Witney

[Andrew_S]

Sept 12, 2016 20:25:53 GMT AdminSTB said:

Sept 12, 2016 18:28:11 GMT johnloony said:

At any time between 1993 and 1997, Labour winning a by-election in Witney with a swing of 22% or more would have been a doddle. The fact that David Cameron has decided to resign is an indication of how weak Labour is now, when it would in normal circumstances be riding high in the mid-term of a Conservative government.

I am a bit disappointed at his decision, because it helps to cement the growing trend of politicians (Blair, David Miliband) to cop out instead of carrying on calmly. Being a backbench MP is a worthy job in itself, and there is no reason to suppose that he would be a distraction. It's not as if he would have spent 4 years sulking or rebelling like Heath did.

I agree entirely.

In spite of what the opinion polls are telling us, I would expect the Conservative share of the vote to take a rather bigger knock than might otherwise be expected, simply because the party will be deprived of the "leader's bonus" (the Lab to Con swing was 9.4% in 2010). What isn't certain is who will benefit the most. Second placed Labour already had a bit of a boost last year thanks to the Lib Dem slump. UKIP, the Lib Dems (who came 2nd in 2010 and 4th in 2015) and the Greens all saved their deposits last year - which of them, if any, could be best placed to benefit from Labour's present predicament?

I agree.

Early prediction:

Con 50% (-10)
UKIP 16% (+7)
Lab 15% (-2)
Green 10% (+5)
LD 8% (+1)
Others 1% (-1)

[peterl]

We would be happy with that result I think.

[East Anglian Lefty]

I suspect we'd probably take it too.

[peterl]

It would be a very nice result for the Greens for that matter.

[tonygreaves]

This is an important by-election for the Liberal Democrats. If the pattern of local elections follows through the LD candidate should come a fairly distant second as in 2010. There seems every chance that both UKIP and Labour would lose votes in the face of a strong LD campaign - whether the party is able to mount such a campaign is a test of its very patchy revival in the past 15 months. I have no idea what the answer is to that question but it seems to me to be the key question for the by-election result.

Tony

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 12, 2016 20:45:28 GMT peterl said:

We would be happy with that result I think.

Especially as the constituency voted Remain by a considerable margin.  Don't know how much of that was a personal vote for Cameron - not much, I think; there was a Remain majority in chain of seats along the Thames valley towards Bristol.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 12, 2016 21:24:15 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

I suspect we'd probably take it too.

We wouldn't.

We should be looking for a strong second.

[Andrew_S]

I wonder whether Dan Hannan is considering throwing his hat into the ring. He's a bit Eurosceptic for this constituency but if all the other potential candidates are poor he might win by default through force of personality.

[lennon]

My (totally uninformed) prediction is as follows:

Con 45%
LD 25%
UKIP 12%
Lab 10%
Grn 5%
Other 3%

[Andrew_S]

Sept 12, 2016 21:54:34 GMT lennon said:

My (totally uninformed) prediction is as follows:

Con 45%
LD 25%
UKIP 12%
Lab 10%
Grn 5%
Other 3%

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

[greenchristian]

Sept 12, 2016 21:50:02 GMT Andrew_S said:

I wonder whether Dan Hannan is considering throwing his hat into the ring. He's a bit Eurosceptic for this constituency but if all the other potential candidates are poor he might win by default through force of personality.

That could lead to quite a poor result for the Tories if the other parties start quoting his views on the NHS in all their campaign literature.

[lennon]

Sept 12, 2016 21:58:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 12, 2016 21:54:34 GMT lennon said:

My (totally uninformed) prediction is as follows:

Con 45%
LD 25%
UKIP 12%
Lab 10%
Grn 5%
Other 3%

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

Relatively strong Remain vote (54% or so), with a strong(ish) local group, no other organised opposition. Thinking that now they aren't being punished for being in Govt the LDs should drift back up in by-elections (as they are generally doing in local by-elections)

[marksenior]

Sept 12, 2016 21:58:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 12, 2016 21:54:34 GMT lennon said:

My (totally uninformed) prediction is as follows:

Con 45%
LD 25%
UKIP 12%
Lab 10%
Grn 5%
Other 3%

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

The Lib Dems polled 16% in the local elections in West Oxon in May and won 2 wards , Labour also did substantially better than the figures forecast for the by election .

