By-elections - October 20th

[Penddu]

As nobody else has started a thread for this weeks byelections, i thought I would start one:

With a look at the Blaengwrach contest in Neath Port Talbot.

This seat was held by Labour in 2012 with Labour polling 362 against Plaid on 290. Labour previously held the seat in 2008 but it was won by Plaid in 2004, and all contests were straight Labour v Plaid fights.

This year around there are 5 candidates.

Labour's Sarah Ann Price will be defending her predecessors seat
Plaid's candidate will be Carolyn Edwards who previously held the seat in 2004-2008
UKIP have another local candidate in Richard Pritchard
Conservatives have an outsider with the brilliant name of Dai Crackerjack (ok... Peter Damien Crocker-Jacques) - who competed in Assembly elections in Carmarthen East.
One Independent standing - Thomas John Evans.

If there were only the usual two candidates standing, then I would call this a simple Plaid win. But the Independent who is well respected locally might confuse things a bit.

But overall I predict a narrow Plaid win.

And to repeat my previously used joke, i want a Conservative winner, as i want to hear the Returning Officer say.....its Friday....its 5 o'clock....and its Crackerjack!  ( sorry ... I'll get my coat)

[uhurasmazda]

*sharp intake of breath from the rest of the board*

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2016 1:35:30 GMT Penddu said:

As nobody else has started a thread for this weeks byelections, i thought I would start one:

maxque typically starts a new thread on the week's byelections on the Tueday (that for the 13th was started on the 11th for example) so would expect he will do so later today. Given that this is just a discussion about one of the twelve by-elections taking place, perhaps you could change the title to reflect that (Blaengwrach by-election I suppose, if it really needs its own thread).

[Penddu]

Ah. . I was waiting for the thread.... I will delete my thread and add comment to new thread when up.

[MeirionGwril]

Don't be ground down, Penddu, by the UK establishment!

[AdminSTB]

Oct 18, 2016 7:15:31 GMT Penddu said:

Ah. . I was waiting for the thread.... I will delete my thread and add comment to new thread when up.

You can't delete threads unless you're the Administrator or a Global Moderator. I've taken the liberty of changing the thread title myself.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2016 8:49:36 GMT AdminSTB said:

Oct 18, 2016 7:15:31 GMT Penddu said:

Ah. . I was waiting for the thread.... I will delete my thread and add comment to new thread when up.

You can't delete threads unless you're the Administrator or a Global Moderator. I've taken the liberty of changing the thread title myself.

It doesn't appear so

[AdminSTB]

Oct 18, 2016 9:22:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Oct 18, 2016 8:49:36 GMT AdminSTB said:

You can't delete threads unless you're the Administrator or a Global Moderator. I've taken the liberty of changing the thread title myself.

It doesn't appear so

What do you mean?

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 18, 2016 9:39:24 GMT AdminSTB said:

Oct 18, 2016 9:22:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

It doesn't appear so

What do you mean?

[AdminSTB]

I can amend the thread title of any thread, even if it isn't one I created. Penddu had called it Blaengwrach by-election or something like that.

[Penddu]

I changed title if my original thread...or so I thought...but not actually changed..

I blame Nigel Farage. ..

[Pete Whitehead]

It sounds like you changed it to Blaengwrach by-election and Swan changed it back to By elections October 20th

[Penddu]

It is an anti-Welsh conspiracy.....

[Crimson King]

to be fair, we do need a discussion of Welsh byes, in Welsh

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Is-Etholiadau yn Gymru, yn Gymraeg? Iechyd da!

[Foggy]

Oct 18, 2016 23:45:28 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Is-Etholiadau yn Gymru, yn Gymraeg? Iechyd da!

*yng Nghymru?

[Penddu]

Oct 19, 2016 4:10:45 GMT Foggy said:

Oct 18, 2016 23:45:28 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Is-Etholiadau yn Gymru, yn Gymraeg? Iechyd da!

*yng Nghymru?

Yng Nghymraeg! Wrth gwrs...

