Witney

[neilm]

Interview comments that he wants to continue in public service. Ambassador to the US?

[Andrew_S]

[Deleted]

Sept 12, 2016 14:24:28 GMT Andrew_S said:

Maybe Osborne will follow suit.

Osborne will hang on, in case Brexit goes pear shaped, so he can return going 'I told you so'.

[Deleted]

I think I am right in saying no PM has served fewer years in parliament (both houses) than Cameron's fifteen and a bit.

[mondialito]

Sept 12, 2016 16:35:05 GMT @strinity said:

I think I am right in saying no PM has served fewer years in parliament (both houses) than Cameron's fifteen and a bit.

This sounds like another thread for the upcoming 'Prime Ministerial Records' section...

[AdminSTB]

Sept 12, 2016 15:39:53 GMT Andrew_S said:

Norman Tebbit said that within days of the referendum.

[gwynthegriff]

Sept 12, 2016 15:31:23 GMT Chris said:

You can be sure that Ian Hudspeth is going to throw his hat in the ring, though I sincerely doubt DC will help him try and secure the nomination.

Will be interesting to see whether National Health Action try and make a big splash over the issues surrounding nearby Banbury's hospital troubles...

An opening for our NHA representative on here?

Which prompts me to wonder who would be the ideal (or otherwise) Vote UK slate in Witney?

[Khunanup]

Sept 12, 2016 18:11:05 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Sept 12, 2016 15:31:23 GMT Chris said:

You can be sure that Ian Hudspeth is going to throw his hat in the ring, though I sincerely doubt DC will help him try and secure the nomination.

Will be interesting to see whether National Health Action try and make a big splash over the issues surrounding nearby Banbury's hospital troubles...

An opening for our NHA representative on here?

Which prompts me to wonder who would be the ideal (or otherwise) Vote UK slate in Witney?

Crimson King for us.

[johnloony]

At any time between 1993 and 1997, Labour winning a by-election in Witney with a swing of 22% or more would have been a doddle. The fact that David Cameron has decided to resign is an indication of how weak Labour is now, when it would in normal circumstances be riding high in the mid-term of a Conservative government.

I am a bit disappointed at his decision, because it helps to cement the growing trend of politicians (Blair, David Miliband) to cop out instead of carrying on calmly. Being a backbench MP is a worthy job in itself, and there is no reason to suppose that he would be a distraction. It's not as if he would have spent 4 years sulking or rebelling like Heath did.

[curiousliberal]

Sept 12, 2016 14:40:52 GMT edinburghtory said:

I don't think any of the 9 Tory MPs is likely to be the candidate, don't think any of them is highly rated enough for CCHQ to move them there.

McVey could be an exception to this. She was a minister, and a reasonably well-known one at that (without being too controversial, IIRC). 

[finsobruce]

Sept 12, 2016 18:28:11 GMT johnloony said:

At any time between 1993 and 1997, Labour winning a by-election in Witney with a swing of 22% or more would have been a doddle. The fact that David Cameron has decided to resign is an indication of how weak Labour is now, when it would in normal circumstances be riding high in the mid-term of a Conservative government.

I am a bit disappointed at his decision, because it helps to cement the growing trend of politicians (Blair, David Miliband) to cop out instead of carrying on calmly. Being a backbench MP is a worthy job in itself, and there is no reason to suppose that he would be a distraction. It's not as if he would have spent 4 years sulking or rebelling like Heath did.

mid-term??!!??

[Antiochian]

Sept 12, 2016 15:39:34 GMT neilm said:

Interview comments that he wants to continue in public service. Ambassador to the US?

Squiring Boris and Liam around Washington as they try to advance Britain up Obama's non-existent queue for trade deals? I suspect not...

[Chris]

Sept 12, 2016 18:11:05 GMT gwynthegriff said:

Sept 12, 2016 15:31:23 GMT Chris said:

You can be sure that Ian Hudspeth is going to throw his hat in the ring, though I sincerely doubt DC will help him try and secure the nomination.

Will be interesting to see whether National Health Action try and make a big splash over the issues surrounding nearby Banbury's hospital troubles...

An opening for our NHA representative on here?

Which prompts me to wonder who would be the ideal (or otherwise) Vote UK slate in Witney?

There is already a local NHA clique that would supply a candidate. It would be Clive Peedell (http://nhap.org/dr-clive-peedell/) or Roseanne Edwards (http://nhap.org/roseanne-edwards/).

If they wanted to focus on the hospital in Banbury then they'd opt for local "journalist" Roseanne. The hospital isn't in the constituency, but it is used by constituents.

[Izzyeviel]

Any idea when this will happen?

[AdminSTB]

Sept 12, 2016 19:30:10 GMT Izzyeviel said:

Any idea when this will happen?

There seems to be no reason why there would be a significant delay. By-elections tend to come about more quickly when they are brought about by resignation as opposed to death. Probably late October/early November?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Depends if Cameron tipped off his Association before time that he would be resigning so they could be prepared. It sounds like he didn't, so it will take some time to get everything ready.

[johnloony]

Sept 12, 2016 18:38:48 GMT finsobruce said:

Sept 12, 2016 18:28:11 GMT johnloony said:

At any time between 1993 and 1997, Labour winning a by-election in Witney with a swing of 22% or more would have been a doddle. The fact that David Cameron has decided to resign is an indication of how weak Labour is now, when it would in normal circumstances be riding high in the mid-term of a Conservative government.

I am a bit disappointed at his decision, because it helps to cement the growing trend of politicians (Blair, David Miliband) to cop out instead of carrying on calmly. Being a backbench MP is a worthy job in itself, and there is no reason to suppose that he would be a distraction. It's not as if he would have spent 4 years sulking or rebelling like Heath did.

mid-term??!!??

My definition of the "mid-term" of a parliament is the entire period of time which is more than one year away from a general election.

[AdminSTB]

Sept 12, 2016 18:28:11 GMT johnloony said:

At any time between 1993 and 1997, Labour winning a by-election in Witney with a swing of 22% or more would have been a doddle. The fact that David Cameron has decided to resign is an indication of how weak Labour is now, when it would in normal circumstances be riding high in the mid-term of a Conservative government.

I am a bit disappointed at his decision, because it helps to cement the growing trend of politicians (Blair, David Miliband) to cop out instead of carrying on calmly. Being a backbench MP is a worthy job in itself, and there is no reason to suppose that he would be a distraction. It's not as if he would have spent 4 years sulking or rebelling like Heath did.

I agree entirely.

In spite of what the opinion polls are telling us, I would expect the Conservative share of the vote to take a rather bigger knock than might otherwise be expected, simply because the party will be deprived of the "leader's bonus" (the Lab to Con swing was 9.4% in 2010). What isn't certain is who will benefit the most. Second placed Labour already had a bit of a boost last year thanks to the Lib Dem slump. UKIP, the Lib Dems (who came 2nd in 2010 and 4th in 2015) and the Greens all saved their deposits last year - which of them, if any, could be best placed to benefit from Labour's present predicament?

[greenhert]

Good question, swanarcadian. I personally hope the Green Party will be, of course.

As for the by-election itself, I must sake it does not make any real sense (objectively speaking) for David Cameron to stand down straight away rather than just serve out the rest of his term, since he has no real reason to resign his seat now.

[AdminSTB]

NB. If you want to tag me, you're best typing "admin" , then my username will appear. I had to take over the Administrator account previously occupied by Kris when I took over from him. As you can see, my old Forum Pollster account is now dormant.