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Post by greenhert on Oct 2, 2016 18:29:36 GMT
Today, I talked with my second cousin Phil, a Labour activist in Highgate, London, about how out of date the city boundaries for Cambridge are (two of his children live in Cambridge), and that South Cambridgeshire wards like Girton, Harston & Hauxton, Fulbourn, Milton, Shelford & The Staplefords, Teversham, Histon & Impington, and Barton should now be integrated into Cambridge's boundaries.
On that basis, here is what 'Cambridge North' and 'Cambridge South' would look like:
And the notional results would be:
Cambridge North: Lab 31.4%, Lib Dem 31.2%, Con 23.4%, Green 8.8%, UKIP 5.2% (three-way marginal, notional Labour majority 113).
Cambridge South: Con 39.9%, Lib Dem 22.9%, Lab 20.2%, UKIP 11.2%, Green 5.8%.
But, adding just Haslingfield & The Eversdens to Cambridge North makes that notionally a Liberal Democrat seat (by 233 votes using Electoral Calculus' workings) but still leaves Cambridge South in quota 
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 2, 2016 18:49:37 GMT
There aren't really enough areas that are functionally Cambridge to justify two constituencies based on the city - certainly I'd question whether places like Harston qualify. And some areas that are more closely linked (e. g. Bar Hill) are left out of your two seats.
But the bigger issue is your internal boundary, which is very weak on the ground. If you were seriously trying to do this, I'd cut out areas west of Ermine Street, add in areas along the A428, A14 and A10 corridors and draw the boundary down the line of the River Cam (allowing for the small areas where the ward boundaries don't accord with this.)
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Post by greenhert on Oct 2, 2016 19:41:38 GMT
There aren't really enough areas that are functionally Cambridge to justify two constituencies based on the city - certainly I'd question whether places like Harston qualify. And some areas that are more closely linked (e. g. Bar Hill) are left out of your two seats. But the bigger issue is your internal boundary, which is very weak on the ground. If you were seriously trying to do this, I'd cut out areas west of Ermine Street, add in areas along the A428, A14 and A10 corridors and draw the boundary down the line of the River Cam (allowing for the small areas where the ward boundaries don't accord with this.) There also are not enough electors within the 'Greater Cambridge' area for two seats, so one or two of them will inevitably have to be linked with villages far from what could be considered ipso facto suburbs of Cambridge.
On that basis, Cambridge is much better divided East/West. When you go northwards of Cambridge by train, you are really going northeastwards.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Oct 2, 2016 23:35:36 GMT
There aren't really enough areas that are functionally Cambridge to justify two constituencies based on the city - certainly I'd question whether places like Harston qualify. And some areas that are more closely linked (e. g. Bar Hill) are left out of your two seats. This is true, but imagine if the boundaries of the city were extended and then have a look at the Commission's proposed Northampton South, and the idea of a 'Cambridge South' seat that stretches all the way to the county border with Hertfordshire suddenly becomes more realistic. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 2, 2016 23:41:32 GMT
Cambridge is much better divided East/West. When you go northwards of Cambridge by train, you are really going northeastwards.If held at gunpoint and told I absolutely had to split Cambridge in two, I would go down the River Cam. So the centre, east and south would be in one seat, and the north and west in another. |
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Post by minionofmidas on Oct 3, 2016 8:55:29 GMT
In other news, I've only just noticed that boundaryassistant's "Local Elections 2014" includes results for other years as well and you can keep it open in another tab. Very handy for this thread. Agreed that's one of the main sources I use, along with census statistics and Pete's excellent notional results maps. (Electoral Calculus also gets a look, even though I should know better  ). How did you get the ward population to appear on your map? the "show ward labels" button at top right. Doesn't work below a certain zoom level (and causes a script error when zooming out again), though. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 3, 2016 18:22:41 GMT
There aren't really enough areas that are functionally Cambridge to justify two constituencies based on the city - certainly I'd question whether places like Harston qualify. And some areas that are more closely linked (e. g. Bar Hill) are left out of your two seats. But the bigger issue is your internal boundary, which is very weak on the ground. If you were seriously trying to do this, I'd cut out areas west of Ermine Street, add in areas along the A428, A14 and A10 corridors and draw the boundary down the line of the River Cam (allowing for the small areas where the ward boundaries don't accord with this.) There also are not enough electors within the 'Greater Cambridge' area for two seats, so one or two of them will inevitably have to be linked with villages far from what could be considered ipso facto suburbs of Cambridge.