My first stab in the dark would be something like

Con 44
LD 20
Lab 16
Green 8
UKIP 7
Others 5

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 12, 2016 22:11:46 GMT lennon said:

Sept 12, 2016 21:58:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

Relatively strong Remain vote (54% or so), with a strong(ish) local group, no other organised opposition. Thinking that now they aren't being punished for being in Govt the LDs should drift back up in by-elections (as they are generally doing in local by-elections)

Yep, all of that, plus consistent trend in local council bye elections nationally (and May 2016 locals) to outperform opinion polls, casting a smidgeon of doubt on the latter.  Also, can't see UKIP vote holding up on current trends in local by-elections combined with state of the leadership contest, while Labour party hamstrung by their leadership battle.

Essentially it looks a Conservative vs A N Other battle and the LDs are best placed to be A N Other in this constituency.   Fairly strong parties in neighbouring West Oxfordshire and Cotswolds may be able to help out.

Could depend a lot on local candidate - don't think there is one in place here, although all over there has been quite a big push to get candidates at least provisionally selected in case of snap election.  Might be a good opportunity for someone to make a splash - or might be a nonentity rushed into place because there isn't anyone strong available.  

[Izzyeviel]

I can't see anyone polling above 15% apart from the Tories. I expect the Lib Dems to beat UKIP though - not by a great margin though. Less than 10 for Labour would be a shambles.

[finsobruce]

Sept 12, 2016 21:58:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 12, 2016 21:54:34 GMT lennon said:

My (totally uninformed) prediction is as follows:

Con 45%
LD 25%
UKIP 12%
Lab 10%
Grn 5%
Other 3%

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

I don't know about 25% but as everybody should know of old the Lib Dems national poll rating bears no relation to their performance in by-elections, especially as they take them so seriously and (as we have seen in local results) are now bouncing back freed from the shackles of being in coalition with the Tories.  This isn't a terrible constituency for Labour by any means, so a combatative candidate should be able to make a go of it. But we will see.

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 12, 2016 23:00:59 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 12, 2016 21:58:06 GMT Andrew_S said:

I'm not sure why the LDs might rise from 7% to 25% when their national poll rating hasn't shifted since the general election.

I don't know about 25% but as everybody should know of old the Lib Dems national poll rating bears no relation to their performance in by-elections, especially as they take them so seriously and (as we have seen in local results) are now bouncing back freed from the shackles of being in coalition with the Tories.  This isn't a terrible constituency for Labour by any means, so a combatative candidate should be able to make a go of it. But we will see.

Yes, Labour could establish themselves as the 2nd party here.  I just feel that it is coming at a bad time for them, with an unresolved civil war (and hence possible selection issues); unless perhaps the by election is just after the leadership issue is resolved and there is a bit of a bounce under a renewed mandate for Corbyn (or just conceivably new manager syndrome under Smith) and a load of enthusiastic new members rushes out to campaign.

[finsobruce]

Sept 12, 2016 23:08:50 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 12, 2016 23:00:59 GMT finsobruce said:

I don't know about 25% but as everybody should know of old the Lib Dems national poll rating bears no relation to their performance in by-elections, especially as they take them so seriously and (as we have seen in local results) are now bouncing back freed from the shackles of being in coalition with the Tories.  This isn't a terrible constituency for Labour by any means, so a combatative candidate should be able to make a go of it. But we will see.

Yes, Labour could establish themselves as the 2nd party here.  I just feel that it is coming at a bad time for them, with an unresolved civil war (and hence possible selection issues); unless perhaps the by election is just after the leadership issue is resolved and there is a bit of a bounce under a renewed mandate for Corbyn (or just conceivably new manager syndrome under Smith) and a load of enthusiastic new members rushes out to campaign.

Second place has been a bit of a movable feast between Labour and the Lib Dems since the constituency was established. Although of course, all bets are off if the Give Me Back Elmo candidate stands again. (Actually a new Fathers for Justice advocate).

[Adam in Stroud]

Sept 12, 2016 23:17:19 GMT finsobruce said:

Second place has been a bit of a movable feast between Labour and the Lib Dems since the constituency was established. Although of course, all bets are off if the Give Me Back Elmo candidate stands again. (Actually a new Fathers for Justice advocate).

Wessex Regionalists put up their leader last time and he got into three figures, so it's all to play for really. 

[finsobruce]

Sept 12, 2016 23:30:09 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Sept 12, 2016 23:17:19 GMT finsobruce said:

Second place has been a bit of a movable feast between Labour and the Lib Dems since the constituency was established. Although of course, all bets are off if the Give Me Back Elmo candidate stands again. (Actually a new Fathers for Justice advocate).

Wessex Regionalists put up their leader last time and he got into three figures, so it's all to play for really. 

Muriel Burton stood for the Liberals in '74, '79 (Mid oxfordshire)  and '87. Not quite an Alan Butt Philip or Revd Roger Roberts but worth noting anyway. The 2010 Labour candidate was a Haringey councillor Joe Goldberg.