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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 11:10:54 GMT
Wonderful to see the Tories have such a bad night! It's certainly interesting: a random blip or some kind of straw in the wind? The polls are not giving the Tories any particular reason for alarm, so what's going on? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2016 11:15:59 GMT
Some of us have suspected the current Tory lead in the polls is softer than it looks - more a pervasive feeling of "TINA" than any positive enthusiasm.
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Post by marksenior on Sept 23, 2016 11:23:43 GMT
Wonderful to see the Tories have such a bad night! It's certainly interesting: a random blip or some kind of straw in the wind? The polls are not giving the Tories any particular reason for alarm, so what's going on? The Conservatives are heading for a typical mid term government backlash with falling poll ratings and heavy council election losses . The May leadership election honeymoon delayed the natural process by perhaps 6-9 months . |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 23, 2016 11:31:05 GMT
Some of us have suspected the current Tory lead in the polls is softer than it looks - more a pervasive feeling of "TINA" than any positive enthusiasm. The polls show how people would vote in a general election, not in local elections. Nearly always and everywhere, the Tories underperform in local elections relative to their national strength and especially so in by-elections (and Lib Dems in particular overperform, again especially in by-elections.). None of this suggests that Labour are about to gain Nuneaton or the Lib Dems Newton Abbott |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2016 11:37:02 GMT
And I don't think anybody has claimed otherwise. If a party is genuinely popular though, it usually shows up to some degree in local contests.
Labour's generally anaemic performance in local by-elections in the summer of 2007 was one thing making Brown cautious about an early election, it is claimed. Suddenly in September the results became much better, and this helped set off the frenzy of speculation about a snap GE - with well known consequences.
ISTR that local by-elections in the preceding year were quite a good predictor of the 1997 Labour landslide also.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 12:17:03 GMT
It's certainly interesting: a random blip or some kind of straw in the wind? The polls are not giving the Tories any particular reason for alarm, so what's going on? The Conservatives are heading for a typical mid term government backlash with falling poll ratings and heavy council election losses . The May leadership election honeymoon delayed the natural process by perhaps 6-9 months . That is an assumption, and one which could have occurred to any of us. It may or may not prove to be correct, but I was observing that it seemed to have come out of the blue: evidence from polls may show a slight fading of the Theresa May honeymoon, but so far nothing very dramatic. The Conservatives still have a healthy lead. |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 12:21:25 GMT
I think that the extent to which Brexit has convulsed politics and people's attitudes to it has been disguised somewhat by the largely unchanged national opinion polls. Some of our more interesting local results might be an indicator of what happens if this convulsion is combined with people actively being campaigned at. Witney will be interesting either way, could suggest something is happening under the surface or it could confirm that the status quo has been undisturbed.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2016 12:25:00 GMT
Some of us have suspected the current Tory lead in the polls is softer than it looks - more a pervasive feeling of "TINA" than any positive enthusiasm. That's a possibility, certainly. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 23, 2016 12:35:57 GMT
The Conservatives are heading for a typical mid term government backlash with falling poll ratings and heavy council election losses . The May leadership election honeymoon delayed the natural process by perhaps 6-9 months . That is an assumption, and one which could have occurred to any of us. It may or may not prove to be correct, but I was observing that it seemed to have come out of the blue: evidence from polls may show a slight fading of the Theresa May honeymoon, but so far nothing very dramatic. The Conservatives still have a healthy lead. It had not come out of the blue unless you have just not been looking at the local council election results from July onwards . The Conservatives still have a healthy lead in the polls because the pollsters ( rightly or wrongly ) weight the raw results so that they do . The latest Yougov poll weightings for example adds 2% to the original Con lead over Lab and reduces Lib Dems % by 1 and adds 1 to the UKIP % |
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Post by justin124 on Sept 23, 2016 13:05:58 GMT
