Witney

[neilm]

Sept 12, 2016 23:36:41 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 12, 2016 23:30:09 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Wessex Regionalists put up their leader last time and he got into three figures, so it's all to play for really. 

Muriel Burton stood for the Liberals in '74, '79 (Mid oxfordshire)  and '87. Not quite an Alan Butt Philip or Revd Roger Roberts but worth noting anyway. The 2010 Labour candidate was a Haringey councillor Joe Goldberg.

At the back of my mind is something to do with Joe Goldberg (in NOLS days) and Tony Robinson. Maybe an NEC election?

[maxque]

Last election was:
Con 60.2
Lab 17.2
UKIP 9.2
LD 6.8
Grn 5.1
NHA 1.1 (by their former leader)
Wessex Regionalist / Ind Thomson 0.2
Reduce VAT in Sport / Fathers for Justice lookalike / Land Party 0.1
Ind Handley 0.0

Last time this constituency or a predecessor voted other than Conservative was in 1918, when Liberal Rhys Williams was elected unopposed.

[mondialito]

Sept 12, 2016 15:00:58 GMT Crimson King said:

Sept 12, 2016 14:48:56 GMT justlooking said:

Surely the boundary review couldn't have been that bad a read for him today.

I wonder if the reverse is true - largely unchanged in the review, so it is worth getting a new MP in now, and continue after the GE. If the seat was going to be split with no obvious successor there would be little point getting someone in for 3 years

This looks to be the case.

[Andrew_S]

Witney by-election also to be held on 20th October, along with Batley & Spen.

[AdminSTB]

Sept 14, 2016 11:12:44 GMT Andrew_S said:

Witney by-election also to be held on 20th October, along with Batley & Spen.

That was quick!

[Andrew_S]

[Jack]

Sept 14, 2016 17:56:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

If only Twitter allowed more than 140 characters so tweets would actually make some sort of sense.

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 12, 2016 23:08:50 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 12, 2016 23:00:59 GMT finsobruce said:

I don't know about 25% but as everybody should know of old the Lib Dems national poll rating bears no relation to their performance in by-elections, especially as they take them so seriously and (as we have seen in local results) are now bouncing back freed from the shackles of being in coalition with the Tories.  This isn't a terrible constituency for Labour by any means, so a combatative candidate should be able to make a go of it. But we will see.

Yes, Labour could establish themselves as the 2nd party here.  I just feel that it is coming at a bad time for them, with an unresolved civil war (and hence possible selection issues); unless perhaps the by election is just after the leadership issue is resolved and there is a bit of a bounce under a renewed mandate for Corbyn (or just conceivably new manager syndrome under Smith) and a load of enthusiastic new members rushes out to campaign.

Not sure how the typical Momentumer will appeal on the doorsteps of rural Oxfordshire.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Witney strikes me as exactly the sort of constituency that might have seen a fivefold increase in the size of the CLP since May 2015.

[Deleted]

4 new members then

[Crimson King]

Sept 14, 2016 19:11:04 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Witney strikes me as exactly the sort of constituency that might have seen a fivefold increase in the size of the CLP since May 2015.

and that additional 80% will be really enthusiastic about spending the next five weeks phone banking

for the Jeremy Corbyn leadership bid

[Crimson King]

Sept 14, 2016 17:56:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm not sure Paddy hasn't finally jumped the shark

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 14, 2016 19:46:50 GMT Crimson King said:

Sept 14, 2016 17:56:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm not sure Paddy hasn't finally jumped the shark

Finally?

[Deleted]

His ludicrous performance at the 2015 GE gave that away.

[Sibboleth]

Sept 14, 2016 19:13:01 GMT joe said:

4 new members then

Actually no; Oxfordshire CLPs tend to be large. There is not so much correlation between Labour's electoral and membership strength...

[marksenior]

Sept 14, 2016 19:13:01 GMT joe said:

4 new members then

Witney itself is a pretty strong Labour town they regularly win 2 of the 5 district wards .

[Sibboleth]

A lot of Oxfordshire towns are more working class 'n Labour than you'd think. Legacy of textile industry. But Labour gets nuked as soon as you hit the villages and newer middle class suburban developments.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 14, 2016 21:00:38 GMT marksenior said:

Sept 14, 2016 19:13:01 GMT joe said:

4 new members then

Witney itself is a pretty strong Labour town they regularly win 2 of the 5 district wards .

Can't say I know Witney, didn't it used to have a textile manufacturing base?

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 14, 2016 20:55:29 GMT Sibboleth said:

Sept 14, 2016 19:13:01 GMT joe said:

4 new members then

Actually no; Oxfordshire CLPs tend to be large. There is not so much correlation between Labour's electoral and membership strength...

I wouldn't mention that in the presence of Momentum members, especially if they have bundles of faggots and matches handy.

Why not, though? A party really ought to be able to recruit members in areas of electoral strength, and conversely use an influx of members to build up electoral strength.  Given that Labour has for some time now been trying to build itself up as a mass-membership party rather than either a Trade Union dominated party or a party owned by wealthy donors (admirably so IMO) something has gone badly wrong.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 14, 2016 21:16:38 GMT @boogieeck said:

Sept 14, 2016 21:12:20 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

I wouldn't mention that in the presence of Momentum members, especially if they have bundles of faggots handy.

.

do they tend to?

You never know when you might get hungry.