Ask the Forum thread- psephology

[andrewp]

Jul 7, 2024 12:27:12 GMT johnloony said:

(1) If I remember correctly, the 2001 general election (with a turnout of 59%) had 609 constituencies in which the number of electors who did not vote was more than the number of votes for the winning candidate. A question for the cleverclogs spreadsheetologists: What is the equivalent number this time? I guess it's even more, due to the split of the vote being more various.

(2) There has been a lot of news reporting of the new youngest MP (Sam Carling, 10th April 2002). A few days ago, someone said that there were several Labour candidates in their early 20s. Are there any other new MPs who are older than Sam Carling but younger than Keir Mather (29th January 1998)?

Michael Crick thinks that Josh Dean, 24, Hertford & Stortford, Euan Stainbank, 24, Falkirk and Joshua Reynolds, 25, Maidenhead are all older than Sam Carling but younger than Keir Mather.

[johnloony]

Another question for the clever spreadsheetologists:

The Lib Dems (very efficiently) got 72 first places, only 27 2nd places, and 11% of the seats from 12% of the votes.
What proportion of Lib Dem votes were cast for Lib Dem MPs?
What proportion of (each other party) votes were cast for (that party's) MPs?

[Deleted]

Jul 7, 2024 18:20:24 GMT johnloony said:

Another question for the clever spreadsheetologists:

The Lib Dems (very efficiently) got 72 first places, only 27 2nd places, and 11% of the seats from 12% of the votes.
What proportion of Lib Dem votes were cast for Lib Dem MPs?
What proportion of (each other party) votes were cast for (that party's) MPs?

Using the Twitter user ElectionMapsUK's spreadsheet, I get 46.0% of Lib Dem votes cast in seats they won, compared to:

Lab: 78.3% (Such a high figure is inevitable for a party with a sizeable majority)

Con: 31.1%

Rfm: 2.0%

Grn: 4.6%

SNP: 19.7%

PC: 35.7%

[johnloony]

[islington]

Jul 7, 2024 19:27:20 GMT johnloony said:

That is a spectacular diagram and demonstrates a degree of targeting that I for one did not think possible.

With regard to my hat:

• I'm not going to eat it (sorry)
  
• But I freely acknowledge I was talking through it
• And with all the grace I can muster (probably not very much) I doff it to the Lib Dems.
  

I now contemplate with dread a future in which I am going to have to say highly complimentary things about the Lib Dems as political operators.

[batman]

There are of course many interesting electoral facts arising from this election. Here are a few that come to mind :

Labour won a majority of seats in the following ceremonial counties as they now exist for the first time ever : Cornwall, Kent, Berkshire, Suffolk (Labour won half the seats there in 1945).

Labour won a full slate of seats for the first time ever in Merseyside, Derbyshire & Northumberland.

This is the first time at least in modern times that the Father of the House has lost his seat. In 2019 Dennis Skinner would have been Father of the House had he not been defeated, but he had not yet achieved that distinction.

The incumbent in Ynys Mon/Anglesey was defeated (by Plaid Cymru). Although it has generally been a marginal seat, this had not happened since 1951.

Labour has never before won all or both (as applicable) seats in the city of Portsmouth. Of course, this also applies to Southend & Bournemouth where Labour had never previously won either seat, and also Worthing although neither Worthing constituency consists entirely of Worthing borough wards.

As has been noted, Liz Truss became the first former Prime Minister of modern times to lose their seat.

The number of independents elected to the House is the highest of modern times.

Traditional Unionist Voice won its first-ever seat in the House of Commons. Reform UK won its first parliamentary elections (of course they already had an MP following the defection of Lee Anderson).

The city of Leicester elected 3 MPs of different party appellations for the first time at least since WWII.

Macclesfield's new MP is the first-ever Labour MP to be called either Tim or Timothy.

3 Conservative MPs called Fletcher were elected in 2019 for the first time. All 3 lost their seats to Labour this time. The same fate befell the 2 Conservatives called Hunt elected for the first time in 2019, but of course not Jeremy Hunt who had first been elected in 2005.

The Conservative MP Alexander Stafford lost his seat to Labour, but his brother Greg was elected in Farnham & Bordon. I don't recall another instance of one brother losing a seat and the other entering the Commons at the same election.

This is the first time in modern times that the Conservatives have had no MPs in Greater Manchester.