Whilst current polls are generally showing a bigger Tory lead than May 2015, much of this appears to be due to a significant Lab to Con swing in Scotland. The latest YouGov poll puts the Tories 9% ahead and represents a 1.2% swing to them in GB as a whole. In Scotland,however, there has been a swing of circa 8% , and this implies that in England & Wales the pro-Tory swing is just 0.6%. This would result in six Tory gains from Labour - but in five of the seats concerned Labour would enjoy the benefit of first time incumbency.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Sept 23, 2016 13:20:22 GMT
The archbishops of York were also bishops of Winchester? Interesting. Any particular reason? Because after the Great Army invaded, York lost rather a lot of its property. Worcester was added on to boost the revenues (and it was picked because every other English see north of the Thames had fallen into abeyance). |
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amasulem
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Post by amasulem on Sept 23, 2016 13:28:22 GMT
Not mentioned here (or anywhere else I have looked) but I do believe that Allerdale DC gain gives Labour outright control? Waiting for one or two suspensions from the Party there then to put it back where it was... |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Sept 23, 2016 13:38:39 GMT
Do you mean suspensions of Corbynites or revenge suspensions by Corbynites? Welcome, btw  |
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 23, 2016 13:48:01 GMT
Its half of Cockermouth which is a fairly ordinary market town. There is nothing ordinary about Cockermouth. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2016 13:58:11 GMT
Do you mean suspensions of Corbynites or revenge suspensions by Corbynites? Welcome, btw Said poster made one previous post, but I believe they were a Green back then. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Sept 23, 2016 14:02:29 GMT
Oh yeh, previously posted 3 years ago, lol. You're just worried she's going to beat your posting tally in 50,000 years' time, arent you Bish |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 23, 2016 14:06:12 GMT
Its their first post under Labour colours, which is what I really wanted to point out  Small wonder they have such an "anonymous" handle, McNicol's goons would be after them otherwise (given their seeming belief Green/Labour converts are the devil's spawn) |
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amasulem
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Post by amasulem on Sept 23, 2016 14:29:56 GMT
Do you mean suspensions of Corbynites or revenge suspensions by Corbynites? Welcome, btw We both know. :-) |
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 23, 2016 15:18:20 GMT
Allerdale, Christchurch - Labour gain from Conservative
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 324 | 40.7% | +5.8% | +7.3% | +4.4% | +3.9% | Liberal Democrat | 234 | 29.4% | +20.0% | +19.4% | +18.5% | +18.3% | Conservative | 206 | 25.9% | -19.3% | -19.5% | -16.3% | -15.3% | UKIP | 32 | 4.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -10.5% | -11.2% | -10.7% | -10.9% | Total votes | 796 |
| 39% | 41% | 53% | 54% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 12½% / 13½% since 2015 and 9½% / 10½% since 2011
Council now 29 labour, 15 Conservative, 5 Independent, 5 Others, 2UKIP,
Cardiff, Plasnewydd - Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 "top" | since 2012 "average" | since 2008 "top" | since 2008 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 1,258 | 48.1% | +15.4% | +14.4% | +11.1% | +9.8% | Labour | 910 | 34.8% | -2.0% | -2.5% | +5.5% | +7.6% | Plaid Cymru | 177 | 6.8% | -5.3% | -3.6% | -4.1% | -4.7% | Conservative | 115 | 4.4% | -1.2% | -0.5% | -5.3% | -4.7% | Green | 93 | 3.6% | -9.3% | -10.2% | -9.7% | -10.3% | UKIP | 62 | 2.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 2,615 |
| 63% | 67% | 63% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat ~ 8½% since 2012 and ~ 2¾% / 1% since 2008 Council now 41 Labour, 16 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative, 4 Plaid Cymru, 3 Independent, 1 Heath Independent, 1 Vacant
Carmarthenshire, Cilycwm - Plaid Cymru gain from Independent| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2008 | 2008 result | | Plaid Cymru | 201 | 27.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Davies | 151 | 20.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Labour | 123 | 17.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Independent Paul * | 106 | 14.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| People First ** | 64 | 8.9% | -28.4% | from nowhere |
| Liberal Democrat | 62 | 8.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Conservative | 15 | 2.1% | -17.2% | from nowhere |
| Independent Councillor |
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| -43.4% | -65.1% | unopposed | Other Independents |
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| -34.9% |
| Total votes | 722 |
| 102% | 99% |
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* Conservative candidate in 2012 ** Independent candidate in 2012 Swing not meaningful Council now 29 Plaid Cymru, 22 Labour, 20 Independent, 2 Unaffiliated, 1 People First Cherwell, Adderbury, Bloxham & Bodicote - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Conservative | 1,015 | 57.4% | +8.5% | +7.0% | Labour | 286 | 16.2% | -0.3% | +0.0% | Green | 278 | 15.7% | -5.5% | -3.7% | Liberal Democrat | 189 | 10.7% | -2.8% | -3.3% | Total votes | 1,768 |
