
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| -20.4% | -21.8% | Total votes | 1,448 |
| 63% * | 73% * | 48% | 51% |
Deferred election Swing Labour to Conservative ~8½% / 5¼% since 2015 and 6½% / 3¾% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 7 labour, 3 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 22, 2016 0:04:52 GMT
Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Heacham - Independent gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Independent Parish | 400 | 37.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 342 | 32.2% | -38.9% | -36.6% | -36.0% | 34.6% | Liberal Democrat | 83 | 7.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 83 | 7.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Press | 79 | 7.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 74 | 7.0% | -21.9% | -24.2% | -24.8% | -26.2% | Total votes | 1,061 |
| 42% | 47% | 61% | 65% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 50 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Independent
Medway, Strood South - Conservative gain from UKIP
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 724 | 38.4% | +3.4% | +4.0% | -3.5% | -2.1% | Labour | 521 | 27.7% | +3.4% | +1.9% | -11.2% | -12.2% | UKIP | 480 | 25.5% | -13.2% | -11.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 74 | 3.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 62 | 3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.2% | -1.9% | English Democrat | 23 | 1.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -12.4% | -13.2% | TUSC |
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| -2.2% | -2.4% |
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| Total votes | 1,884 |
| 29% | 32% | 50% | 53% |
Swing UKIP to Conservative ~8% since 2015 and Labour to Conservative ~4% / 5% since 2011
Council now 37 Conservative, 15 Labour, 2 UKIP, 1 Independent
Middlesbrough, Central - Labour hold
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Labour | 732 | 72.9% | +17.4% | +22.8% | Independent | 149 | 14.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 70 | 7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 53 | 5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Previous Independents |
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| -28.6% | -31.7% | UKIP |
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| -15.9% | -18.2% | Total votes | 1,004 |
| 40% | 46% |
Swing not meaningful
Council now 32 Labour, 10 Independent, 4 Conservative
Neath Port Talbot, Blaengwrach - Plaid Cymru gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2008 | since 2004 | | Plaid Cymru | 225 | 48.0% | +3.6% | +1.2% | -16.8% | Labour | 143 | 30.5% | -25.1% | -22.7% | -4.7% | Independent | 58 | 12.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 39 | 8.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 4 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 469 |
| 72% | 58% | 70% |
Swing Labour to Plaid Cymru ~14% since 2012 and ~12% since 2008 but Plaid Cymru to Labour 6% since 2004
Council now 50 Labour, 9 Plaid Cymru, 4 Independent Democrats, 1 Independent
St Albans, Clarence - Liberal Democrat hold
| Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Liberal Democrat | 916 | 56.9% | +6.0% | +17.7% | +24.4% | +14.4% | Conservative | 386 | 24.0% | +2.8% | -9.6% | -0.6% | +0.1% | Labour | 193 | 12.0% | -5.2% | -4.7% | -8.5% | -6.5% | Green | 98 | 6.1% | -3.7% | -3.7% | -9.5% | -9.0% | UKIP | 16 | 1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -5.2% | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.6% |
| Total votes | 1,609 |
| 70% | 39% | 68% | 78% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~1½% since 2016, ~13½% since 2015, ~12½% since 2014 and ~7¼% since 2012
Council now 31 Conservative, 17 Liberal Democrat, 7 Labour, 2 Independent
Weymouth & Portland, Wey Valley - Conservative hold
Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | Conservative | 475 | 62.3% | +0.4% | +7.6% | -6.8% | +8.2% | Liberal Democrat | 118 | 15.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 96 | 12.6% | -9.8% | from nowhere | -8.4% | -20.3% | Green | 74 | 9.7% | -6.1% | -35.7% | -0.2% | -3.4% | Total votes | 763 |
| 36% | 66% | 51% | 36% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 14 Conservative, 12 Labour, 6 Liberal Democrat, 2 Independent, 1 Green, 1 UKIP
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627 
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 22, 2016 7:11:42 GMT
Well that's a bit sobering. One of the few recent actual election results that backs up what the polls are saying, in fact. I think the polls are right in that we're bumping along the bottom thanks to an unelectable leader and unpopular policies. However, I think that they are overstating the Tories at the expense of the LibDems and minor parties. Rothwell is typical of "small town England", where I think we will perform poorly |
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 22, 2016 13:14:45 GMT
The recent by-elections in Wales (sorry but that is my interest) shows that Labour is being kicked at the moment...by whoever is in best place to do so. Corbyn is unelectable in one of the Labour heartlands. Labour's share in one of the contests this week was basically unchanged from the previous by-election two years ago. You make a sweeping statement which was not really backed up by this year's regular elections, and may not be in next year's either. The Labour Party won only one of the four wards it was defending this week. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2016 13:17:04 GMT
Yes I know, the discussion was Wales specific.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 22, 2016 13:23:48 GMT
current state of play since May main cycle GAIN(LOSS) LD 21 Lab 8 (16) Con 7 (21) UKIP 3 (5) PC 2 SNP 2 (3) Grn 1 Oth 8 (7) LD +21 PC +2 GRN +1 OTH +1 SNP -1 UKIP -2 LAB -8 CON -14 That is narrow but very useful as an antidote to Westminster by-elections and duff polls. Those net results look to be a pretty good reflection on the reality for all parties except Conservatives and LDs where there is an element of distortion as to the scale. But the trends there are about what it feels like for the onset of mid term. The Conservatives will outperform on polls over by-elections and the LDs the reverse. The stark truth is that the 2020 GE reality will show Conservatives outperforming Labour by far more than in 2015, the LDs making a useful but far from 'full' recovery and frankly the others not mattering much except for UKIP. And UKIP will probably matter as to the differential pull on the votes of LDs, Conservatives and Labour, rather than from winning any seats. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 22, 2016 18:55:11 GMT
Has it been noted that the new LD councillor in Yorkshire is named Denis Healy?
