|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 23, 2016 18:40:32 GMT
Not mentioned here (or anywhere else I have looked) but I do believe that Allerdale DC gain gives Labour outright control? Waiting for one or two suspensions from the Party there then to put it back where it was... A wry observation like that suggests you'll fit in just fine on here.  Welcome aboard. |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Sept 23, 2016 18:53:32 GMT
The two-party preferred vote in Coatbridge North was Lab 1572 SNP 1378. Labour picked up 222 transfers (mostly from the Conservatives), the SNP 117 (mostly from the Greens).
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
|
Post by maxque on Sept 23, 2016 19:53:20 GMT
Allerdale looks like a vote on local personalities unless the flooding experience has been attributed to Conservative lack of concern and planning? Arley shows Labour taking the whole of the absent Green and UKIP vote. The LD successes tend to show a good squeeze effect on those unable to win. Interesting results tending to show that the Conservatives need us to stand more often and try harder.....short of actually winning! When it comes to the GE the Conservatives either need us to work quite hard or not to stand at all. Arley and Coatbridge had both campaigns heavily centered on fighting against an eventual closure of a local service. Coatbridge: Eventual closure of the Monklands Hospital by the SNP government (health is devolved). Arley: Eventual closure (and a severe cut in operation hours already happened) of the Arley Leisure Centre. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Sept 23, 2016 20:34:02 GMT
Although I would never underestimate local factors the Allerdale result shows the resurgent Lib Dems taking a straight 20% chunk out of the Tory vote and effectively letting Labour in. Coatbridge continues a trend of Labour in Scotland gaining seats in by-elections despite having a swing against them (which is in part due to how the electoral system plays in by elections in Scotland). Arley is the stand out result really given that Labour managed to apparently annex all the "absent" opposition votes in a way I can't remember seeing for a long time. Cherwell in contrast very solid for the Tories.
|
|
|
|
Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 23, 2016 21:20:22 GMT
Although I would never underestimate local factors the Allerdale result shows the resurgent Lib Dems taking a straight 20% chunk out of the Tory vote and effectively letting Labour in. Coatbridge continues a trend of Labour in Scotland gaining seats in by-elections despite having a swing against them (which is in part due to how the electoral system plays in by elections in Scotland). Arley is the stand out result really given that Labour managed to apparently annex all the "absent" opposition votes in a way I can't remember seeing for a long time. Cherwell in contrast very solid for the Tories. The Cherwell result surprised me. I expected there to be a swing against us, due to the Horton hospital issue. I did however expect us to hold, due to the fractured opposition in the only election previously held in the ward. (Despite being local, I had no input into or contact with he campaign) |
|
|
|
Post by lackeroftalent on Sept 23, 2016 21:51:27 GMT
McNicol's goons would be after them otherwise (given their seeming belief Green/Labour converts are the devil's spawn) Labour's rabid attacks on those who have had the audacity to support other parties on the left is pretty much the reason I believe I will never again lend my vote to a Labour candidate. |
|
|
|
Post by Antiochian on Sept 23, 2016 22:24:42 GMT
McNicol's goons would be after them otherwise (given their seeming belief Green/Labour converts are the devil's spawn) Labour's rabid attacks on those who have had the audacity to support other parties on the left is pretty much the reason I believe I will never again lend my vote to a Labour candidate. Alas, though you are one of the few, as the Green (un)faithful are drinking the Corbynite Kool-Aid like its Jonestown 2016.. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
|
Post by Sibboleth on Sept 23, 2016 22:31:44 GMT
People involved in politics tend to think far too highly of themselves. To use the word of the year: sad!
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Sept 23, 2016 22:53:03 GMT
McNicol's goons would be after them otherwise (given their seeming belief Green/Labour converts are the devil's spawn) Labour's rabid attacks on those who have had the audacity to support other parties on the left is pretty much the reason I believe I will never again lend my vote to a Labour candidate. It's not all of Labour , many party members strongly oppose this sort of attempt to reduce socialist influence in the party. I think there will be attempts to stop this sort of activity. |
|
cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
|
Post by cibwr on Sept 24, 2016 10:08:37 GMT
Plasnewydd Green 93 UKIP 62 Con 115 Plaid 177 LD 1258 Lab 910 Lib Dem gain from Labour Labour have been remarkably tenatious is retaining seats in Cardiff Byelections despite a seriously divided local party and a council that frankly is really fucking up. |
|
|
|
Post by Kristofer Keane on Sept 25, 2016 6:43:19 GMT
The two-party preferred vote in Coatbridge North was Lab 1572 SNP 1378. Labour picked up 222 transfers (mostly from the Conservatives), the SNP 117 (mostly from the Greens). Do you have the full transfer table? I've been looking for it, I was just about to email the council.  |
|
|
|
Post by andrewteale on Sept 25, 2016 8:37:02 GMT
The two-party preferred vote in Coatbridge North was Lab 1572 SNP 1378. Labour picked up 222 transfers (mostly from the Conservatives), the SNP 117 (mostly from the Greens). Do you have the full transfer table? I've been looking for it, I was just about to email the council. It's on the website somewhere. Anyway
CALLAGHAN 366 +18 384 +19 403 -403
KIRLEY 1261 +3 1264 +78 1342 +36 1378
MCVEY 1350 +10 1360 +55 1415 +157 1572 E
WILSON J 195 +13 208 -208
WILSON N 63 -63
EXHAUSTED +19 19 +56 75 +210 285
|
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Sept 25, 2016 11:36:49 GMT
Plasnewydd Green 93 UKIP 62 Con 115 Plaid 177 LD 1258 Lab 910 Lib Dem gain from Labour Labour have been remarkably tenatious is retaining seats in Cardiff Byelections despite a seriously divided local party and a council that frankly is really fucking up. It's notable that all three of Labour's losses to the LibDems have has significant local factors at play. But this seat has been LibDem before as has the Sheffield seat they won. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 25, 2016 11:53:08 GMT
It's notable that all three of Labour's losses to the LibDems have has significant local factors at play. But this seat has been LibDem before as has the Sheffield seat they won. Yes - we're seeing a Lib Dem revival in areas where they used to be able to defeat Labour (both Sheffield and Cardiff having previously had Lib Dem administrations). There are, unfortunately, plenty more similar places in the industrial north. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
|
Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2016 12:12:27 GMT
The real point about the Cardiff seat is that it was a surprise the LibDems lost it in 2012 - classic "low hanging fruit".
There seems to be a consensus that the Sheffield result had a lot to do with Labour's somewhat bizarre choice of candidate.
Generally, the evidence from May's elections is that the LibDems won't be sweeping back to power in their former northern citadels any time soon.
|
|
|
|
Post by Robert Waller on Sept 25, 2016 12:17:44 GMT
People involved in politics tend to think far too highly of themselves. To use the word of the year: sad! Also, I read an interesting sentence by David Bromwich in the London Review of Books this morning (while discussing assaults on free speech by both religious fundamentalists and those feeling 'offended' or 'unsafe' in universities): "Most people (the highly literate are among the worst) believe that what is good for them will be good for others". More on topic, Arley is a fairly working class ward (ex coal mining area), and I actually thought Labour might win back most of the UKIP vote from last time, given they weren't standing, and as usual if I'd had more of the courage of my convictions, I'd have predicted a gain. |
|