On that basis, Cambridge is much better divided East/West. When you go northwards of Cambridge by train, you are really going northeastwards.
What on earth are you talking about? At most, the train line goes north-north-east and it is a long way from being the most popular form of transport in the sub-region. None of which is really relevant, because if you're going to split an urban area in two, you need to split it in some way that makes some vague sense on the ground. The river is fairly obvious on the ground. Whereas your proposed boundary cuts across a bunch of back streets that do not conform with locally existing community identities. Trust me. Your boundary is terrible. And yes, I accept that there aren't enough areas in Greater Cambridge for two seats, which is one reason it hasn't been suggested yet. But you've chosen to add in areas that have no strong relationship to Cambridge (e. g. Gamlingay is only slightly better connected to Cambridge than to Bedford) and to leave out areas that are comparatively well-connected. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 3, 2016 18:45:52 GMT
This would be the obvious solution (but it's clearly not a good idea)  I suppose in Greenhert's defence, this thread is supposed to be for ugly gerrymanders I guess if Cambridge's electorate were to return to a normal level (which it has from the referendum) then you could draw slightly less far-flung seats, but even so the whole built up area is well short of two seats and when Cambridge is too large for one seat hiving off wards is still going to be the better solution |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 3, 2016 18:50:38 GMT
Yes, something like that is the least worst variant of that option (though I'd add Balsham and drop Cambourne). But two seats isn't going to be viable until Northstowe is completely built out, and possibly not even then.
In passing, I'd note that the difference in Cambridge's electorate is probably mostly about the time of year you take it at. Last year's students are gone from the rolls by November, but the new ones aren't all on yet (but are more likely to be so by May.) The referendum exacerbated this change, but I suspect something of that nature is likely to be seen every year from now on with IER.
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Post by jamie on Oct 15, 2016 12:29:27 GMT
nitory Does DRA still work for you? I was going to use it but I can't seem to load the states themselves onto the map.
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Post by nitory on Oct 15, 2016 13:38:02 GMT
nitory Does DRA still work for you? I was going to use it but I can't seem to load the states themselves onto the map. Just checked and no not loading states or saved plans onto the map for me either. Odd it was working fine yesterday. ___ An NI unionist gerrymander which packs nationalists into 4 seats, though with 3 seats needing a unionist pact to be won and Belfast being utterly torn to pieces.    |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 15, 2016 14:31:36 GMT
nitory Does DRA still work for you? I was going to use it but I can't seem to load the states themselves onto the map. Just checked and no not loading states or saved plans onto the map for me either. Odd it was working fine yesterday. I also used it yesterday. It was definitely working up to around 10pm as I saved a Georgia plan then, but when I clicked on Illinois straight afterwards it seemed to stop working. Hopefully it's temporary! |
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Oct 15, 2016 16:51:12 GMT
Just checked and no not loading states or saved plans onto the map for me either. Odd it was working fine yesterday. I also used it yesterday. It was definitely working up to around 10pm as I saved a Georgia plan then, but when I clicked on Illinois straight afterwards it seemed to stop working. Hopefully it's temporary!  Hoping this is a glitch and the end hasn't suddenly come early, even just to screenshot maps. Thankfully my Maryland 8-0 map is saved, considering my life span feels shortened by 10 years wading through all the incumbent issues with their districts    |
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Oct 15, 2016 17:51:46 GMT
nitory I love the evilness of crossing Lough Neagh! I actually didn't! The bits north of Lurgan are in the Lisburn seat. Though not to let down my reputation for evil, I was considering splitting North Down and using the Portaferry-Strangford ferry to take in Downpatrick! |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 15, 2016 21:22:17 GMT
nitory Does DRA still work for you? I was going to use it but I can't seem to load the states themselves onto the map. Just checked and no not loading states or saved plans onto the map for me either. Odd it was working fine yesterday. ___ An NI unionist gerrymander which packs nationalists into 4 seats, though with 3 seats needing a unionist pact to be won and Belfast being utterly torn to pieces. Now that is a true US style gerrymander |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 15, 2016 21:25:09 GMT
