Ugly Maps - Gerrymandering

[londonseal80]

Suggested Ward Names.

Putney and Wimbledon Common
Battersea North and Vauxhall
Battersea South and Central Wandsworth
Brixton
Streatham and Clapham
Morden

[greenhert]

Those names sound good to me, although "Wandsworth Central" does not contain that much from the old borough of Battersea. That said it is relatively similar to the Battersea South seat of 1974-1983.

[tiberius]

Norfolk, split in 4.

[jluk234]

I made this a while ago.

[greenchristian]

Mar 21, 2018 23:48:02 GMT jluk234 said:

I made this a while ago.

Where is this a map of?

[beastofbedfordshire]

Mar 22, 2018 11:21:10 GMT greenchristian said:

Mar 21, 2018 23:48:02 GMT jluk234 said:

I made this a while ago.

Where is this a map of?

Oxfordshire

[YL]

Mar 21, 2018 23:48:02 GMT jluk234 said:

I made this a while ago.

Fortunately we don't have US Republicans drawing our boundaries!

Can you unpack Oxford East to gerrymander two Labour seats in Oxfordshire in 2017?

[jluk234]

Mar 22, 2018 12:12:07 GMT YL said:

Mar 21, 2018 23:48:02 GMT jluk234 said:

I made this a while ago.

Fortunately we don't have US Republicans drawing our boundaries!

Can you unpack Oxford East to gerrymander two Labour seats in Oxfordshire in 2017?

I doubt it.

[John Chanin]

You can easily gerrymander 2 Labour seats. Not only is the majority in Oxford East over 20,000, giving plenty of scope to add rural wards, while movimg Labour wards into Oxford West, but the Liberal vote in West contains quite a lot of Labour supporters who are voting Liberal to keep the Conservatives out.

[Deleted]

Two Labour seats in Oxfordshire:



Oxford West

Lab: 19,246
Con: 18,843
Lib: 18,689

As pointed out earlier, a lot of Liberal Democrat voters in general elections are Labour voters trying to stop the Tories, so the Labour majority would likely be slightly larger.

Oxford East

Lab: 26,944
Con: 19,075

Three wards in Banbury voted Labour, hence the attempt to extend the constituency that far. Had I thought about it more, I would have transferred more City wards to Oxford West and Oxford East would have had more of Banbury's wards, thus making them both safer.

[Deleted]

Kinda like this...

[robbienicoll]

Thought I'd do something fun for my 100th post! This is an attempt at an SNP gerrymander in the North East of Scotland. There are two pictures, but I can only upload one at a time, so will cover Angus and Dundee in the next post. Attachment opens in full screen at the bottom.



1. Moray East, Banff and Buchan Coast (orange) (Buckie; Keith and Cullen; Banff and District; Troup; Fraserburgh and District; Peterhead North and Rattray; Peterhead South and Cruden; Ellon and District)

Slightly cheated here as Moray isn't in the NE, but I'll look to do the whole map at some point so there's scope for a packed Conservative constituency including their stronger areas in the west of Moray. Banff and Buchan voted Conservative over SNP by 8.9%, but voted in favour of both Scottish independence and Brexit, so clearly a volatile constituency. There are two major changes, the most obvious of which adds in the staunch SNP areas of eastern Moray. The other is to swap out both Central Buchan and Turriff for Ellon and District, which gives the impression of a more obvious gerrymander (and complies with rules around constituency size). Ellon had one of the highest SNP votes in the Gordon constituency and introduces a more significant LD vote to siphon ~2% from the Conservatives, although I may revisit this and see whether Central Buchan would be a better fit. I am confident that this would have returned an SNP MP but would have been very marginal (3 figure majority).

2. Gordon and Formartine (light blue) (Central Buchan; Turriff and District; West Garioch; East Garioch; Inverurie and District; Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford; Mid Formartine)

Safe Conservative, only made slightly competitive by Central Buchan.

3. Aberdeen North and East (green) (Dyce/Bucksburn/Danestone; Bridge of Don; Tillydrone/Seaton/Old Aberdeen; George St/Harbour; Torry/Ferryhill; Kincorth/Loirston)

All wards went in favour of the SNP in the local elections, so an SNP seat although not necessarily safer than the current Aberdeen North due to the removal of Northfield and bringing in elements of Aberdeen South.

4. Aberdeen South West (pink) (Kingswells/Sheddocksley/Summerhill; Northfield; Hilton/Stockethill; Hazlehead/Ashley/Queens Cross; Midstocket/Rosemount; Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee; Lower Deeside)

Ultra-tight marginal due to inclusion of Northfield (weaker for the Conservatives than every ward in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire bar one) and Hilton. Would come down to how much the LD vote held up.

5. West Aberdeenshire and Mid-Kincardine (blue) (Westhill and District; Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside; Banchory and Mid Deeside; North Kincardine; Stonehaven and Lower Deeside; Blairgowrie and Glens)

Again, slightly cheating by including Blairgowrie but same disclaimer as before. Easy Conservative win, probably stronger than the revised Gordon boundaries. Only caveat is that these areas saw the highest LD votes in the locals which may siphon off some of the blue vote. 


Part 2 coming soon!


        

Attachments:

[Deleted]

Mar 31, 2018 16:41:05 GMT robbienicoll said:

4. Aberdeen South West (pink) (Kingswells/Sheddocksley/Summerhill; Northfield; Hilton/Stockethill; Hazlehead/Ashley/Queens Cross; Midstocket/Rosemount; Airyhall/Broomhill/Garthdee; Lower Deeside)

Ultra-tight marginal due to inclusion of Northfield (weaker for the Conservatives than every ward in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire bar one) and Hilton. Would come down to how much the LD vote held up.