[maxque]

Central Sandhurst - Bracknell Forest UA - Phillip King (Conservative) resigned. He was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Con 1717/1585, Lab 552/321, LD 456
2011: Con 1131/1083, Lab 415/412
2007: Con 862/839, Grn 340, Lab 260, UKIP 169
2003: Con 631/548, LD 335, Lab 270, UKIP 190, Grn 177

Anne Brunton (Labour Party Candidate)
Gaby Kennedy (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Bumpstead - Braintree DC - Robert Bolton (Conservative) resigned due to moving out of the district. He was a councillor since 1991, representing Upper Coyne before 2015 and was the Chair of the Halstead Area Committee.

2015: Con 1082, UKIP 343, Lab 325

Jenny Bishop (Green Party Candidate)
Steve Bolter (Liberal Democrats)
Bill Edwards (Labour Party)
Diana Garrod (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Debbie Shaw (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Witham North - Braintree DC - Chris Bailey (Conservative) resigned to launch a business with his wife. He was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Con 1227/1140, Lab 992/756, Grn 645, LD 295/198

Phil Barlow (Labour Party)
Lorne Campbell (Conservative Party Candidate)
Mark Scott (Liberal Democrats)
Michelle Weeks (Green Party Candidate)

Abergele Pensarn - Conwy - Rick Stubbs (Labour) resigned due to ill health. He was the councillor elected at the 2014 by-election.

Sept 2014 by: Lab 160, Ind 134/75/56/10, UKIP 129, Con 54
2012: Lab 407, Ind 186, Con 145
2008: Con 322, Lab 282, Ind 128
2004: Lab 274, Ind 160, Con 152

David Hancock (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Alan Hunter (Independent / Annibynnol)
Bernice McLoughlin (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate / Ymgeisydd Plaid Geidwadol Cymru)
Michael Smith (Independent)

St Mary's - East Riding of Yorkshire UA - Irene Charis (Conservative) died. She was a councillor since 2011 and was the first black councillor ever elected for the East Riding.

2015: Con 3069/2721/2456, Lab 1910/1669/1560, UKIP 1399, LD 1215/1124/1039, Beverley Party 1179/998/978, Grn 917, Ind 660/393
2011: Con 2416/2362/1785, Ind 1741, Lab 1486/1458/1399, LD 1436/870/808, Grn 947
2007: LD 1760/1165/888, Con 1668/1546/1369, Ind 1548/1079/656/585, Lab 701/693/663, Grn 520
2003: Ind 1904/1764, LD 1496/1117/876, Con 1303/1119/1009, Lab 1023/995/918

Roy Begg (Conservative Party Candidate)
Chris Harrod (Independent)
Denis Healy (Liberal Democrats)
John Kitchener (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Margaret Pinder (Labour Party)
Bea Willar (The Beverley Party)

Rothwell - Kettering BC - Alan Mills (Labour) died. He was a district councillor since 2011 and a town councillor since 2007.

June 2015 countermandered election: Lab 951/623/614, Con 873/777771, UKIP 370, Grn 119/89/82
2011: Con 1103/1079/1052, Lab 1077/847/778, Ind 616, LD 230
2007: Con 1293/1257/1173, Lab 1010/950/886

Malcolm Adcock (Liberal Democrat)
Cedwien Brown (Conservative Party Candidate)
Kathleen Harris (Labour and Co-operative Party)
Stevie Jones (Green Party)
Sam Watts (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Heacham - King's Lynn & West Norfolk BC - Peter Colvin (Conservative) resigned just before admitting and being convinced for drunk driving for the third time (he was more than three times over the limit and crashed into a field). He was a councillor since 2015 and the chair of the Heacham parish council.

2015: Con 1817/1313, Lab 736/679
2011: Con 1181/1007, Lab 550/538
2007: Con 1024/993, Ind 516, Lab 397
Feb 2004 by: Con 852, Lab 590, Ind 487
2003: Ind 1379/1365, Con 474/379, Lab 421/387

Rob Colwell (Liberal Democrats)
Simon Eyre (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Debbie Le May (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Terry Parish (Independent)
Michael Press (Independent)
Edward Robb (Labour Party)

Strood South - Medway UA - Catriona Brown-Reckless (UKIP) resigned, most likely to follow her husband Mark Reckless AM to Wales. She was a councillor since 2015 and the deputy leader of the UKIP group.