Two former Conservative Deputy Prime Ministers lost their seats to Labour. In both cases it was the first time Labour had ever won that seat or its linear predecessors.

I'm sure there are some other noteworthy ones.

[swanarcadian]

Jul 5, 2024 18:44:26 GMT iain said:

Jul 5, 2024 18:33:01 GMT Robert Waller said:

Has anyone yet compiled lists of 2024 results e.g. safest seats, smallest majorities, highest shares per party etc?

It would be really helpful!

You can toggle between different parties here: www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/defence/labour

It's very impressive that they had all this information available so quickly. The Conservatives need 205 gains for an overall majority in 2028/2029, which would need an 8.74% swing from Labour. If I recall correctly, the equivalent figure was 11.5% after 1997.

I have a question of my own: is there anywhere online with all the constituency results on one single webpage?

[Robert Waller]

Jul 7, 2024 20:04:19 GMT batman said:

There are of course many interesting electoral facts arising from this election. Here are a few that come to mind :

Labour won a majority of seats in the following ceremonial counties as they now exist for the first time ever : Cornwall, Kent, Berkshire, Suffolk (Labour won half the seats there in 1945).

Labour won a full slate of seats for the first time ever in Merseyside, Derbyshire & Northumberland.

This is the first time at least in modern times that the Father of the House has lost his seat. In 2019 Dennis Skinner would have been Father of the House had he not been defeated, but he had not yet achieved that distinction.

The incumbent in Ynys Mon/Anglesey was defeated (by Plaid Cymru). Although it has generally been a marginal seat, this had not happened since 1951.

Labour has never before won all or both (as applicable) seats in the city of Portsmouth. Of course, this also applies to Southend & Bournemouth where Labour had never previously won either seat, and also Worthing although neither Worthing constituency consists entirely of Worthing borough wards.

As has been noted, Liz Truss became the first former Prime Minister of modern times to lose their seat.

The number of independents elected to the House is the highest of modern times.

Traditional Unionist Voice won its first-ever seat in the House of Commons. Reform UK won its first parliamentary elections (of course they already had an MP following the defection of Lee Anderson).

The city of Leicester elected 3 MPs of different party appellations for the first time at least since WWII.

Macclesfield's new MP is the first-ever Labour MP to be called either Tim or Timothy.

3 Conservative MPs called Fletcher were elected in 2019 for the first time. All 3 lost their seats to Labour this time. The same fate befell the 2 Conservatives called Hunt elected for the first time in 2019, but of course not Jeremy Hunt who had first been elected in 2005.

The Conservative MP Alexander Stafford lost his seat to Labour, but his brother Greg was elected in Farnham & Bordon. I don't recall another instance of one brother losing a seat and the other entering the Commons at the same election.

This is the first time in modern times that the Conservatives have had no MPs in Greater Manchester.

Two former Conservative Deputy Prime Ministers lost their seats to Labour. In both cases it was the first time Labour had ever won that seat or its linear predecessors.

I'm sure there are some other noteworthy ones.

This is all splendid. I hope you don't mind me pinching one or two for the Times House of Commons!

Also, in addition to the discussion of young MPs above. what about ones straight in to my oldies list?
I know about Rupert Lowe, former Southampton FC chairman (Reform, Great Yarmouth) born 31.10.57 - any more well into their 60s+ ?

[YL]

Jul 7, 2024 20:21:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

Also, in addition to the discussion of young MPs above. what about ones straight in to my oldies list?
I know about Rupert Lowe, former Southampton FC chairman (Reform, Great Yarmouth) born 31.10.57 - any more well into their 60s+ ?

Jim Allister (TUV, North Antrim) is 71, born 2 April 1953.

[Merseymike]

Paul Davies, for Colne Valley - definitely in his 60's. edgbaston will know?

[andrea]

Lorraine Beavers, for Blackpool North, was 60 years old when selected (2023) according to the Blackpool's The Gazette.
Patricia Ferguson, Glasgow West, was born in 1958

[edgbaston]

Jul 7, 2024 20:36:32 GMT Merseymike said:

Paul Davies, for Colne Valley - definitely in his 60's. edgbaston will know?

Paul is 66 turning 67 later this year

[nodealbrexiteer]

Jul 7, 2024 20:21:53 GMT Robert Waller said:

Jul 7, 2024 20:04:19 GMT batman said:

There are of course many interesting electoral facts arising from this election. Here are a few that come to mind :

Labour won a majority of seats in the following ceremonial counties as they now exist for the first time ever : Cornwall, Kent, Berkshire, Suffolk (Labour won half the seats there in 1945).