Electoral calcuclus has a Tory majority of 1,438 over the SNP, but 10,707 votes for Labour in this constituency, so whether the Labour vote went pro-unionist, anti-tory or simply stayed with Labour would probably be the deciding factor.

[robbienicoll]

Continuing on from the last post.



6.  Angus and Mearns (gold) (Mearns; Montrose and District; Brechin and Edzell; Kirriemuir and Dean; Arbroath West, Letham and Friockheim; Forfar and District; Arbroath East and Lunan)

Swaps out Monifieth and Carnoustie for my old stomping ground of Mearns, which introduces some form of LD vote to link up with what is left of it in Angus. Still likely to go Conservative, if not higher than it was in 2017, but still made competitive by Montrose, Brechin, Forfar and Arbroath East.

7. Angus South and Dundee East (turquoise) (Carnoustie and District; Monifieth and Sidlaw; The Ferry; North East; East End; Maryfield)

Comfortable SNP seat. 

8. Dundee West and Perth East (red) (Strathmartine; Lochee; Coldside; West End; Carse of Gowrie; Perth City Centre)

Another very comfortable SNP seat. Labour's best shot at any of these in my opinion.


Totals
Conservative - 3 
SNP - 4
Tossup - Aberdeen South West (would come down to LD and Labour vote)

Attachments:

[Deleted]

That's quite impressive considering the relative size of each vote and, more importantly, where they are. Is there any way to gerrymander a Labour seat somewhere up there?

[robbienicoll]

From a quick glance through my figures, I don't think so. If there was one it would have to balance against both the SNP and Conservatives whilst Labour come through the middle, which rules out Dundee and Aberdeenshire. Some form of Aberdeen Central seat with Robert Gordon's University included would be the likeliest path to one.

[Deleted]

I'm going to have a go at gerrymandering the entire country in favour of the Labour Party, starting with the the South West as that's where I live. This wasn't too difficult, as it's mostly about splitting strong Labour areas into as many seats as possible while still winning them.
_

[andrewp]

Mar 31, 2018 22:49:05 GMT @europeanlefty said:

I'm going to have a go at gerrymandering the entire country in favour of the Labour Party, starting with the the South West as that's where I live. This wasn't too difficult, as it's mostly about splitting strong Labour areas into as many seats as possible while still winning them.
_

How many Labour seats do you think you have managed to create in the south west?

[Deleted]

Gloucesershire & Northern Wiltshire.

Cheltenham (Turquoise): Tory/LibDem marginal. Currently Tory, BUT three Tory voting wards to the South West removed and one ward tht votes for the localist People Against Bureaucracy Party locally, and so would probably go LibDem in a general election

Tewkesbury, Brockworth & Newewnt (cream/yellow): Very Tory. compiled of Tory bits that didn't fit in elsewhere

Cirencester North (red): Ditto

Cinderford & Gloucester (pink): Labour voting bits of the Forest of Dean combined with Labour voting bits of Gloucester to create a seat we might win out of two we can't really. Tory majority of around 2,000

Stroud (green): Current constituency with Bisley, Painswick, Harwicke, Eastington and Severn removed. This leaves hippy Stroud, post-industrial Dursley, marginal Cam and Green-heavy Nailsworth. Berkley was left in as their hatred of (and Carmichaels support for) the Berkley hunt could well have cost the Tories dearly last time. LibDem Wootton has been added to make the numbers up.

Severn & Quedgeley (dark blue): what's left over. Heavily Tory, although UKIP may have rivalled them at the height of their popularity.

Thornbury, Yate & Cirencester South (purple): Thornbury & Yate enlarged in a way that allows for other changes in South Glos. I didn't look at the exact figures, but I would guess the Tories would beat the LibDems by around 60-25.

Swindon Central (slightly darker yellow?): The Labour voting core of Swindonn, plus some other wards to stay within quota. Labour majority of a little over 7,000

Swindon Outer (light blue): What's left of Swindon, safe Conservative

Wiltshire North (orange): As much of rural North Wiltshire as would fit. Heavily Tory.

[Deleted]

Bristol & surrounding area


Bristol North West remained largely the same, although a few Tory wards were swapped out to Filton & Bradley Stoke and a few Labour wards swapped in from the same constituency. The rest of Bristol was split up into as many seats as possible while retaining Labour majorities of around 1,000-5,000.

Bristol North West: Dark yellow in the North West, largely unchanged from the GE but slightly safer.

Bristol South & Wells: light blue, Strongly Labour Bristol South with equally strongly Tory areas of Somerset. Labour majority of around 1,000.

Lawrence Hill & Keynsham: In red. Working class areas of east Bristol with some of the leafy suburbs. Labour majority just over 5,000.

Bristol Mid & Midsomer Norton: Purple, to the south. Labour majority of 3,000, boosted by some Labour voting wards around Paulton in Somerset.

Bristol Cabot & Nailsea: Orange. Some very left-wing areas of Bristol West (some of which are also student areas) and rural North Somerset. safe-ish, majority around 5,000

Clifton & Portishead: Former navy base at Portishead plus hippy (Green-voting) Clifton in West Bristol. Modest Labour majority of about 2,000, but would be very vulberable to Clifton's Greens splitting the vote in a general election.

Bath & Trowbridge North: Bath needed to be bigger, so it was combined with bits of Wiltshire that vote LibDem in local elections, LibDem hold but on a reduced majority.

Everything else is really solidly Tory, simply because of where in the country we are.