Ask the Forum thread- psephology

[nyx]

Jul 7, 2024 20:04:19 GMT batman said:

Macclesfield's new MP is the first-ever Labour MP to be called either Tim or Timothy.

But that's only because he goes by his middle name! His full name by which he was sworn in is Juan Timothy Charles Roca.

Jul 6, 2024 12:43:27 GMT greatkingrat said:

Closest 3-way marginals

SITTINGBOURNE AND SHEPPEY - Lab 29.1, Con 28.2, Ref 25.6
BASILDON AND BILLERICAY - Con 30.6, Lab 30.6, Ref 27.0
DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY - Con 29.6, SNP 27.5, Lab 25.7
SOUTH WEST NORFOLK - Lab 26.7, Con 25.3, Ref 22.5
HORNCHURCH AND UPMINSTER - Con 32.5, Ref 28.4, Lab 27.6

Closest 4-way marginals
BURNLEY - Lab 31.7, LD 23.1, Con 20.3, Ref 19.5
ISLE OF WIGHT EAST - Con 30.6, Ref 20.8, Grn 18.5, Lab 18.4
SPELTHORNE - Con 30.4, Lab 27.0, LD 18.9, Ref 17.9

Closest 5-way marginal
MONTGOMERYSHIRE AND GLYNDWR - Lab 29.4, Ref 20.6, Con 18.0, LD 15.0, PC 13.1

Closest 3-way marginals not involving Reform (I think, may have missed some):

Dumfries and Galloway (mentioned by you)
East Antrim - DUP 28.9, Alliance 25.6, UUP 23.9
Exmouth and Exeter East - Con 28.7, Lab 28.5, LD 22.2
Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe - LD 29.5, Con 26.3, Lab 21.3
Aberdeen South - SNP 32.8, Lab 24.7, Con 24.4
Blackburn - Ind 27.0, Lab 26.7, Workers 18.3
Aylesbury - Lab 30.2, Con 28.9, LD 20.9
North Antrim - TUV 28.3, DUP 27.2, Sinn Fein 18.7

The lack of Con-Lab-LD marginals overall is interesting.
Chingford and Woodford Green - Con 35.6, Lab 25.8, Ind 25.7

[johnloony]

How many constituencies had a net swing from Conservative to Labour of more than 20%? I’ve been skimming through the paper version of the results in the Times thingy, and I’ve found 12 so far just in the constituencies starting with A or B. This is remarkable in historic terms, because (if I remember correctly) there has only ever been one swing of more than 20% between Con and Lab in a general election before (Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 (which obviously had its own special circumstances)).

[john07]

Jul 21, 2024 16:21:20 GMT johnloony said:

How many constituencies had a net swing from Conservative to Labour of more than 20%? I’ve been skimming through the paper version of the results in the Times thingy, and I’ve found 12 so far just in the constituencies starting with A or B. This is remarkable in historic terms, because (if I remember correctly) there has only ever been one swing of more than 20% between Con and Lab in a general election before (Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 (which obviously had its own special circumstances)).

North Northumberland had a swing of 21.6% if my arithmetic is correct.

The Conservative vote was down by 29.7% and Labour up by 13.5%.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 21, 2024 16:21:20 GMT johnloony said:

How many constituencies had a net swing from Conservative to Labour of more than 20%? I’ve been skimming through the paper version of the results in the Times thingy, and I’ve found 12 so far just in the constituencies starting with A or B. This is remarkable in historic terms, because (if I remember correctly) there has only ever been one swing of more than 20% between Con and Lab in a general election before (Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 (which obviously had its own special circumstances)).

There are 12 (of 18 seats in total) in Essex alone (7 of them in seats the Conservatives held)

[kevinlarkin]

Jul 21, 2024 16:21:20 GMT johnloony said:

How many constituencies had a net swing from Conservative to Labour of more than 20%? I’ve been skimming through the paper version of the results in the Times thingy, and I’ve found 12 so far just in the constituencies starting with A or B. This is remarkable in historic terms, because (if I remember correctly) there has only ever been one swing of more than 20% between Con and Lab in a general election before (Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 (which obviously had its own special circumstances)).

