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Post by mick745 on May 8, 2020 9:51:50 GMT
How good was the exit poll in 2010?
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 8, 2020 10:11:37 GMT
How good was the exit poll in 2010? Very! The initial projection was Con 307,Lab 255,Lib Dem 59,Oth 29(result 307/258/57/28) |
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 8, 2020 14:34:15 GMT
Re-watching some of it, it's not quite as bad as I remembered. Maybe I was so pissed off with the boat party at the time that it clouded my perception.
1966 seems to be one that's largely neglected in terms of repeats.
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 8, 2020 14:45:04 GMT
Re-watching some of it, it's not quite as bad as I remembered. Maybe I was so pissed off with the boat party at the time that it clouded my perception. 1966 seems to be one that's largely neglected in terms of repeats. It does. I do hope 1970 is shown next month. 2001 and 2005 would be worth seeing again too. Still makes me long to see ITN and Sky News..oh well! |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 8, 2020 14:48:02 GMT
How good was the exit poll in 2010? Though there was much consternation on the BBC's website that there were no vote shares given out-you can still view the comments |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2020 15:11:40 GMT
How good was the exit poll in 2010? Though there was much consternation on the BBC's website that there were no vote shares given out-you can still view the comments This perhaps explains the consternation (read some of his subsequent Tweets for more): |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 8, 2020 15:26:19 GMT
Though there was much consternation on the BBC's website that there were no vote shares given out-you can still view the comments This perhaps explains the consternation (read some of his subsequent Tweets for more): Thank you! There were a few irate viewer's comments about the omission-I do miss vote shares being broadcast though can understand that seats are the key thing. Mind you there were no forecast shares on air in some earlier elections(BBC 79,ITN Oct 74,BBC 1992). As I said in an earlier post bar BBC in 1997( I exclude Sky in 1997 ,2001,2005) no channel has omitted (pre result) seat forecasts since they became the norm in Oct 74-i still think they chickened out that year given their forecast was perfectly acceptable in terms of margin of error. |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 8, 2020 15:36:25 GMT
This perhaps explains the consternation (read some of his subsequent Tweets for more): Thank you! There were a few irate viewer's comments about the omission-I do miss vote shares being broadcast though can understand that seats are the key thing. Mind you there were no forecast shares on air in some earlier elections(BBC 79,ITN Oct 74,BBC 1992). As I said in an earlier post bar BBC in 1997( I exclude Sky in 1997 ,2001,2005) no channel has omitted (pre result) seat forecasts since they became the norm in Oct 74-i still think they chickened out that year given their forecast was perfectly acceptable in terms of margin of error. I can’t remember 1983, but I’m fairly sure they didn’t have an exit poll in 1979, they had just polled two or three key seats. If you watch the reruns McKenzie, and to some degree Butler, were utterly contemptuous of opinion polling, and actually took great pleasure pointing out when they were wrong. |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 8, 2020 15:51:38 GMT
Thank you! There were a few irate viewer's comments about the omission-I do miss vote shares being broadcast though can understand that seats are the key thing. Mind you there were no forecast shares on air in some earlier elections(BBC 79,ITN Oct 74,BBC 1992). As I said in an earlier post bar BBC in 1997( I exclude Sky in 1997 ,2001,2005) no channel has omitted (pre result) seat forecasts since they became the norm in Oct 74-i still think they chickened out that year given their forecast was perfectly acceptable in terms of margin of error. I can’t remember 1983, but I’m fairly sure they didn’t have an exit poll in 1979, they had just polled two or three key seats. If you watch the reruns McKenzie, and to some degree Butler, were utterly contemptuous of opinion polling, and actually took great pleasure pointing out when they were wrong. As I mentioned in the 'Interesting electoral facts' thread in 1983 did a vote and seat forecasts based on a last minute Gallup poll plus ITN did a Harris exit poll with seats & shares.You're right though ITN had a vote and seat exit poll in 1979 BBC's seat forecast given at 10pm was based on information from the final poll of polls. They did exit poll 2 seats. Separately they did a last minute Gallup poll but didn't broadcast the shares from it but on the day after polling they broadcast the results of a number of questions from the survey. I agree about Butler and Mckenzie and thought they were harsh given how close the polls were in 1979 |
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Post by johnloony on May 9, 2020 11:24:33 GMT
On Twitter, Harry Hayfield said that the 2010 results programme made a mistake in saying that Manchester Central was gained by an Independent, and that Lib Dems won Manchester Withington (a bit like the Angus South mistake in 1979). I don't remember seeing that before. Is there a time reference on the broadcast where I can find it? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 9, 2020 11:29:39 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2020 11:50:15 GMT
Oh: Far from a shortage of election repeats we seem to be having a surfeit of them. Is it a case of too much of a good thing I ask?! All our Christmases coming at once. |
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Post by casualobserver on May 9, 2020 19:43:06 GMT
Really enjoying the 1959 election results replay.
Easy to forget just how much election programmes have improved
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Post by casualobserver on May 9, 2020 21:11:43 GMT
Surprising to hear Richard Dimbleby mispronouncing, inter alia, Erith, Cheetham, Gillingham, Blackley.
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 9, 2020 21:21:10 GMT
On Twitter, Harry Hayfield said that the 2010 results programme made a mistake in saying that Manchester Central was gained by an Independent, and that Lib Dems won Manchester Withington (a bit like the Angus South mistake in 1979). I don't remember seeing that before. Is there a time reference on the broadcast where I can find it? The offending graphic Attachments:
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2020 21:26:24 GMT
What was interesting for me watching 2010 again was watching the Day 2 coverage (I would have missed that first time around due to work)
Especially when it became clear that it would be a hung parliament and the horse-trading was about to get underway.
Several moderately senior Labour figures were quite open in saying that "The Tories would never offer the LDs a vote on PR, and that Labour therefore held the trump card and would definitely offer them that (despite Brown being generally a FPTP wallah) - one was Jonathan Powell I can remember. It was put across by several figures at a time when the usual steer would be" let's sleep on it, discussions will begin soon on all kinds of options" etc, which made me feel that thegreen light had been given to put that directly on the table... begs the question, what happened next?!
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Post by 🏴☠️ Neath West 🏴☠️ on May 9, 2020 21:28:13 GMT
On Twitter, Harry Hayfield said that the 2010 results programme made a mistake in saying that Manchester Central was gained by an Independent, and that Lib Dems won Manchester Withington (a bit like the Angus South mistake in 1979). I don't remember seeing that before. Is there a time reference on the broadcast where I can find it? Isn't it a bit late to be submitting an election petition now? ;-) |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 10, 2020 14:39:04 GMT
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on May 10, 2020 14:40:38 GMT
Article above on the computer forecasts done for The Guardian on election night 1959-see in particular the 3rd page of the article(showing as 197)
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Harry Hayfield
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Post by Harry Hayfield on May 10, 2020 14:52:28 GMT
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