Witney

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 14, 2016 21:15:19 GMT @boogieeck said:

On the basis that opposition parties do not contest Brexit related by elections I presume the Conservatives get a free run?

Only if someone murders the incumbent.

In this case, I think that is over to your side....

[East Anglian Lefty]

Sept 14, 2016 21:12:20 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 14, 2016 20:55:29 GMT Sibboleth said:

Actually no; Oxfordshire CLPs tend to be large. There is not so much correlation between Labour's electoral and membership strength...

I wouldn't mention that in the presence of Momentum members, especially if they have bundles of faggots and matches handy.

Why not, though? A party really ought to be able to recruit members in areas of electoral strength, and conversely use an influx of members to build up electoral strength.  Given that Labour has for some time now been trying to build itself up as a mass-membership party rather than either a Trade Union dominated party or a party owned by wealthy donors (admirably so IMO) something has gone badly wrong.

New members can only lead to greater electoral strength if a) they campaign and b) the voters are even vaguely receptive. a) is less common that it ought to be everywhere, and it's particularly rare in areas where we haven't campaigned effectively for years, if ever. And there are certain settlements where b) isn't true either, and a belief that this group extends slightly wider than it actually does helps feed back into a).

And whilst people certainly talk about having a mass-membership party a lot, Labour hasn't actually done much to accomplish this yet. There haven't even been any serious attempts to establish why so many people who religiously vote for the party would never think of joining it, still less any concrete steps.

[Deleted]

Sept 14, 2016 21:04:53 GMT Sibboleth said:

A lot of Oxfordshire towns are more working class 'n Labour than you'd think. Legacy of textile industry. But Labour gets nuked as soon as you hit the villages and newer middle class suburban developments.

Burford to the rescue!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Writ moved; polling on 20 October.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 15, 2016 5:41:40 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

New members can only lead to greater electoral strength if a) they campaign and b) the voters are even vaguely receptive. a) is less common that it ought to be everywhere, and it's particularly rare in areas where we haven't campaigned effectively for years, if ever. And there are certain settlements where b) isn't true either, and a belief that this group extends slightly wider than it actually does helps feed back into a).

And whilst people certainly talk about having a mass-membership party a lot, Labour hasn't actually done much to accomplish this yet. There haven't even been any serious attempts to establish why so many people who religiously vote for the party would never think of joining it, still less any concrete steps.

Yes, I thought the answer might be along those lines.

There are a number of ways you could at least start to address those issues, but sadly it seems that other matters are a priority right now.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 14, 2016 21:05:52 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 14, 2016 21:00:38 GMT marksenior said:

Witney itself is a pretty strong Labour town they regularly win 2 of the 5 district wards .

Can't say I know Witney, didn't it used to have a textile manufacturing base?

Indeed, Witney Town FC immortalised it before their collapse- the Blanketmen!

Sadly the general collapse of textiles and the Duvet Ascendancy killed it off.

It's a brewery town now- Wychwood are based there.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 15, 2016 9:35:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Indeed, Witney Town FC immortalised it before their collapse- the Blanketmen!

Sadly the general collapse of textiles and the Duvet Ascendancy killed it off.

It's a brewery town now- Wychwood are based there.

Probably very similar place to Stroud 100 years ago.

It was a native of Witney who introduced me to Old Hooky when I was at university, but I see Hook Norton is just outside the constituency.

[Deleted]

[greenchristian]

Sept 14, 2016 21:12:20 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Why not, though? A party really ought to be able to recruit members in areas of electoral strength, and conversely use an influx of members to build up electoral strength.

In theory, yes. In practice it doesn't always work that way on either side of the equation. A small party with some determined members following a good strategy can sometimes win a lot of council seats in an area where the demographics are not good for recruiting members. Conversely, a large local party can be utterly hopeless at electioneering. Even if it does have a large influx of members, they might never become activists, or the party strategy might dilute their impact by failing to effectively target a winnable seat.