Labour won a full slate of seats for the first time ever in Merseyside, Derbyshire & Northumberland.

This is the first time at least in modern times that the Father of the House has lost his seat. In 2019 Dennis Skinner would have been Father of the House had he not been defeated, but he had not yet achieved that distinction.

The incumbent in Ynys Mon/Anglesey was defeated (by Plaid Cymru). Although it has generally been a marginal seat, this had not happened since 1951.

Labour has never before won all or both (as applicable) seats in the city of Portsmouth. Of course, this also applies to Southend & Bournemouth where Labour had never previously won either seat, and also Worthing although neither Worthing constituency consists entirely of Worthing borough wards.

As has been noted, Liz Truss became the first former Prime Minister of modern times to lose their seat.

The number of independents elected to the House is the highest of modern times.

Traditional Unionist Voice won its first-ever seat in the House of Commons. Reform UK won its first parliamentary elections (of course they already had an MP following the defection of Lee Anderson).

The city of Leicester elected 3 MPs of different party appellations for the first time at least since WWII.

Macclesfield's new MP is the first-ever Labour MP to be called either Tim or Timothy.

3 Conservative MPs called Fletcher were elected in 2019 for the first time. All 3 lost their seats to Labour this time. The same fate befell the 2 Conservatives called Hunt elected for the first time in 2019, but of course not Jeremy Hunt who had first been elected in 2005.

The Conservative MP Alexander Stafford lost his seat to Labour, but his brother Greg was elected in Farnham & Bordon. I don't recall another instance of one brother losing a seat and the other entering the Commons at the same election.

This is the first time in modern times that the Conservatives have had no MPs in Greater Manchester.

Two former Conservative Deputy Prime Ministers lost their seats to Labour. In both cases it was the first time Labour had ever won that seat or its linear predecessors.

I'm sure there are some other noteworthy ones.

This is all splendid. I hope you don't mind me pinching one or two for the Times House of Commons!

Also, in addition to the discussion of young MPs above. what about ones straight in to my oldies list?
I know about Rupert Lowe, former Southampton FC chairman (Reform, Great Yarmouth) born 31.10.57 - any more well into their 60s+ ?

Don't know if you were intrigued as to why the number of exit poll polling station was down by 11 from 144 to 133,i certainly was!

[johnloony]

The result of Inverness, Skye & West Ross was declared at 5:51pm on Saturday. When were the last times a general election result was declared on the Saturday and/or later than 5:51pm?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Saturday declarations for the Scottish highlands and islands constituencies used to be common.

Harlow was delayed until Saturday in 2005.

[johnloony]

Jul 7, 2024 12:27:12 GMT johnloony said:

(1) If I remember correctly, the 2001 general election (with a turnout of 59%) had 609 constituencies in which the number of electors who did not vote was more than the number of votes for the winning candidate. A question for the cleverclogs spreadsheetologists: What is the equivalent number this time? I guess it's even more, due to the split of the vote being more various.

I’ve just skimmed through the results in the Times thingy, and if I have counted correctly there are 42 constituencies in which the MP got more cotes than the non-voters. This is far more than I had expected. I was expecting a few, but because of the votes being split between more parties, I was expecting it to be fewer than in 2001.

[johnloony]

We've probably had this before, but I can't remember: I notice that the general election in 2019 had almost the same number of votes for (a) Conservative and (b) Labour + Lib Dem combined. What would have been the result (in seats) if there had been a combined Lab/LD candidate in each constituency, with no other changes in the votes for any candidates?

[greatkingrat]

I make it Con 321, Lab/LD 260, SNP 45, PC 4, Grn 1, Oth 19. So basically no change from 2017. Conservatives one seat short of a majority (if you ignore the SF members).

[mick745]

Can anyone provide the geographical size of parliamentary cobstituencies please, 2024 boundaries. Many thanks

[Andrew_S]

Jul 14, 2024 15:14:57 GMT mick745 said:

Can anyone provide the geographical size of parliamentary cobstituencies please, 2024 boundaries. Many thanks

Is this any good?

geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/e489d4e5fe9f4f9caa6af161da5442af_0/explore?location=54.705651%2C-3.313840%2C6.00&showTable=true

It looks like Islington North is no longer the smallest seat in area. Bethnal Green & Stepney is.