2015: UKIP 2527/2203/1898, Con 2289/2085/1734, Lab 1583/1576/1411, TUSC 141
2011: Con 1576/1412/1332, Lab 1459/1395/1388, ED 513, LD 207/175/170
2007: Con 1578/1487/1484, Lab 1395/1391/1338
2003: Lab 1094/992/964, Con 1070/1033/1020, LD 305/265/216, UKIP 135

Isabelle Cherry (Liberal Democrats)
Stephen Dyke (Green Party - Say No To Racism)
Isaac Igwe (Labour Party)
Josie Iles (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Mike Russell (English Democrats - "Putting England First!")
Karl Weller (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

Central - Middlesbrough UA - Ansab Shan (Labour) resigned to take a job with the Crown Prosecution Service. He was a councillor since 2015.

2015: Lab 1382/946/944, Ind 713/680/678, UKIP 395

Ron Armstrong (Conservative Party Candidate)
Dale Clark (Independent)
Elliott Sabin-Motson (Liberal Democrats)
Matthew Storey (Labour Party)

Blaengwrach - Neath Port Talbot - Alf Siddley (Labour) died. He was a councillor since 2008.

2012: Lab 363, PC 290
2008: Lab 432, PC 380
2004: PC 436, Lab 237

Peter Crocker-Jaques (Welsh Conservatives / Ceidwadwyr Cymreig)
Carolyn Edwards (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales)
Thomas Evans (Independent)
Sarah Price (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru)
Richard Pritchard (UKIP Wales / UKIP Cymru)

Clarence - St Albans BC - Sam Rowlands (Liberal Democrat) resigned for personal reasons. He was a councillor since 2015.
2015-2019 term

2016: LD 1178, Con 490, Lab 397, Grn 226, TUSC 23
2015: LD 1606, Con 1375, Lab 683, Grn 399, TUSC 28
2014: LD 764, Con 579, Lab 483, Grn 367, UKIP 145, TUSC 14
2012: LD 880, Con 494, Lab 383, Grn 312
2011: LD 1021, Con 899, Lab 551, Grn 267
2010: LD 1807, Con 1115, Lab 556, Grn 297
2008: LD 979, Con 629, Grn 237, Lab 211
2007: LD 1070, Con 433, Grn 255, Lab 229
2006: LD 918, Con 596, Lab 339, Grn 298
2004: LD 985, Con 514, Lab 416, Grn 180
2003: LD 1315, Lab 356, Con 343
2002: LD 1095, Lab 423, Con 331

Keith Cotton (Green Party)
David Dickson (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Ellie Hudspith (Liberal Democrats)
Liz Mills (Labour Party)
Michael Roth (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Wey Valley - Weymouth and Portland BC - Cory Russell (Conservative) resigned. He was a councillor since 2014.
2014-2018 term

2015: Con 1326, Lab 480, Grn 339
2014: Con 630, Grn 523
2011: Con 1038, Lab 316, Grn 149
2010: Con 1139, Lab 693, Grn 275
2007: Con 799, Lab 391, Grn 98
2006: Con 664, Lab 418, Grn 154
Oct 2004 by: Con 497, Lab 408, LD 299
2004: Con 658/656, Lab 500/469, LD 365

James Askew (Green Party)
Tony Ferrari (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Grafton Straker (Labour Party Candidate)
Robin Vaughan (Liberal Democrat)

[Foggy]

Oct 19, 2016 5:09:33 GMT maxque said:

St Mary's - East Riding of Yorkshire UA - Irene Charis (Conservative) died. He was a councillor since 2011 and was the first black councillor ever elected for the East Riding.

First David, now you within the space of 24 hours! This modern, politically correct fashion for using male personal pronouns as catch-all gender-neutral terms is becoming too widespread for my liking.

A quick Google search suggests you got the ethnicity right, though.

[Penddu]

In the Abergele Pensarn seat I am surprised that there is no UKIP candidate as they performed very well last time out and it could have been winnable for them.

But I predict an Independent gain.