Having said that, I'd imagine those problems are less significant with the larger parties who have enough natural supporters to be able to win some council seats without reaching out to voters outside their core.

[finsobruce]

Sept 15, 2016 9:35:28 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 14, 2016 21:05:52 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Can't say I know Witney, didn't it used to have a textile manufacturing base?

Indeed, Witney Town FC immortalised it before their collapse- the Blanketmen!

"You're Sheet and you know you are.."

[LDCaerdydd]

First Conservative leaflet:

[David Ashforth]

Liberal Democrat leaflet. From Mark Pack

[mick745]

I think it would take a strange set of circumstances for Conservatives to lose this one, I don't feel a huge disgruntment amongst people with the government and its new leader, I think most people I speak to wish May well and the honeymoon period hasn't quite worn off. Equally I don't sense a huge wave of support for the opposition parties. Do the people of Witney think Corbyn is the answer? As someone previously said it would have been a doddle for Lab or LD in the 90s but the two circumstances were true then. It may not be a particularly interesting result. The government only have a majority of 12 so Cameron can't be too concerned that the seat will be lost.

[Pete Whitehead]

I believe Therea May largely grew up in this constituency. her father was vicar at Enstone

[Sibboleth]

I suppose an absurd Liberal Upset isn't entirely out of the question given everything. They've managed them in the past when their poll ratings were in the toilet.

[johnloony]

Sept 17, 2016 14:16:17 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Sept 12, 2016 20:04:55 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Depends if Cameron tipped off his Association before time that he would be resigning so they could be prepared. It sounds like he didn't, so it will take some time to get everything ready.

They don't really have much to do with it.

The candidates department will advertise the post in a few weeks, or whenever they feel like it, applications will be submitted by those on the list of approved candidates, from those with a serious chance to the seriously deluded.

The closing date will be specified when its advertised. Then the association will be involved in sifting with the candidates department. Long list, short list, interviews, final three then a vote. It could be an association decision if they have enough members....which they will, or it will be an open primary.

If Dan Hannan puts his name up he'll win it

You're talking about weeks and multiple stages, but there isn't enough time for all that according to a normal timetable. I don't know what the exact rules are, but the selection process will have to be speeded up in time for the by-election in October.

[Richard Allen]

Sept 17, 2016 12:13:07 GMT mick745 said:

The government only have a majority of 12 so Cameron can't be too concerned that the seat will be lost.

What makes you think he would be remotely bothered if the seat were lost?

[Chris]

Sept 17, 2016 20:17:40 GMT ArmchairCritic said:

Sept 17, 2016 19:11:04 GMT johnloony said:

You're talking about weeks and multiple stages, but there isn't enough time for all that according to a normal timetable. I don't know what the exact rules are, but the selection process will have to be speeded up in time for the by-election in October.

Not necessarily. They can speed it right up when it suits them but they still have to go through the process.

There is a subsection of the rules that specifically deals with parliamentary by-elections. At one time it gave CCHQ the authority to compile a shortlist at their own accord - not sure if that is still in the current version though.

[Andrew_S]

Sept 17, 2016 15:17:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Would Hannan, part of the nemesis of Cameron, get the support of the association? I might have thought that they would have residual loyalty to Dave

I suspect their main loyalty is to a sense of importance rather than any particular person. Therefore if Hannan is the only heavyweight candidate they'll probably select him. The same thing happened with Boris in Uxbridge.

[No Offence Alan]

Sept 17, 2016 22:01:32 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 17, 2016 15:17:44 GMT @boogieeck said:

Would Hannan, part of the nemesis of Cameron, get the support of the association? I might have thought that they would have residual loyalty to Dave

I suspect their main loyalty is to a sense of importance rather than any particular person. Therefore if Hannan is the only heavyweight candidate they'll probably select him. The same thing happened with Boris in Uxbridge.

It's just dawned on me that soon to be redundant MEPs might have a influence in the post boundary change scramble for seats.