| 65% | 68% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 3½% / 4½% since May Council now 38 Conservative, 8 Labour, 2 Independent Gateshead, Chopwell & Rowlands Gill - Labour hold | Party | 2016 B votes | 2016 B share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 1,066 | 59.1% | -3.7% | -1.4% | -0.9% | -21.7% | UKIP | 282 | 15.6% | +1.3% | from nowhere | -9.6% | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 221 | 12.3% | +7.9% | +2.9% | +6.4% | +2.5% | Conservative | 156 | 8.6% | -2.3% | -9.6% | -0.3% | -0.9% | Green | 79 | 4.4% | -3.2% | -7.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1.804 |
| 65% | 38% | 63% | 69% |
Swing Labour to UKIP 2½% since May but UKIP to Labour 4.4% since 2014 otherwise not meaningful
Council now 54 Labour, 12 Liberal Democrat
North Lanarkshire, Coatbridge North & Glenboig - Labour gain from SNP
- based on first preferences
| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2012 | since 2011 B | since 2009 B | since 2007 | Labour | 1,350 | 41.7% | -11.3% | -10.6% | +4.6% | -6.1% | SNP | 1,261 | 39.0% | +8.2% | -0.1% | +8.5% | +9.6% | Conservative | 366 | 11.3% | +5.3% | +5.4% | +2.5% | +0.7% | Green | 195 | 6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | +3.2% | from nowhere | UKIP | 63 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -10.2% |
| -13.5% | -9.0% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.7% |
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| -5.3% |
| Socialist |
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| -2.0% | -3.2% | Total votes | 3,235 |
| 67% | 111% | 79% | 48% |
Swing Labour to SNP 9¾% since 2012, 5¼% since 2011 by-election, 2% since 2009 by-election and 7¾% since 2007 Council now 38 Labour, 22 SNP, 9 Independent, 1 Cumbernauld Independent North Warwickshire, Arley & Whitacre - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Labour | 577 | 59.7% | +33.7% | +32.8% | +17.0% | +16.6% | Conservative | 390 | 40.3% | +1.7% | +4.8 | -3.9% | -2.8% | UKIP |
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| -22.6% | -23.9% |
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| Green |
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| -12.8% | -13.6% |
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| Independent |
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| -13.1% | -13.8% | Total votes | 967 |
| 28% | 30% | 50% | 53% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 16% / 14% since 2015 and 10½% / 9¾% since 2011 Council now 21 Conservative, 14 Labour South Northamptonshire, Old Stratford - Conservative hold | Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | 2015 result | since 2011 | 2007 results | Conservative | 369 | 77.2% | unopposed | +9.6% | unopposed | UKIP | 109 | 22.8% |
| from nowhere |
| Labour |
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| -23.8% |
| Liberal Democrat |
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| -8.6% |
| Total votes | 478 |
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| 60% |
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Swing not meaningful Council now 34 Conservative, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Vacant Suffolk, Hadleigh - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2013 | since 2009 | since 2005 | Liberal Democrat | 642 | 36.2% | +12.0% | -8.2% | -9.9% | Conservative | 460 | 25.9% | -5.6% | -14.3% | +5.5% | Labour | 397 | 22.4% | +5.8% | +7.1% | -7.1% | UKIP | 204 | 11.5% | -11.3% | from nowhere | +7.6% | Green | 70 | 3.9% | -0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,773 |
| 96% | 81% | 43% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 8¾% since 2013 and 3% since 2009 but 7¾% Liberal Democrat to Conservative since 2005 Council now 37 Conservative, 15 Labour, 10 UKIP, 8 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 2 Green Teignbridge, Teignmouth Central - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2016 votes | 2016 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 491 | 51.1% | +28.3% | +28.6% | +14.6% | +15.8% | Conservative | 286 | 29.8% | -12.6% | -11.9% | -6.8% | -7.4% | UKIP | 111 | 11.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 72 | 7.5% | -8.7% | -9.1% | -5.0% | -5.8% | Green |
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| -18.6% | -19.1% |
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| Independent |
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| -14.3% | -14.7% | Total votes | 960 |
| 32% | 33% | 46% | 47% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~20½% since 2015 and ~10½% / 11½% since 2011
Council now 29 Conservative, 12 Liberal Democrat, 5 Independent
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 23, 2016 15:27:20 GMT
Allerdale looks like a vote on local personalities unless the flooding experience has been attributed to Conservative lack of concern and planning?
Arley shows Labour taking the whole of the absent Green and UKIP vote.
The LD successes tend to show a good squeeze effect on those unable to win.
Interesting results tending to show that the Conservatives need us to stand more often and try harder.....short of actually winning! When it comes to the GE the Conservatives either need us to work quite hard or not to stand at all.
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