wmcname	pctCon	pctLab	chgCon	chgLab	swingConLab
Norfolk South West	25.3	26.72	-43.35	8.39	-25.87
Cannock Chase	29.21	36.48	-39.1	11.1	-25.1
Renfrewshire East	16.91	43.67	-18.23	31.29	-24.76
Ayrshire Central	14.84	43.68	-19.93	29.53	-24.73
Amber Valley	25.22	37.02	-38.63	10.21	-24.42
Selby	25.58	46.3	-32.37	16.47	-24.42
Falkirk	8.39	43.03	-17.54	30.96	-24.25
Thurrock	21.32	42.73	-38.58	9.79	-24.18
Telford	21.43	44.71	-37.94	10.38	-24.16
Great Yarmouth	24.62	31.8	-41.16	6.65	-23.91
Havant	30.78	30.56	-34.6	12.59	-23.6
Basildon South & East Thurrock	25.69	30.54	-39.75	6.98	-23.37
Tamworth	31.87	35.03	-34.85	11.73	-23.29
Wellingborough & Rushden	27.85	40.32	-34.51	12.06	-23.28
Sittingbourne & Sheppey	28.21	29.07	-38.31	8.18	-23.25
Alloa & Grangemouth	7.59	43.78	-17.21	29.28	-23.24
Aldershot	29.01	40.71	-27.82	18.59	-23.2
Chatham & Aylesford	28.62	33.51	-37.27	9.08	-23.18
Boston & Skegness	33.4	18.86	-43.03	3.3	-23.17
Bathgate & Linlithgow	7.47	47.01	-17.17	28.21	-22.69
Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket	30.05	32.9	-32.87	12.06	-22.47
Castle Point	38.11	23.27	-38.43	6.46	-22.45
Rayleigh & Wickford	37.01	24.64	-35.92	8.97	-22.45
Lichfield	33.44	35.09	-30.67	14.07	-22.37
Clacton	27.9	16.21	-43.98	0.64	-22.31
Warwickshire North & Bedworth	30.6	35.97	-35.28	9.2	-22.24
South Holland & the Deepings	38.02	19.78	-37.9	6.57	-22.23
Basildon & Billericay	30.64	30.59	-35.24	8.99	-22.12
Brigg & Immingham	37.42	29.79	-34.53	9.58	-22.05
Derbyshire South	29.66	38.77	-32.46	11.58	-22.02
Kingswinford & South Staffordshire	40.28	26.33	-34.05	9.51	-21.78
Congleton	30.9	37.66	-29.74	13.56	-21.65
Northumberland North	26.18	36.56	-29.75	13.44	-21.59
Essex North West	35.6	30.8	-26.1	17.02	-21.56
Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes	22.58	41.88	-33.03	9.68	-21.36
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.09	39.8	-16.76	25.88	-21.32
Cornwall South East	27.92	31.79	-31.11	11.48	-21.29
Gillingham & Rainham	28.17	37.83	-33.13	9.42	-21.28
Mansfield	30.58	39.06	-33.76	8.75	-21.26
Sherwood Forest	27.53	38.72	-33.28	9.17	-21.22
Stirling & Strathallan	19.02	33.86	-16.01	26.21	-21.11
Dover & Deal	21.71	39.64	-35.17	7.03	-21.1
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	8.3	44.86	-15.96	25.94	-20.95
Braintree	35.52	28.03	-31.95	9.85	-20.9
Weald of Kent	39.84	23.23	-32.12	9.17	-20.65
Blackpool South	15.65	48.08	-33.19	7.97	-20.58
Brentwood & Ongar	36.69	22.93	-31.86	9.24	-20.55
Daventry	33.67	27.99	-30.83	10.22	-20.52
Harlow	31.85	37.62	-32.7	8.32	-20.51
Kettering	28.25	35.85	-32.03	8.94	-20.49
Hertford & Stortford	29.74	38.53	-25.95	14.85	-20.4
East Kilbride & Strathaven	7.59	48.56	-13.77	27	-20.39
Colchester	23.5	41.88	-28.83	11.82	-20.33
Wetherby & Easingwold	39.41	30.14	-28.77	11.89	-20.33
Redditch	33.09	34.95	-31.58	9.06	-20.32
Plymouth Moor View	28.14	41.22	-31.69	8.93	-20.31
Wyre Forest	32.09	30.29	-33.1	7.45	-20.28
Maldon	38.87	19.7	-33.36	7.05	-20.21
Stourbridge	30.76	38.46	-31.03	9.35	-20.19
Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr	17.97	29.38	-35.66	4.58	-20.12
Wiltshire East	35.7	25.71	-30.23	9.83	-20.03

[johnloony]

Jul 22, 2024 12:35:12 GMT kevinlarkin said:

Jul 21, 2024 16:21:20 GMT johnloony said:

How many constituencies had a net swing from Conservative to Labour of more than 20%? I’ve been skimming through the paper version of the results in the Times thingy, and I’ve found 12 so far just in the constituencies starting with A or B. This is remarkable in historic terms, because (if I remember correctly) there has only ever been one swing of more than 20% between Con and Lab in a general election before (Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 (which obviously had its own special circumstances)).