I also used it yesterday. It was definitely working up to around 10pm as I saved a Georgia plan then, but when I clicked on Illinois straight afterwards it seemed to stop working. Hopefully it's temporary! :( Hoping this is a glitch and the end hasn't suddenly come early, even just to screenshot maps. Thankfully my Maryland 8-0 map is saved, considering my life span feels shortened by 10 years wading through all the incumbent issues with their districts I really hope that your plans aren't lost forever as I would absolutely delight at the sheer amazing horror of gerrymandering that I have never been able to re-create |
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johnloony
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Post by johnloony on Oct 15, 2016 21:50:41 GMT
An NI unionist gerrymander which packs nationalists into 4 seats, though with 3 seats needing a unionist pact to be won and Belfast being utterly torn to pieces. I'm confused. Is the South Belfast bit the same constituency as the outer-Fermanagh bit? They both look the same pink to me. If one wanted 16 or 17 unionist seats (assuming a single unionist candidate in each one), one could have a fractalised patchwork of hundreds of tiny exclaves scattered all over the place, with carefully balanced community divisions in each constituency. To make it easier, the strongest nationalist/republican areas could be concentrated into a single safe seat like West Belfast. |
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Oct 15, 2016 22:28:56 GMT
An NI unionist gerrymander which packs nationalists into 4 seats, though with 3 seats needing a unionist pact to be won and Belfast being utterly torn to pieces. I'm confused. Is the South Belfast bit the same constituency as the outer-Fermanagh bit? They both look the same pink to me. If one wanted 16 or 17 unionist seats (assuming a single unionist candidate in each one), one could have a fractalised patchwork of hundreds of tiny exclaves scattered all over the place, with carefully balanced community divisions in each constituency. To make it easier, the strongest nationalist/republican areas could be concentrated into a single safe seat like West Belfast. They are in the same seat! |
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Oct 15, 2016 22:45:20 GMT
I'm confused. Is the South Belfast bit the same constituency as the outer-Fermanagh bit? They both look the same pink to me. If one wanted 16 or 17 unionist seats (assuming a single unionist candidate in each one), one could have a fractalised patchwork of hundreds of tiny exclaves scattered all over the place, with carefully balanced community divisions in each constituency. To make it easier, the strongest nationalist/republican areas could be concentrated into a single safe seat like West Belfast. They aren't, South Fermangh and Mid Tyrone ends on the western shore of Lough Neagh while the other district ('The mistake by the M1') starts at the southeast tip of the lough and goes through Lisburn to south Belfast. The two have different opacity but perhaps that doesn't show up depending on screen settings. Interesting idea about the patchwork, you could balance the nationalist areas each constituency takes in between SDLP and Sinn Fein strength, though if both parties agreed to pacts you would need 2-3 vote sinks otherwise it would turn out a dummymander. |
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Oct 16, 2016 1:18:45 GMT
Manchester:  Conservative Seats: Cheadle - Unchanged except it takes in half of Manor ward. Vulnerable to a Lib Dem revival Hazel Grove - Gains Hyde ward from Tameside and Manor ward which is split with Cheadle. Again the Lib Dems have a chance here. Altrincham & Sale East - Only change is losing the Sale West wards for Sale East. Safest Conservative seat in Greater Manchester. Bolton North - Packs the most Conservative parts of Bolton into one reasonably safe seat. Bury West - Same idea as Bolton North. The Rochdale - Oldham - Tameside Seahorse - Not contiguous by road in at least one point, this constituency stitches together the last pieces of Conservative strength in these areas. Swing seats: Worsley, Urmiston and Sale West - Another stitching disparate Conservative areas together seat, local election results give an aproximate 4,000 Conservative majority, but notional results would be much closer Labour - UKIP seats: Not created out of a desire for UKIP to win, but so both parties divert resources here, instead of those marginals with the Conservatives . Labour would be favourites in both seats though even with UKIP's 'difficulties' in the past few weeks. Heywood and Middleton Fallsworth and Chadderton |
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). How did you get the ward population to appear on your map?
