Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,248
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 24, 2022 23:30:18 GMT
"The Almanac of Council Elections" by Adam Gray: Owning only 2017 (& 2018 Metro.) i would be looking for more - can they be found anywhere? They can be found in my storage cupboard! DM me if you want them. I have a few spares leftover of 2018 (2 vols other than London: Scotland and Wales), 2019 (2 vols - councils in Beds-N Yorks and Notts to Worcs +NI) and 2021 (2 vols: counties and everything else). Or download the PDFs here: www.agrayarea.info/resultsGreat - a real thesaurus!
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,248
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2022 0:42:05 GMT
"The Almanac of Council Elections" by Adam Gray: Owning only 2017 (& 2018 Metro.) i would be looking for more - can they be found anywhere? They can be found in my storage cupboard! DM me if you want them. I have a few spares leftover of 2018 (2 vols other than London: Scotland and Wales), 2019 (2 vols - councils in Beds-N Yorks and Notts to Worcs +NI) and 2021 (2 vols: counties and everything else). Or download the PDFs here: www.agrayarea.info/resultsShortly after my birth&name-day i received from You a great parcel - i thank You endlessly! Saved them all and am looking forward to have a closer look!
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,248
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Post by Georg Ebner on Apr 25, 2022 0:45:28 GMT
P.scr.: The only i as an ignorant foreigner can give You in return is to report, that for 2014 volumes 3 & 4 were mixed.
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shadsy
Non-Aligned
Smarkets' Head of Politics
Posts: 96
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Post by shadsy on Apr 25, 2022 8:45:07 GMT
If anyone would like to come along to a local elections preview night at Smarkets HQ on Wednesday, please let me know - you can send me an email politics@smarkets.com. The offices are in St Katharine Docks, near Tower Bridge and we'll have a some drinks available.
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Post by batman on Apr 25, 2022 9:10:00 GMT
Rentoul? I'd need drink of a very strong nature. (Knew him slightly at Cambridge - he wasn't involved in politics at all there.)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,678
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2022 14:40:59 GMT
Not much change there then, arguably
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Post by jm on Apr 25, 2022 15:23:51 GMT
"The Almanac of Council Elections" by Adam Gray: Owning only 2017 (& 2018 Metro.) i would be looking for more - can they be found anywhere? They can be found in my storage cupboard! DM me if you want them. I have a few spares leftover of 2018 (2 vols other than London: Scotland and Wales), 2019 (2 vols - councils in Beds-N Yorks and Notts to Worcs +NI) and 2021 (2 vols: counties and everything else). Or download the PDFs here: www.agrayarea.info/resultsI think I have found my new favourite website! Do you have SOPN for previous years, out of interest?
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Post by Adam Gray on Apr 25, 2022 15:41:16 GMT
They can be found in my storage cupboard! DM me if you want them. I have a few spares leftover of 2018 (2 vols other than London: Scotland and Wales), 2019 (2 vols - councils in Beds-N Yorks and Notts to Worcs +NI) and 2021 (2 vols: counties and everything else). Or download the PDFs here: www.agrayarea.info/resultsI think I have found my new favourite website! Do you have SOPN for previous years, out of interest? Thanks! I have all SOPNs from 2013 onwards - but not online. Putting them online was an idea that came this year, after last year they went onto google drive, which only a couple of us could access. If you want specific SOPNs it's probably best to DM me or email agray72 at gmail dot com.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,867
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Post by jamie on Apr 30, 2022 10:09:50 GMT
Does anybody have an estimate of what % of people use only 1 vote for council elections with more than 1 seat up (the bloc electoral system)?
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Post by johnloony on May 1, 2022 1:45:02 GMT
Does anybody have an estimate of what % of people use only 1 vote for council elections with more than 1 seat up (the bloc electoral system)? My experience of local elections in Croydon in 3-member wards is that the turnout is usually about 2.7 votes per ballot paper, and that almost all ballot papers have either 3 votes or 1 vote on them. Very few have 2 votes. That roughly works out as 15% plumping for 1 candidate. Very approximately.