wmcname	pctCon	pctLab	chgCon	chgLab	swingConLab
Norfolk South West	25.3	26.72	-43.35	8.39	-25.87
Cannock Chase	29.21	36.48	-39.1	11.1	-25.1
Renfrewshire East	16.91	43.67	-18.23	31.29	-24.76
Ayrshire Central	14.84	43.68	-19.93	29.53	-24.73
Amber Valley	25.22	37.02	-38.63	10.21	-24.42
Selby	25.58	46.3	-32.37	16.47	-24.42
Falkirk	8.39	43.03	-17.54	30.96	-24.25
Thurrock	21.32	42.73	-38.58	9.79	-24.18
Telford	21.43	44.71	-37.94	10.38	-24.16
Great Yarmouth	24.62	31.8	-41.16	6.65	-23.91
Havant	30.78	30.56	-34.6	12.59	-23.6
Basildon South & East Thurrock	25.69	30.54	-39.75	6.98	-23.37
Tamworth	31.87	35.03	-34.85	11.73	-23.29
Wellingborough & Rushden	27.85	40.32	-34.51	12.06	-23.28
Sittingbourne & Sheppey	28.21	29.07	-38.31	8.18	-23.25
Alloa & Grangemouth	7.59	43.78	-17.21	29.28	-23.24
Aldershot	29.01	40.71	-27.82	18.59	-23.2
Chatham & Aylesford	28.62	33.51	-37.27	9.08	-23.18
Boston & Skegness	33.4	18.86	-43.03	3.3	-23.17
Bathgate & Linlithgow	7.47	47.01	-17.17	28.21	-22.69
Bury St Edmunds & Stowmarket	30.05	32.9	-32.87	12.06	-22.47
Castle Point	38.11	23.27	-38.43	6.46	-22.45
Rayleigh & Wickford	37.01	24.64	-35.92	8.97	-22.45
Lichfield	33.44	35.09	-30.67	14.07	-22.37
Clacton	27.9	16.21	-43.98	0.64	-22.31
Warwickshire North & Bedworth	30.6	35.97	-35.28	9.2	-22.24
South Holland & the Deepings	38.02	19.78	-37.9	6.57	-22.23
Basildon & Billericay	30.64	30.59	-35.24	8.99	-22.12
Brigg & Immingham	37.42	29.79	-34.53	9.58	-22.05
Derbyshire South	29.66	38.77	-32.46	11.58	-22.02
Kingswinford & South Staffordshire	40.28	26.33	-34.05	9.51	-21.78
Congleton	30.9	37.66	-29.74	13.56	-21.65
Northumberland North	26.18	36.56	-29.75	13.44	-21.59
Essex North West	35.6	30.8	-26.1	17.02	-21.56
Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes	22.58	41.88	-33.03	9.68	-21.36
Ayrshire North & Arran	14.09	39.8	-16.76	25.88	-21.32
Cornwall South East	27.92	31.79	-31.11	11.48	-21.29
Gillingham & Rainham	28.17	37.83	-33.13	9.42	-21.28
Mansfield	30.58	39.06	-33.76	8.75	-21.26
Sherwood Forest	27.53	38.72	-33.28	9.17	-21.22
Stirling & Strathallan	19.02	33.86	-16.01	26.21	-21.11
Dover & Deal	21.71	39.64	-35.17	7.03	-21.1
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	8.3	44.86	-15.96	25.94	-20.95
Braintree	35.52	28.03	-31.95	9.85	-20.9
Weald of Kent	39.84	23.23	-32.12	9.17	-20.65
Blackpool South	15.65	48.08	-33.19	7.97	-20.58
Brentwood & Ongar	36.69	22.93	-31.86	9.24	-20.55
Daventry	33.67	27.99	-30.83	10.22	-20.52
Harlow	31.85	37.62	-32.7	8.32	-20.51
Kettering	28.25	35.85	-32.03	8.94	-20.49
Hertford & Stortford	29.74	38.53	-25.95	14.85	-20.4
East Kilbride & Strathaven	7.59	48.56	-13.77	27	-20.39
Colchester	23.5	41.88	-28.83	11.82	-20.33
Wetherby & Easingwold	39.41	30.14	-28.77	11.89	-20.33
Redditch	33.09	34.95	-31.58	9.06	-20.32
Plymouth Moor View	28.14	41.22	-31.69	8.93	-20.31
Wyre Forest	32.09	30.29	-33.1	7.45	-20.28
Maldon	38.87	19.7	-33.36	7.05	-20.21
Stourbridge	30.76	38.46	-31.03	9.35	-20.19
Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr	17.97	29.38	-35.66	4.58	-20.12
Wiltshire East	35.7	25.71	-30.23	9.83	-20.03

Wow! 61! Diolch

[mick745]

Why does Commons Hansard list every member taking the oath but Lords Hansard doesnt (all it says is several lords took the oath)?