I am informed.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 22, 2016 21:19:15 GMT
Yes, silly billy.
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Post by mrhell on Oct 22, 2016 22:05:58 GMT
You beauty! Hope everyone else enjoys their 10 faults. (Commiserations to David Hancock who would have made an excellent cllr etc etc)
members in opposition to an officially endorsed
Labour Party candidate or the support for such candidature. The NCC shall not have regard to the mere holding or expression of beliefs and opinions. I must respectfully draw to M'Lud's attention that Mr Boothroyd only made his comment after the election and therefore the person in question was no longer a candidate. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 23, 2016 10:52:27 GMT
I think the polls are right in that we're bumping along the bottom thanks to an unelectable leader and unpopular policies. However, I think that they are overstating the Tories at the expense of the LibDems and minor parties. Rothwell is typical of "small town England", where I think we will perform poorly But if the political attitudes are as suggested then I wouldn't expect any other. No centre-left party could adopt Ukip style social conservatism and retain a shred of credibility. |
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Post by Penddu on Oct 23, 2016 11:11:00 GMT
No particular sign, actually, of worse results in Wales than elsewhere. And no particular sign anywhere of any relationship between Labour local bye performances and the referendum results. My comment was about Wales - but may be equally true in England - i just dont follow the results there as closely. There are differences in that in Wales Plaid can take seats from Labour and there is very limited chance of UKIP taking seats unlike in England. In the last 5 Welsh by elections Labour have lost 3 seats to Plaid, Independent and LibDem. Labour have retained 2 seats - one of them fairly comfortably but with a 20% swing from Lab to Plaid in the other. If Labour supporters are comfortable with that situation then carry on and dont panic. Next challenge Grangetown.... |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 23, 2016 18:18:46 GMT
Rothwell is typical of "small town England", where I think we will perform poorly But if the political attitudes are as suggested then I wouldn't expect any other. No centre-left party could adopt Ukip style social conservatism and retain a shred of credibility. We used to be able to win this ward ( as well as nearby Desborough) back in the dark old Blair years 😕 |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 23, 2016 18:23:42 GMT
But if the political attitudes are as suggested then I wouldn't expect any other. No centre-left party could adopt Ukip style social conservatism and retain a shred of credibility. We used to be able to win this ward ( as well as nearby Desborough) back in the dark old Blair years 😕 Those days of enthusiastic positivity where immigration was never mentioned? Put a Blair equivalent back in charge with the New Labour line - strongly pro immigration and globalisation, socially liberal - and the results would be even worse. I don't think there is really any answer until the public mood changes on some of these issues. We could of course adopt social conservatism and just lose other voters to the Greens and the LibDems. Or recognise that majoritarian politics is not the way forward and back electoral reform. ... |
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Rural Radical
Labour
Now living in a Labour held ward at Borough level for the first time in many years
Posts: 1,627
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Post by Rural Radical on Oct 23, 2016 18:30:04 GMT
We used to be able to win this ward ( as well as nearby Desborough) back in the dark old Blair years 😕 Those days of enthusiastic positivity where immigration was never mentioned? Put a Blair equivalent back in charge with the New Labour line - strongly pro immigration and globalisation, socially liberal - and the results would be even worse. I don't think there is really any answer until the public mood changes on some of these issues. We could of course adopt social conservatism and just lose other voters to the Greens and the LibDems. Or recognise that majoritarian politics is not the way forward and back electoral reform. ... We have been losing ground in small Midlands towns like this for 10 years |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 23, 2016 18:36:32 GMT
Those days of enthusiastic positivity where immigration was never mentioned? Put a Blair equivalent back in charge with the New Labour line - strongly pro immigration and globalisation, socially liberal - and the results would be even worse. I don't think there is really any answer until the public mood changes on some of these issues. We could of course adopt social conservatism and just lose other voters to the Greens and the LibDems. Or recognise that majoritarian politics is not the way forward and back electoral reform. ... We have been losing ground in small Midlands towns like this for 10 years Which coincides exactly with the growth of anti immigration sentiment. And we just aren't ever going to be in a position to win voters who prioritise that issue and favour Ukip style solutions. Frankly I don't wish to be. I hope that's one principle we could all agree with and I was pleased that few were impressed by Reeves or Kinnocks recent grandstanding |
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