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Post by John Chanin on May 1, 2022 6:45:48 GMT
Does anybody have an estimate of what % of people use only 1 vote for council elections with more than 1 seat up (the bloc electoral system)? You have to account for the fact that parties often put up a single candidate in a multi-member ward that they are not going to win. Some party supporters will then obviously only use one vote. Others will cast a negative vote against the likely winners for someone else. Then there are those who vote for a sole independent because the parties are “all the same”. Two smaller groups are those voting for a friend, and those people who haven’t twigged they have more than one vote. An overall figure is unlikely therefore to be very meaningful. But it’s easy enough to make estimates for specific wards, as the number of valid votes cast is published, although of course you have people using two votes in a three member ward as well. I could churn through my data for Birmingham and give figures if convinced that the result would be useful.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,867
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Post by jamie on May 1, 2022 9:55:38 GMT
An overall figure is unlikely therefore to be very meaningful. But it’s easy enough to make estimates for specific wards, as the number of valid votes cast is published, although of course you have people using two votes in a three member ward as well. I could churn through my data for Birmingham and give figures if convinced that the result would be useful. Thanks but you don’t have to go to that much effort.
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froome
Green
Posts: 4,385
Member is Online
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Post by froome on May 1, 2022 10:28:43 GMT
Does anybody have an estimate of what % of people use only 1 vote for council elections with more than 1 seat up (the bloc electoral system)? My experience of local elections in Croydon in 3-member wards is that the turnout is usually about 2.7 votes per ballot paper, and that almost all ballot papers have either 3 votes or 1 vote on them. Very few have 2 votes. That roughly works out as 15% plumping for 1 candidate. Very approximately. My experience in 2 member wards in Bath is probably about 10% overall, though much higher in wards where some of the parties have only one candidate. I've stood a few times as a lone Green candidate in 2 member wards and I would guess that at least 25% of my votes will be from voters just using one of their votes. Some voters will only vote once because they want to support a popular incumbent or someone who is well known locally, even when they have a running mate. In these cases, you sometimes find huge differences between the votes for one candidate and another from the same party. And there are always some who, despite plenty of information to tell them otherwise, think they only have one vote. In these cases, the candidate in the preferred party who comes first on the ballot paper normally benefits.
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Post by redvers on May 7, 2022 16:21:05 GMT
Heard there were only 3 councils in the 1990s that stayed in overall Conservative control - Huntingdonshire, Wokingham, and Runnymede. Is this true?
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Post by andrewp on May 7, 2022 16:25:11 GMT
Heard there were only 3 councils in the 1990s that stayed in overall Conservative control - Huntingdonshire, Wokingham, and Runnymede. Is this true? No. in 1996, at the lowest, they were down to about 13 councils. Wokingham was LD then, and Runnymede was NOC Buckinghamshire CC, Arun, Broxbourne, Hambleton, Huntingdonshire, Macclesfield, South Staffordshire, Spelthorne, Surrey Heath, Bromley, K and C, Wandsworth, Westminster.
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Post by redvers on May 7, 2022 16:28:40 GMT
Heard there were only 3 councils in the 1990s that stayed in overall Conservative control - Huntingdonshire, Wokingham, and Runnymede. Is this true? No. in 1996, at the lowest, they were down to about 13 councils. Wokingham was LD then, and Runnymede was NOC Buckinghamshire CC, Arun, Broxbourne, Hambleton, Huntingdonshire, Macclesfield, South Staffordshire, Spelthorne, Surrey Heath, Bromley, K and C, Wandsworth, Westminster. Thought so, someone was insistent about it online and it really did seem odd. Thanks!
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Post by andrewp on May 7, 2022 16:35:05 GMT
No. in 1996, at the lowest, they were down to about 13 councils. Wokingham was LD then, and Runnymede was NOC Buckinghamshire CC, Arun, Broxbourne, Hambleton, Huntingdonshire, Macclesfield, South Staffordshire, Spelthorne, Surrey Heath, Bromley, K and C, Wandsworth, Westminster. Thought so, someone was insistent about it online and it really did seem odd. Thanks! I think Thursdays results, and the removal of Westminster, and some one might correct me on this, mean that the only authorities that have had a continuous Conservative majority since 1974 are now Buckinghamshire, Broxbourne and Kensington and Chelsea.
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Post by batman on May 7, 2022 19:32:50 GMT
have the Tories ever lost control of South Staffordshire? Not aware they have
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Post by andrewp on May 7, 2022 19:34:56 GMT
have the Tories ever lost control of South Staffordshire? Not aware they have I thought they hadn’t but according to my book 1973 was Con 24, Ind 15, Lab 8, Lib 1 so NOC technically, although I bet it was Tory lead.
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Post by batman on May 7, 2022 20:10:24 GMT
that does count as NOC. Thanks.
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