Is there a list of lords who took the oath listed anywhere?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 27, 2024 10:20:44 GMT mick745 said:

Why does Commons Hansard list every member taking the oath but Lords Hansard doesnt (all it says is several lords took the oath)?

Is there a list of lords who took the oath listed anywhere?

It's in the Minutes, and will eventually be in the Journals of the House.

As of the end of business on Friday, 741 members of the House of Lords had formally recorded allegiance to Charles III and taken their seats: 132 affirmed, while 609 took an oath. There are 53 members who have not yet taken their seats in this Parliament, plus 19 who have not taken their seats but have taken leave of absence, two who would otherwise be eligible for membership but are disqualified because of holding senior Judicial offices, and one who would otherwise be eligible but is suspended from membership.

[kitesurfer]

What was the breakdown of the popular vote share in Surrey?

[The Bishop]

Unfortunately, in many places garnering county wide totals has been made harder by the adoption of cross-border constituencies for the first time in living memory.

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 28, 2024 9:23:02 GMT The Bishop said:

Unfortunately, in many places garnering county wide totals has been made harder by the adoption of cross-border constituencies for the first time in living memory.

That is the main reason for having opposed that development

[minionofmidas]

Specifically, for the 11 constituencies wholly under Surrey County Council
LD 35.3 Con 33.2 Lab 14.0 Ref 12.3 G 4.4
Including Farnham & Bordon (64% in Surrey)
LD 35.2 Con 33.4 Lab 14.0 Ref 12.2 G 4.4
Also including Windsor (15% in Surrey, why would you though)
LD 34.2 Con 33.6 Lab 14.6 Ref 12.1 G 4.5

And let's not get into historical values of "in Surrey"

[manchesterman]

We know that Sunak flirted with the possible ignominy of being the first incumbent PM to lose his seat in the General Election, but managed to survive in the end; however it could be argued that Liz Truss carved out her own special place in history as she did lose her seat and had been PM during the dissolved parliament (albeit she wasn't the incumbent PM at the time of dissolution). I'm wondering if that has ever happened before?

[stb12]

Aug 2, 2024 17:27:47 GMT manchesterman said:

We know that Sunak flirted with the possible ignominy of being the first incumbent PM to lose his seat in the General Election, but managed to survive in the end; however it could be argued that Liz Truss carved out her own special place in history as she did lose her seat and had been PM during the dissolved parliament (albeit she wasn't the incumbent PM at the time of dissolution). I'm wondering if that has ever happened before?

Not sure on the question but I don’t think that’s an accurate description of Sunak to be fair, Richmond and Northallerton wasn’t close even with the drop in Tory vote share so I think that’s one the rumour mill got wrong

[Sibboleth]

It was clearly never actually close or even close to being close; any panic will have been an odd vanity. On the latter... well, Ramsay MacDonald and H.H. Asquith are your answers there, and also Arthur Balfour.

[stb12]

Aug 2, 2024 17:38:55 GMT Sibboleth said:

It was clearly never actually close or even close to being close; any panic will have been an odd vanity. On the latter... well, Ramsay MacDonald and H.H. Asquith are your answers there, and also Arthur Balfour.

If there’s any election that a sitting PM could have lost their seat then it probably would have been this one but I don’t think Sunak and Richmond were ever likely contenders. It’s an incredibly safe seat used to high profile figures representing them and while he may not have the personal vote of Hague I don’t believe there was any negative personal vote either

[manchesterman]

I never expected SUnak to lose tbf, but there were several MRP projections that were giving it to Labour.

[stb12]

Aug 2, 2024 18:09:06 GMT manchesterman said:

I never expected SUnak to lose tbf, but there were several MRP projections that were giving it to Labour.

The MRPs always produce something strange but at least a couple of national newspapers were playing up the possibility from what I remember

[greatkingrat]

In numerical terms, Starmer was closer to losing his seat than Sunak was.

[parlconst]

Aug 2, 2024 17:27:47 GMT manchesterman said:

We know that Sunak flirted with the possible ignominy of being the first incumbent PM to lose his seat in the General Election, but managed to survive in the end; however it could be argued that Liz Truss carved out her own special place in history as she did lose her seat and had been PM during the dissolved parliament (albeit she wasn't the incumbent PM at the time of dissolution). I'm wondering if that has ever happened before?

Yes - Arthur Balfour lost in Manchester East in 1906, having been Prime Minister up until a couple of months previously.